Blog Entry

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
 

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Comments

Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2010 4:42 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Matt...

NE already clinched the SOV tiebreaker over CIN....due to BILLS win and CAR win.




Since: Dec 25, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2010 4:28 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Oddly enough, Cincinatti could actually CLINCH the 3 seed before their Sunday Night game.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2010 4:25 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Here are the 4:15 game scenarios.  The late game scenarios will be added at 7:30-7:45.  New England lost, but they can win the tiebreaker with Cincinnati (should there be one) if any of the following happen:
  1. Tennessee beats Seattle
  2. Oakland beats Baltimore
  3. Arizona beats Green Bay
  4. Denver beats Kansas City

Right now, Pittsburgh and Houston have a chance.  And teams that are playing at 4:15 that have a chance are Denver and Baltimore.  Here is how each result makes a difference.

Baltimore at Oakland
  • If Baltimore wins, Baltimore is in and Pittsburgh is eliminated
  • If Oakland wins, Baltimore is eliminated

Kansas City at Denver
  • If Denver wins, Pittsburgh is eliminated
  • If Kansas City wins, Denver is eliminated


If Baltimore and Denver both win, Houston is eliminated.




Since: Aug 6, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2010 9:04 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Fantastic Job, I have been looking for this breakdown on the web, tough to find...  GO TEXANS!



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2010 11:26 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

wayne...

you wrote:
Hey Joe:

The way the blogs are set up this year is a lot better. then scrolling thru 100 pages or more the old way. Do you think that CBS could have the page numbers at the start of blog comments as it is now done at the end. this would make it faster to get to the latest comments
i agree with you.

Have passed on the comments as I too think the pages should be at the top IN ADDITION to the bottom.

Also...i would be in favor of making the default page that a user goes to when linking to blog post be the LAST PAGE.

Joe



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2010 9:24 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

I know that Jest & Ravens control their own desitiny.
I was looking at who would next get in if only one of those two teams lost and every one else still in the race won.
I looks like Denver is next, but that does not show up in any of your secenarios.
If either Jets and/or Ravens lose, the remaining wildcard spots are filled according to the following steps:

1. DEN win + HOU win -> DEN
2. HOU win -> HOU
3. PIT win -> PIT
4. DEN win + HOU loss -> DEN
5. JAC win -> JAC
6. DEN loss -> DEN
7. MIA win -> MIA






Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2010 9:05 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

In your scenario, PIT only falls out of #5 seed race. They're in again for #6 seed race, starting from the top, that's the rule. NYJ grab #5 seed. Then PIT beats DEN on H2H for #6 seed.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2010 8:26 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Let me clean that comment up. It did not paste very well:

Take this one from the list of 64:
JAC-CLE  NE-HOU  PIT-MIA  BAL-OAK  DEN-KAN  CIN-NYJ  3rd seed  4th seed  5th seed  6th seed
JAC     &n
bsp; 
NE     &nb
sp;   
PIT     &n
bsp; 
BAL     &n
bsp;  
DEN     &n
bsp;  
CIN     &n
bsp; 
3-NE*     
4-CIN*     5-BAL     
6-PIT
Denver looses out on the head to head sweep with BAL & PIT.

However, for this one:
JAC     &n
bsp; 
NE     &nb
sp;   
PIT     &n
bsp; 
OAK     &n
bsp; 
DEN     &n
bsp;   
NYJ     &n
bsp;
3-NE     &
nbsp; 
4-CIN     
 
5-NYJ     
 
6-PIT
Why does PIT get the seed above DEN?
NYJ, PIT & DEN all end up at 9-7.
There is no head to head sweep scenario like the setup with BAL above.
Next breaker is confernce record.
PIT should fall out and loose that breaker to NYJ & DEN which will have superior conference record.

Then the DEN scenario would be to win and a BAL loss and nothing else required.
Houston could win or loose and Denver should still get in.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2010 8:19 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

OK. I see the error in my thinking for one of those scenarios.

Take this one from the list of 64:
<colgroup span="1"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="1" width="64"></col><col style="width: 48pt;" span="6" width="64"></col><col style="width: 48pt;" span="4" width="64"></col></colgroup>JAC-CLENE-HOUPIT-MIABAL-OAKDEN-KANCIN-NYJ3rd seed4th seed5th seed6th seed<colgroup span="1"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="1" width="64"></col><col style="width: 48pt;" span="6" width="64"></col><col style="width: 48pt;" span="4" width="64"></col></colgroup>3)JACNEPITBALDENCIN3-NE*4-CIN*5-BAL6-PIT
Denver looses out on the head to head sweep with BAL & PIT.

However, for this one:
<colgroup span="1"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="1" width="64"></col><col style="width: 48pt;" span="6" width="64"></col><col style="width: 48pt;" span="4" width="64"></col></colgroup>8)JACNEPITOAKDENNYJ3-NE4-CIN5-NYJ6-PIT
Why does PIT get the seed above DEN?
NYJ, PIT & DEN all end up at 9-7.
There is no head to head sweep scenario like the setup with BAL above.
Next breaker is confernce record.
PIT should fall out and loose that breaker to NYJ & DEN which will have superior conference record.

Then the DEN ver scenario would be to win and a BAL loss and nothing else required.
Houston could win or loose and Denver should still get in.



Since: Dec 27, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2010 8:01 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

For Denver, you are missing:
Denver wins & Jets loss OR
Denver wins & Ravens loss.

Cowpokesfan,
   The above scenario can't work, especially if the Pittsburgh Steelers beat Miami in Week 17.  The Steelers would beat the Broncos in any potential head-to-head tiebreaker.  The Broncos would need to have at least two of the three teams between the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers to lose to have a chance at a playoff berth. 



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