Blog Entry

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
 

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Comments

Since: Mar 14, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 7:57 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Ignore the duplicate parley jokes. I went back and added the "if Cincy loses" part, and thought I deleated my first closing line. Guess I didn't hahahaha.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 7:57 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

I am interested to know, what is the most number of duplicated games from the last week of the regular season to the Wildcard weekend (or Divisional when that was the first week of playoffs)?  We could have as many as three this week, which is kind of crazy.  The Cincinnati-NY Jets game is going to be an interesting one.  I think teams SHOULD always try to win games, but unfortunately, the Colts have deemed that unimportant.  And now that Manning got all that rest is he going to be significantly better in the playoffs?  I mean sitting out the 4th quarter definitely will re-energize him for games 3,4, and 6 weeks out, right?



Since: Mar 14, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 7:56 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Query: if New England wins, what perfect storm has to occur for Cincy to still have a shot at the #3 seed?


If NE wins, these things MUST happen:

Cincy wins, obv.

Browns MUST beat Jacksonville.
Colts MUST beat the Bills.

Steelers MUST beat the Dolphins.

Then Cincy has to get at least two of these three results:

Baltmore over Oakland.

Chiefs over the Broncos.

Green Bay over the Cards.

If they get all three of those results, they need one of these two things to happen:

Seahawks over Tennessee

Panthers over Saints

If they only get 2 of those three results from list two, they need both Seahawk AND Panther wins.


You could make a lot of money betting in Vegas on the sequence of events that would have to transpire to get the Bengals the 3 seed.

Also of note, if Cincy loses, then every single thing on this list becomes a MUST, plus the Pats MUST lose, then and only then the Bengals get the 3 seed. That would make a pretty strong parley in Vegas. May be able to retire off of a $10 bet on all that happening, hahahaha.



Since: Sep 15, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 7:55 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

So barring some strange combination that reverses the SoV, New England is the #3 seed with a win over Houston; Cincinnati gets the #3 seed with a win over the Jets AND a New England loss at Houston.

 

Assuming that to be true, here are the possible playoff matchups for New England.


 

    <li class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; color: black; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in;">

    NE wins, BAL wins, NYJ wins: Ravens at Patriots

    1a. NE wins, BAL wins, NYJ loses, PIT wins: Steelers at Patriots

    1b. NE wins, BAL wins, NYJ loses, PIT loses, DEN wins: Broncos at Patriots

    1c. NE wins, BAL wins, NYJ loses, PIT loses, DEN loses, JAX wins: Jaguars at Patriots

    1d. NE wins, BAL wins, NYJ loses, PIT loses, Jax loses: Dolphins at Patriots

 

    <li class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; color: black; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in;">

    NE wins, BAL loses, NYJ wins: Steelers at Patriots

    2a. NE wins, BAL loses, NYJ loses; DEN wins, PIT wins: Broncos at Patriots

    2b. NE wins, BAL loses, NYJ loses, DEN loses, PIT wins, JAX wins: Jaguars at Patriots

    2c. NE wins, BAL loses, NYJ loses, DEN loses, PIT loses, JAX wins: Dolphins at Patriots

    2d. NE wins, BAL loses, NYJ loses, DEN loses, PIT loses, JAX loses: Broncos at Patriots

 

  1. NE loses, BAL loses, DEN wins: Broncos at Patriots

    3a. NE loses, BAL loses, DEN loses: Texans at Patriots

 

  1. NE loses, BAL wins, NYJ wins: Ravens at Patriots

    4a. NE loses, BAL wins, NYJ loses, DEN wins: Broncos at Patriots

    4b. NE loses, BAL wins, NYJ loses, DEN loses: Texans at Patriots




Since: Dec 3, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:47 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Query: if New England wins, what perfect storm has to occur for Cincy to still have a shot at the #3 seed?
Thought: If NE wins, I think Cincinnati rests its starters this week.  They have a distinct advantage in the playoffs if they lose to the Jets on Sunday night and then have to play them again the following week.
The Jets obviously need this game.  They are going to have to pull out all of the stops to win - meaning, Cincinnati will see everything the Jets have on Sunday, making it much easier to prepare for the Jets the following week.  If the Bengals don't go the Colts route and the Jets still win, they've created two problems for themselves: first, the Jets also get the preparation advantage, having seen Palmer and company.  And second, psychologically, the Jets come into Cincy saying "we beat these guys a week earlier."  If the Jets beat the Bengals B team, they don't come in with the same level of confidence.
Also, since Indy has already bitten the bullet and thought more about playoff advantage than winning in the regular season, Cincy won't be criticized at all for doing the same thing.
Bottom line: if New England wins, I think Carson Palmer and Ochocinco don't leave their NYC hotel room.  If New England loses, I think Bengals management has a tougher call to make.  They could still rest their starters and have the Jets scenario laid out above.  Or, knowing who the 6 seed is at that point, they may decide that the 3 seed is a better place to be, both for the first round opponent and the San Diego/Indy choice.



Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:37 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Here is another way of looking at what thenflrules has posted (this is corrected from the Week 16 thread where I had the Jets over Denver at 8-8):

AFC #3 seed
Patriots with win and Bengals loss
Bengals with win and Patriots loss
If Patriots and Bengals both win or both lose, 3 seed will be decided on strength-of-victory.
Strength of victory for Bengals vs Patriots: (replace a team with 1 if they win next week; 0 if they lose):
Cincinnati: 2xCLE + 2xPIT + BAL + KC + GB
New England: 5 + 2xBUF + MIA + NYJ + JAX + TEN + CAR [wins SOS if SOV is tied]
[If BUF, JAX, or MIA wins, NE clinches this tiebreaker]

AFC #5 seed
Jets with win
Ravens with win and NYJ loss
Broncos with win and NYJ/BAL losses and (PIT loss or HOU win) or NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/HOU/JAX losses.
Steelers with win and NYJ/BAL/HOU losses
Texans with win and NYJ/BAL/DEN losses
Jaguars with win and NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/HOU losses

AFC #6 seed
Ravens with win and NYJ win
Broncos with win and ([NYJ win and BAL loss] or [BAL win and NYJ loss]) and (PIT loss or HOU win) or win and NYJ/BAL/HOU losses and PIT win
Steelers with win and ([NYJ win and BAL loss] or [BAL win and NYJ loss]) and HOU loss or win and NYJ/BAL/DEN losses and HOU win
Texans with win and (exactly one of NYJ/BAL/DEN win)
Jaguars with win and (exactly one of NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/HOU win)

If out of (NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/HOU/JAX), the only team to win is:
PIT: Broncos are 6th (CR over HOU, CG over BAL, SOV over NYJ)
DEN: Dolphins are 6th (CR over HOU, SOV over BAL)
BAL/HOU/NYJ/JAX: Broncos are 6th (SOV over BAL and/or MIA)
none of them: Dolphins are 6th

Any AFC wild card
Jets with win
Ravens with win
Broncos with win and (NYJ loss or BAL loss) and (PIT loss or HOU win) or win and NYJ/BAL loss or (4 out of 5: NYJ/JAX/BAL/HOU/PIT losses).
Steelers with win and (NYJ loss or BAL loss) and HOU loss or NYJ/BAL/DEN loss.
Texans with win and (no more than one of NYJ/BAL/DEN win).
Jaguars with win and (no more than one of NYJ/BAL/DEN/PIT/JAX win).
Dolphins with win and NYJ/BAL/HOU/JAX loss


[can I just submit a LOL at the "Score" attached to each post? thenflrules goes and posts a thorough scenario list and gets "Score: -348".]



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:36 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Don't bank on a Bengal A game. Especially if New England wins earlier in the day. Then as long as Cincinnati doesn't pull out an SoV miracle, Cincinnati will have nothing to play for! -Exactly what Jets fans have been asking for!

I wouldn't underestimate the Jets defense though. The Bengals offense may have their hands full in a playoff game against them. If I were the Bengals, and the Ravens are sitting on the table, I might try to win Sunday- to face the Ravens in the playoffs instead of the Jets.

The Ravens seem to find ways to lose and the Bengals seem to have their number this year.

-Brett



Since: Oct 16, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 6:09 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues


so...the Bengals go to NY Sunday night to play the final game...

They lose, they get the Jets in a rematch in Cincy the following week..
They win, they potentially allow the Steelers in, perhaps even having to play them?

Don't bank on a Bengal A game..



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:44 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Joe,

I usually post these each year.  As you said, this was one of the toughest ones I can remember (2002 perhaps).  Anyway, here goes the Week 17 seeding chart:

WEEK 17 AFC SEEDING SCENARIOS (assumes no ties occur):

Here is a glance at AFC Playoff seeding possibilities pending the results of the following Week 17 games that have bearing on the #3, #4, #5 and #6 seeds:

Jac at Cle 1:00 (CBS), NE at Hou 1:00 (CBS), Pit at Mia 1:00 (CBS), Bal at Oak 4:15 (CBS), KC at Den 4:15 (CBS), Cin at NYJ 8:20 (NBC)

Already determined:  1-Ind  2-SD

      
;    Winning team listed      
;     &nbs
p; =     &nbs
p; Final AFC Seeds (3-6)

1)  JAC...NE...PIT...BAL...KC...CIN&nbs
p; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-BAL, 6-PIT

2)  JAC...NE...PIT...BAL...KC...NYJ&nbs
p; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

3)  JAC...NE...PIT...BAL...DEN...CIN&nb
sp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-BAL, 6-PIT

4)  JAC...NE...PIT...BAL...DEN...NYJ&nb
sp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

5)  JAC...NE...PIT...OAK...KC...CIN&nbs
p; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-PIT, 6-JAC

6)  JAC...NE...PIT...OAK...KC...NYJ&nbs
p; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-PIT

7)  JAC...NE...PIT...OAK...DEN...CIN =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-PIT, 6-DEN

8)  JAC...NE...PIT...OAK...DEN...NYJ&nb
sp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-PIT

9)  JAC...NE...MIA...BAL...KC...CIN&nbs
p; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-BAL, 6-JAC

10) JAC...NE...MIA...BAL...KC...NYJ&nbs
p; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

