Blog Entry

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
 

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2010 7:25 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

NE already clinched the SOV tiebreaker over CIN....due to BILLS win and CAR win. Joe,

Not to be too much like a Brett and re-hash stuff that no longer matters.  BUT, I believe at the time you wrote this, New England had clinched the tiebreaker, but had only clinched a tie in the SoV.  Of course, as we all know, that's somewhat moot as they had the SoS clearly clinched.  Having said that, I clearly should have noted that in my shortly after 4 PM post. Sorry.



Since: Dec 31, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2010 7:25 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

A bengals win gives them the 3 seed and the patriots the 4 seed. (Correction.)



Since: Dec 31, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2010 7:24 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

It's all very simple now. A Jets win gives them the 5 seed with the Ravens getting the 6th. With the Bengals loss they take the 4 seed with the Pats getting the 3 seed. A Jets loss gives the Bengals the 3 seed. The patriots the 3 seed. The ravens the 5 seed and the Texans the 6 seed.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2010 7:21 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Gone are our hopes of a four game repeat (but a 3-game repeat remains possible)!  New England finally clinched the SoV over Cincinnati.  But for a moment there, I thought Seattle might beat Tennessee.  At any rate, the NY Jets and Cincinnati Bengals are playing the last game of the year.  And it matters!  Particularly to the Houston Texans.
  • If Cincinnati wins, they will be the 3-seed and host Houston.  In this case, New England would be the 4-seed and host Baltimore.
  • If the NY Jets win, they will be the 5-seed and play at Cincinnati.  In this case, New England would be the 3-seed and host Baltimore.









Since: Dec 25, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2010 7:18 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Pittsburgh would be tied with Houston and Denver (and maybe the Jets).  They will also be tied with Baltimore, but the divisional tie would be broken before any inter-divisional tiebreakers.

For Pittsburgh to win a head-to-head tiebreaker, they need to beat all of the teams with which they are tied.  Since they haven't played Houston the head-to-head tiebreaker gets thrown out and they move onto conference record.  Pittsburgh drops out due to having an inferior conference record to Denver.



Since: Feb 3, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2010 6:37 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

why does pit need denver to lose,  pit beat them head to head isnt that the first tiebreaker




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2010 6:18 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

HERE'S WHAT WE KNOW NOW:
- JAC is eliminated with their loss
- MIA is eliminated with their loss
- PIT needs DEN, BAL and NYJ to lose to gain #6 seed
- HOU needs 2 or these three to lose to make playoffs:  DEN, BAL, NYJ
- If all 3 of DEN, BAL and NYJ lose, HOU will be the #5 seed (PIT will be #6)
- DEN has to win to get in now...needs win and either a NYJ or BAL loss to get playoff spot
- CIN can get #3 seed with win- NE has clinched the SOV tiebreaker over CIN...but now needs CIN to lose to get #3 seed.
- NYJ and BAL both still in with a win
- MIN can only be the #2 or 3 seed
- PHI can get #2 seed with win
- MIN will be #2 seed with PHI loss
- If PHI wins, MIN will be #3 seed and host DAL on Wild Card weekend
- ARI and DAL cannot earn a 1st rd bye
- If PHI loses, both NFC Wild Card games will be repeats from wk 17 (GB @ ARI and PHI @ DAL)
- GB will play at ARIZ next week


2009 WEEK 17 TIEBREAKERS VIEWERS GUIDE 

4:15
PM AFC GAMES
:
  • BAL OAK
    • BALTIMORE WIN:
      • Baltimore clinches playoff spot with win and will play at NE Wild Card weekend
      • BAL will be #6 seed with Jets win, #5 seed with Jets loss
      • PIT is eliminated from playoffs
      • HOU needs both DEN and NYJ to lose to make playoffs
      • DEN needs win and NYJ loss
      • HOU and DEN can only be #6 seeds and would play at CIN Wild Card weekend
    • OAKLAND WIN:
      • Baltimore is eliminated from playoffs
      • PIT is still alive but needs DEN loss and NYJ loss
      • HOU needs either a DEN loss or NYJ loss to make playoffs
      • DEN only needs win to get in playoffs
      • DEN and HOU can still be #5 seeds...DEN with win and NYJ loss....HOU with DEN and NYJ losses
  • KC @ DEN
    • DENVER WIN:
      • If BAL loses, DEN is in playoffs
      • If BAL wins, DEN needs NYJ loss to make playoffs
      • PIT is eliminated from playoffs
      • HOU needs both BAL and NYJ to lose to make playoffs
      • If both BAL and NYJ lose, DEN will be #5 seed and play at NE on Wild Card weekend
    • KANSAS CITY WIN:
      • Denver is eliminated from playoffs
      • PIT is still alive and needs BAL and NYJ loss to make playoffs
      • PIT would play at CIN if make playoffs
      • HOU needs either a BAL loss or NYJ loss to make playoffs
 4:15PM NFC GAMES
  • PHI @ DAL
    • DALLAS WIN:
      • Dallas wins NFC East
      • MIN secures #2 seed and 1st Round Bye
      • DAL gets #3 seed with ARI loss
      • DAL is #4 seed with ARI win
      • DAL will host PHI Wild Card weekend
    • PHILADELPHIA WIN:
      • PHI wins NFC East, 1st round bye and #2 seed
      • MIN will be the #3 seed and will host DAL Wild Card weekend
      • DAL will be the #6 seed and play at MIN Wild Card weekend
      • GB-ARIZ is the 4-5 Wild Card game
  • GB @ ARI
    • ARIZONA WIN:
      • ARI will host GB Wild Card weekend
      • ARI will be #4 seed unless DAL beats PHI where ARI will be #3 seed
      • GB will be #5 seed unless DAL beats PHI where GB will be #6 seed
    • GREEN BAY WIN:
      • GB will play at ARI Wild Card weekend
      • GB will be the #5 seed
 



Since: Dec 25, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2010 5:00 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Current AFC wild card scenarios:

All teams remaining are eliminated with a loss.

NYJ and BAL needs no help, only to win their respective games.

DEN need a win and a loss by either BAL or NYJ
HOU needs two of the following three teams to lose: BAL, NYJ, DEN
PIT needs all of the following three teams to lose: BAL, NYJ, DEN



Since: Jan 3, 2010
Posted on: January 3, 2010 4:59 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Ok from what I have figured out :

If the Ravens win they will go to New England next week regardless of 3/6 or 4/5 matchup.
If the Jets win, they play the Bengals again next week.

For Pats fans:

Ravens loss, Den win =   Den at NE next week
Ravens loss, Den loss =  Hou at NE next week
and Ravens win = Ravens at NE next week



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2010 4:45 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

matt,

You also forgot that if Den and Bal lose, Houston clinches.



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