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Blog Entry

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
 

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 4, 2010 12:57 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

In case my last post is misunderstood, as it usually is by someone...I was just stating what I think to be an interesting fact - I'm not crying over the matchups being different.Smile

Not to be like Matt, but...Smile

Matt...the Patriots had SoV clinched by 1 game after the 1:00pm games.

With a loss to Houston , the Patriots only needed a Bills win to clinch a tie in SoV. - At this point, you can factor in a Jets win for NE's SoV, since a Jets win over the Bengals is the only way the Bengals could finish tied with the Patriots.

 Since both the Bills and Panthers won their 1:00pm games, the Patriots had clinched a better SoV - not just a tie. (Moot though, because a tie was all Patriots needed). - The Patriots won by 2 games, thanks to the Titans beating the Seahawks. In any case, it was a lot closer than we thought it would be.



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 4, 2010 12:38 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

2010 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

(Based on 2009 Regular season records)


1T.   Houston.........140-116  .547
1T.   Tennessee.....140-116  .547
3.     Dallas............139-117  .543
4.     Cincinnati.......138-118  .539
5.     Jacksonville....137-119  .535
6.     New England...136-120  .531
7.     N.Y. Giants.....135-121  .527
8.     Washington....134-122  .523
9.     Philadelphia....133-123  .520
10T. Cleveland........132-124  .516
10T. Indianapolis....132-124&n
bsp; .516
12T. Baltimore........130-126  .508
12T. Detroit............130-126  .508
14T. Chicago..........129-127  .504
14T. Minnesota.......129-127  .504
16T. Buffalo...........128-128  .500
16T. Miami.............128-128  .500
16T. N.Y. Jets.........128-128  .500
16T. Oakland.........128-128  .500
20.   Atlanta...........127-129  .496
21.   Pittsburgh.......126-130  .492
22T. Green Bay.......125-131  .488
22T. Kansas City.....125-131  .488
24.   Denver...........124-132  .484
25.   Tampa Bay.....123-133  .480
26.   Carolina..........122-134  .477
27.   New Orleans....120-136  .469
28.   San Francisco..117-139  .457
29T. San Diego.......116-140  .453
29T. Seattle............116-14
0  .453
31.   St. Louis.........115-141  .449
32.   Arizona...........114-142  .445



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 4, 2010 12:37 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

I was happy to see the Patriots try to win (if not for Brady getting hit in the ribs, I think the Patriots might have won).

Also, give the Jets credit - the Bengals were trying there for awhile and couldn't get anything going!

I do want to point out though....

Had the Colts and Saints (the #1 seeds in the AFC and NFC respectively) tried to win and actually won, then the Bengals would have the #3 seed right now and host the Ravens next week - while the Patriots would be the #4 seed and host the Jets next week.

The reason: New England's SoV got 2 wins from the Bills beating the Colts, and 1 win from the Panthers beating the Saints. (New England ended up winning the SoV tie-breaker by 2 games).



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 4, 2010 12:17 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Matt and Wayne,

The home and away breakdown for 2010 opponents is included in the NFL Record & Fact Book.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 4, 2010 12:07 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

guys...it's all part of a formula for future schedules.  Home and Away is included to guarantee equitable distribution of teams among stadiums over time.

original one i wrote for 32-teams ended with 2009 season...it was an 8-year rotation from 2002-2009.  2010 starts new cycle.



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2010 11:47 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

thenflrules:

Wow the schedule of opponents already!!!

Also wonder how do you determine the home and away games. division opponents is easy.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2010 10:14 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

In case your team was eliminated earlier today (or was already eliminated prior to this week), it's never too early to look ahead to next year.  Here's the opponents for AFC teams in 2010:

I understand how you can figure out whom they play.  What I don't get is how you determine home and away.  Wanna give us a hint?



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2010 9:24 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

In case your team was eliminated earlier today (or was already eliminated prior to this week), it's never too early to look ahead to next year.  Here's the opponents for AFC teams in 2010:

2010 OPPONENTS (AFC):

AFC EAST

BUFFALO BILLS:

Home:  MIA, NE, NYJ, CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, JAC
Away:    MIA, NE, NYJ, BAL, CIN, GB, MIN, KC

MIAMI DOLPHINS:

Home:  BUF, NE, NYJ, CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, TEN
Away:    BUF, NE, NYJ, BAL, CIN, GB, MIN, OAK

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:

Home:  BUF, MIA, NYJ, BAL, CIN, GB, MIN, IND
Away:    BUF, MIA, NYJ, CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, SD

NEW YORK JETS:

Home:  BUF, MIA, NE, BAL, CIN, GB, MIN, HOU
Away:    BUF, MIA, NE, CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, DEN

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE RAVENS:

Home:  CIN, CLE, PIT, BUF, MIA, NO, TB, DEN
Away:    CIN, CLE, PIT, NE, NYJ, ATL, CAR, HOU

CINCINNATI BENGALS:

Home:  BAL, CLE, PIT, BUF, MIA, NO, TB, SD
Away:    BAL, CLE, PIT, NE, NYJ, ATL, CAR, IND

CLEVELAND BROWNS:

Home:  BAL, CIN, PIT, NE, NYJ, ATL, CAR, KC
Away:    BAL, CIN, PIT, BUF, MIA, NO, TB, JAC

PITTSBURGH STEELERS:

Home:  BAL, CIN, CLE, NE, NYJ, ATL, CAR, OAK
Away:    BAL, CIN, CLE, BUF, MIA, NO, TB, TEN

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON TEXANS:

Home:  IND, JAC, TEN, KC, SD, DAL, NYG, BAL
Away:    IND, JAC, TEN, DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS, NYJ

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:

Home:  HOU, JAC, TEN, KC, SD, DAL, NYG, CIN
Away:    HOU, JAC, TEN, DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS, NE

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:

Home:  HOU, IND, TEN, DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS, CLE
Away:    HOU, IND, TEN, KC, SD, DAL, NYG, BUF

TENNESSEE TITANS:

Home:  HOU, IND, JAC, DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS, PIT
Away:    HOU, IND, JAC, KC, SD, DAL, NYG, MIA

AFC WEST

DENVER BRONCOS:

Home:  KC, OAK, SD, HOU, IND, STL, SEA, NYJ
Away:    KC, OAK, SD, JAC, TEN, ARI, SF, BAL

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:

Home:  DEN, OAK, SD, JAC, TEN, ARI, SF, BUF
Away:    DEN, OAK, SD, HOU, IND, STL, SEA, CLE

OAKLAND RAIDERS:

Home:  DEN, KC, SD, HOU, IND, STL, SEA, MIA
Away:    DEN, KC, SD, JAC, TEN, ARI, SF, PIT

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS:

Home:  DEN, KC, OAK, JAC, TEN, ARI, SF, NE
Away:    DEN, KC, OAK, HOU, IND, STL, SEA, CIN

Will post NFC Opponents in the NFC blog.




Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2010 8:19 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

With the CIN/NYJ game playing tonight, and Baltimore will be at New England in either scenario (unless a tie shows up tonight), would the NFL schedule the Baltimore at New England game on Saturday, with Cincinnati's game on Sunday?



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2010 7:29 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Not to be too much like a Brett and re-hash stuff that no longer matters.

Brett,

I kid because I love.Laughing


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