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WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
 

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2009 4:47 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

So let me get this straight: common doesn't count until BOTH/ALL teams have faced them?
Yes. In the tradition of CBS Sports and nfl.com, this is the case.

The premise is "If the season ended today, the seeding would be..." Therefore, Cincinnati and Oakland cannot be treated as common opponents until both/all teams have faced them.

Myself, agn, Wayne (and probably others), would like the premise to be, "Based on all tie-breakers that will apply at the end of the season, the current seeding is...". Then as long as Cincinnati and Oakland are on the Jet's and Raven's schedules, they can be considered common opponents (whether the games have happened yet or not). Then, and only then, could we use common games records of 3-1, 3-2, and 0-4 to break the 3-way tie between the Jets, Denver, and Baltimore.

-Brett






Since: Dec 1, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2009 4:16 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

So let me get this straight: common doesn't count until BOTH/ALL teams have faced them?



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 30, 2009 2:04 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Matt....u r right on the MIN and DAL wins being the only NFC games needed to create the ALL REPEAT Wild Card weekend.  I was focused on GB-ARZ being the 4th and 5th seeds.   Here's updated list:

WEEK 17 Winners to create an ALL-REPEAT Wild Card weekend :
-NYJ (vs cin)
- HOU (vs ne)

- DAL (vs phi)
- MIN (vs. nyg)
- KC (vs den)
- OAK (vs bal)
Thanks for the catch!  My head is still spinning from Sunday night.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 30, 2009 1:51 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Brett....and kmvenne....

This is what I had sent some interested folks on the NE-CIN SOV situation (particularly those Jets types wondering how they could play the Patriots).  Let me know if it jives with your understanding since I know you spent a lot of time chatting about this.

NE-CIN SOV breakdown...
- NE has four-win lead on CIN right now (65 vs 61) on SOV.  One BAL win cancels out for both teams (CIN still has another win over BAL)
- Since ATL vs TB this week would be 1 win/1 loss for NE this week AND CHI vs DET would be same for CIN...those two games cancel each other out (NE leads 66 to 62)
- Also...since NE has already clinched Strength of Schedule (SOS), CIN must beat NE outright (gain 5 wins) to win the SOV tiebreaker
- If NE-CIN end up tied at 10-6, that means NYJ beat CIN and gives NE another win and a 5 win lead at 67 to 62

At 10-6....the following needs to occur for CIN to beat NE on SOV (gain 6 wins):
Cleveland must beat Jacksonville (CIN +2 and avoids NE +1)
Pittsburgh must beat Miami (CIN +2 and avoids NE +1)
Indianapolis must beat Buffalo (avoids NE +2)
And Any FOUR of the following must happen:
  Baltimore beats Oakland (CIN +1)
  Green Bay beats Arizona (CIN +1)
  Kansas City beats Denver (CIN +1)
  New Orleans beats Carolina (avoids NE +1)
  Seattle beats Tennessee (avoids NE +1)

- If NE-CIN end up tied at 11-5, that would add HOU (+8 wins) to NE and NYJ (+8 wins) to CIN...which is a wash but does avoid adding a Jets win to NE that occured at 10-6

At 11-5...the following needs to occur for CIN to beat NE on SOV (gain 5 wins):
Cleveland must beat Jacksonville (CIN +2 and avoids NE +1)
Pittsburgh must beat Miami (CIN +2 and avoids NE +1)
Indianapolis must beat Buffalo (avoids NE +2)
Any THREE of the following must happen:
  Baltimore beats Oakland (CIN +1)
  Green Bay beats Arizona (CIN +1)
  Kansas City beats Denver (CIN +1)
  New Orleans beats Carolina (avoids NE +1) 
  Seattle beats Tennessee (avoids NE +1)

OR...BUF can beat IND giving NE +2 but then ALL FIVE of the last five games (BAL win, GB win, KC win, NO win and SEA win) MUST happen.




Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2009 12:55 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Wrong.  If Bal wins, they get #5 (Beat Pit in div record, then beat Den H2H)

That leaves PIT and Denver (since you assume NYJ and Hou lose).  Pitt wins based on H2H.



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2009 12:49 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

OAK and CIN don't count for either team in COMMON GAMES as of end week 16, since it is not yet a Common Game -- they will turn into common games after week 17.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2009 12:00 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues


Joe, can you have scenarios with ties added to the site for the AFC?  They are in there for the NFC and have been in there for each conference in past weeks.  It'd be interesting to know those scenarios as well.  Thanks.


Let me try this...

(All tie-breakers are the same at 8-7-1 as they are at 9-7-0).

Explanatory notes are at the bottom. Sorry in advance if the notes are confusing and/or redundant in some instances.



This is tough! Someone please look over Pittsburgh and Houston for me. Actually, all of them!


Baltimore:
a)   Bal tie + 3 of these 4: NYJ loss, Den loss or tie, Pit loss or tie, Hou loss or tie

NY Jets:
a)   NYJ tie + 3 of these 4: Bal loss or tie, Den loss or tie, Pit loss or tie, Hou loss or tie

Denver:
a)   Den tie + Hou win + NYJ loss + Bal loss + Pit loss
b1) Den tie + Hou tie + 2 of these 3: NYJ loss, Bal loss, Pit loss or tie.
b2) Den tie + Hou loss + 2 of these 3: NYJ loss, Bal loss, Pit loss.