11) JAC...NE...MIA...BAL...DEN...CIN =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-BAL, 6-DEN

12) JAC...NE...MIA...BAL...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

13) JAC...NE...MIA...OAK...KC...CIN&nbs
p; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-JAC, 6-DEN

14) JAC...NE...MIA...OAK...KC...NYJ&nbs
p; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-JAC

15) JAC...NE...MIA...OAK...DEN...CIN =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-DEN, 6-JAC

16) JAC...NE...MIA...OAK...DEN...NYJ&nb
sp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-DEN

17) JAC...HOU..PIT..BAL...KC...CIN 
; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-BAL, 6-HOU

18) JAC...HOU..PIT...BAL...KC...NYJ&nbs
p; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

19) JAC...HOU..PIT...BAL...DEN...CIN =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-BAL, 6-DEN

20) JAC...HOU..PIT...BAL...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

21) JAC...HOU..PIT...OAK...KC...CIN&nbs
p; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-HOU, 6-PIT

22) JAC...HOU..PIT...OAK...KC...NYJ&nbs
p; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-HOU

23) JAC...HOU..PIT...OAK...DEN...CIN =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-DEN, 6-HOU

24) JAC...HOU..PIT...OAK...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-DEN

25) JAC...HOU..MIA...BAL...KC...CIN&nbs
p; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-BAL, 6-HOU

26) JAC...HOU..MIA...BAL...KC...NYJ&nbs
p; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

27) JAC...HOU..MIA...BAL...DEN...CIN =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-BAL, 6-DEN

28) JAC...HOU..MIA...BAL...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

29) JAC...HOU..MIA...OAK...KC...CIN&nbs
p; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-HOU, 6-JAC

30) JAC...HOU..MIA...OAK...KC...NYJ&nbs
p; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-HOU

31) JAC...HOU..MIA...OAK...DEN...CIN =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-DEN, 6-HOU

32) JAC...HOU..MIA...OAK...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-DEN

33) CLE....NE....PIT...BAL....KC...CIN =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-BAL, 6-PIT

34) CLE....NE....PIT...BAL....KC...NYJ&
nbsp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

35) CLE....NE....PIT...BAL...DEN...CIN&
nbsp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-BAL, 6-PIT

36) CLE....NE....PIT...BAL...DEN...NYJ&
nbsp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

37) CLE....NE....PIT...OAK...KC...CIN&n
bsp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-PIT, 6-DEN

38) CLE....NE....PIT...OAK...KC...NYJ&n
bsp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-PIT

39) CLE....NE....PIT...OAK...DEN...CIN =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-PIT, 6-DEN

40) CLE....NE....PIT...OAK...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-PIT

41) CLE....NE....MIA...BAL....KC...CIN&
nbsp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-BAL, 6-DEN

42) CLE....NE....MIA...BAL....KC...NYJ&
nbsp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

43) CLE....NE....MIA...BAL...DEN...CIN&
nbsp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-BAL, 6-DEN

44) CLE....NE....MIA...BAL...DEN...NYJ&
nbsp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

45) CLE....NE....MIA...OAK...KC...CIN&n
bsp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-DEN, 6-MIA

46) CLE....NE....MIA...OAK...KC...NYJ&n
bsp; =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-DEN

47) CLE....NE....MIA...OAK...DEN...CIN =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-DEN, 6-MIA

48) CLE....NE....MIA...OAK...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE, 4-CIN, 5-NYJ, 6-DEN

49) CLE...HOU...PIT....BAL....KC...CIN&
nbsp; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-BAL, 6-HOU

50) CLE...HOU...PIT....BAL....KC...NYJ&
nbsp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

51) CLE...HOU...PIT....BAL...DEN...CIN =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-BAL, 6-DEN

52) CLE...HOU...PIT....BAL...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

53) CLE...HOU...PIT....OAK...KC...CIN&n
bsp; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-HOU, 6-PIT

54) CLE...HOU...PIT...OAK...KC...NYJ&nb
sp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-HOU

55) CLE...HOU...PIT...OAK...DEN...CIN =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-DEN, 6-HOU

56) CLE...HOU...PIT...OAK...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-DEN

57) CLE...HOU...MIA...BAL....KC...CIN&n
bsp; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-BAL, 6-HOU

58) CLE...HOU...MIA...BAL....KC...NYJ&n
bsp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

59) CLE...HOU...MIA...BAL...DEN...CIN&n
bsp; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-BAL, 6-DEN

60) CLE...HOU...MIA...BAL...DEN...NYJ&n
bsp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-BAL

61) CLE...HOU...MIA...OAK...KC...CIN&nb
sp; =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-HOU, 6-DEN

62) CLE...HOU...MIA...OAK...KC...NYJ&nb
sp; =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-HOU

63) CLE...HOU...MIA...OAK...DEN...CIN =  3-CIN, 4-NE, 5-DEN, 6-HOU

64) CLE...HOU...MIA...OAK...DEN...NYJ =  3-NE*, 4-CIN*, 5-NYJ, 6-DEN


* Pending NE/CIN SOV results.  Currently SOV records: NE 64-86, CIN 60-89.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com