Pittsburgh:
a1) Pit tie + Hou win + NYJ loss + Bal loss + Den loss or tie
a2) Pit tie + Hou tie + NYJ loss + Bal loss + Den loss
b)   Pit tie + Hou loss + 2 of these 3: NYJ loss, Bal loss, Den loss or tie

Houston:
a)   Hou tie + 3 of these 4: NYJ loss, Bal loss, Den loss, Pit loss or tie



Denver(a)
- "Hou win" can be removed from the equation; if NYJ lose, Bal loses, and Pit loses, it doesn't matter what Houston does.
- However, leaving "Hou win" in the equation makes it easier to see how the three scenarios are derived.

Pittsburgh(a1)
- "Hou win" cannot be removed from this equation because if Hou ties, then this scenario is insufficient in the case where Den ties.

Pittsburgh(a1, a2)
- If you could combine Pit(a1) and Pit(a2) into a single scenario, you could then remove "Hou win or tie". However, they can't be combined.
- They are separate scenarios to make sure that "Hou ties and Den ties" is excluded.
- (If Hou wins, Den can lose or tie . But, if Hou ties, Denver must lose ).

Denver(b1, b2)
- Den(b1) and Den(b2) are separate scenarios to make sure that "Hou loses and Pit ties" is excluded.
- (If Hou ties, Pit can lose or tie . But, if Hou loses, Pit must lose ).




Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 29, 2009 7:38 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

WEEK 17 Winners to create an ALL-REPEAT Wild Card weekend :
-NYJ (vs cin)
- HOU (vs ne)

- DAL (vs phi)
- GB (vs ariz)

- MIN (vs. nyg)
- KC (vs den)
- OAK (vs bal)
Joe,

I hate to argue (as I am probably wrong), but I think as long as Minnesota wins and Philadelphia loses, either a GB win or an Ari win will do the trick.  An Arizona win would make Arizona the three seed and Green Bay the 6th.  A Green Bay win would make Arizona the 4th and Green Bay the 5th.  So, I think it is just important that that game not end in a tie.

In the AFC, a Jets win almost guarantees (the possible perfect storm of SoV exception and NE loss) a rematch with Cincinnati.  On the other hand, getting Houston the 6th seed is a little more difficult (I guess it is the same number of games, but the results seem less likely) as Denver and Baltimore must lose.

The interesting tidbit is that the NFC games would repeat locations while both AFC games would switch.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 29, 2009 6:22 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the common games rule min. of 4 games, which both teams (NYJ and Bal) have?  If so, then NYJ has BAL there (3-1 to 0-4). Doesn't affect the order (of the current seeding: 1 Den, 2 NYJ, 3 BAl) anyhow but just throwing that out there.
Matrix,

Since the Jets have not played Cincinnati yet, Cincinnati is not treated as a common opponent (and neither is Oakland because Baltimore hasn't played Oakland yet). Therefore, if the playoffs started today, their record in common games would be (0-2 for Bal, and 2-1 for NYJ). This is why common games are ignored for the current seeding, "if they playoffs started today".

I agree though, with agn. If cbs sports got rid of the notion "if the playoffs started today", then the fact that Cin is on NYJ's schedule would make Bal's losses against Cin count in Bal's common games record (and the fact that Oak is on Bal's schedule, would make NYJ's win against Oak count in NYJ's common games record). Then, Matrix, you would be correct; NYJ would be 3-1, and Bal would be 0-4, and it would be common games that breaks a 2-way tie between Bal and NYJ.

When agn said you left out Den, this is what agn was referring to:
Since Den too played Oak, Cin, NE, and Ind, if we were to use common games between NYJ and Bal, we would also use them in the 3-way Den-Bal-NYJ tie (to determine the current Wild Card #1). In this case, the records would be NYJ 3-1, Den 3-2, Bal 0-4, and the Jets (not Denver) would be the current Wild Card #1. Baltimore would then be the current Wild Card #2 based on their head-to-head win over Denver.

So, actually, yes; it would affect the order of the current seeding. It would be [1 NYJ, 2 Bal, 3 Den] instead of [1 Den, 2 NYJ, 3 Bal].

If cbs sports use agn's other suggestion; not using the wording, "finishes ahead of", then I think it would be appropriate to say that currently NYJ have a 3-1 to 0-4 lead over Bal in common games, since no longer would we be presuming the season ends today.

In other words, not using "finishes ahead of" would enable us to consider a game to be common if we know it will be common by season's end.

-Brett





Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 29, 2009 5:56 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

agn:

You are right on about using the common game tiebreaker if the common games is not complete.

After all in a division hth they haven't played both games yet, but use it. the same with conference record, as well as SOV. Also division record like one team being 2-1 and the other 0-1 or 1-0

Otherwise, they should wait till there is a mathmatical clinching of that tiebreaker


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