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WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
 

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2010 7:21 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Joe,
I see a problem with the scenarios.
I know that Jest & Ravens control their own desitiny.
I was looking at who would next get in if only one of those two teams lost and every one else still in the race won.
I looks like Denver is next, but that does not show up in any of your secenarios.
For Denver, you are missing:
Denver wins & Jets loss OR
Denver wins & Ravens loss.

In addition, you show a bunch of scenarios that take multiple team losses that include Jets or Ravens.
Am I wrong here?
It seems that Denver would only need Jets or Ravens to lose, not one of them and other help.

Cowpokesfan



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2010 1:42 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Hey Joe:

The way the blogs are set up this year is a lot better. then scrolling thru 100 pages or more the old way. Do you think that CBS could have the page numbers at the start of blog comments as it is now done at the end. this would make it faster to get to the latest comments



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2010 1:33 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Chili777:

I don't believe the present NFL playoff system is at fault. Take other sports like MLB,NBA,NHL, if a team is very good they may clinch early. MLB has a 162 game schedule. The teams that could benefit from the team that is resting their players. The behind teams should have won more games earlier in the season. The leading team has no obligation to assist the teams behind who need a favorable result to get in the playoffs(the ones who would be hurt by the team resting players)

Take this years PRO BOWL which is being played the week before the SUPER BOWL. I heard that the stars in the SUPER BOWL do not have to play in the PRO BOWL. To me that dimishes the PRO BOWL. And if the players got hurt in the PRO BOWL, the results in the SUPER BOWL would greatly be effected. 



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2010 1:04 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues



I have come to believe strongly that the TANKING OF GAMES is a major issue.


The problem started with dividing up the league into 8 divisions, with 4 additional spots for wildcards.


What that has done is allowed all sorts of teams to CLINCH EARLY  -  and these teams simply are not playing that hard.


In fact, about two weeks before these teams clinch, they lose incentives to play hard, because they have so many games as cushions to clinch if they lose a game or two  -   and the division leaders also have the wildcard spot to fall back on.


I don't even know if the "bye" week is a good enough incentive -  take a look at Minnesota  -  they had the bye almost sewn up, but now they have almost lost it.


 Overall, the play in December has become highly suspect over the past few years   -



I don't even know if the present playoff format is good for a team like the Colts  -  they have almost 6 weeks off between games that really matter  -  from the time they know they are going to clinch to mid-January - when their first playoff game is.


There is a serious problem here.




.





Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2010 10:43 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Earliest possible time to clinch wildcard:

1pm gam es: none

4.15 pm games: BAL, DEN, HOU, PIT, JAC

8.20pm game: NYJ, MIA

Latest possible time to clinch wildcard:

1pm games: none

4.15 pm games: BAL

8.20pm game: NYJ, DEN, HOU, PIT, JAC, MIA

Earliest possible time to be eliminated:

1pm games: HOU, PIT, JAC, MIA

4.15 pm games: BAL, DEN

8.20pm game: NYJ

Latest possible time to be eliminated:

1pm games: none

4.15 pm: BAL

8.20pm: NYJ, DEN, HOU, PIT, JAC, MIA



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2010 10:16 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Some additions:


1pm, HOU win:
- PIT cannot earn #5 seed
- JAC cannot earn #5 seed

1pm, PIT win:
- JAC cannot earn #5 seed

1pm, one of the following three win: HOU, JAC, PIT
- DEN needs to win to stay alive in the race for #5 seed

1pm, two of the following three win: HOU, JAC, PIT
- DEN needs to win to stay alive in the playoff race

1pm HOU + JAC loss:
- Own 4.15pm game meaningless for DEN (but maybe still of importance for CIN SoV)










Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2010 6:56 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Matt....nice job on 1pm notes.

You may find the below helpful.  It's a Week 17 Tiebreakers Viewers Guide for 1pm games i sent to others (assumes no ties and NE wins SOV tiebreaker over CIN...other than AFC aggregate notes where I address NE clinching SOV).

2009 WEEK 17 TIEBREAKERS VIEWERS GUIDE 

1PM AFC GAMES
:
  • HOU @ NE
    • NEW ENGLAND WIN:
      • NE earns the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed on Wild Card weekend
      • HOU is eliminated
      • CIN will be the #4 seed and will host the #5 seed on Wild Card weekend
    • HOUSTON WIN:
      • CIN can earn the #3 seed with a win in SNF game
      • MIA is eliminated
      • HOU needs two of following three to lose to gain playoff spot:  BAL, DEN, NYJ
  • JAC @ CLE
    • JACKSONVILLE WIN:
      • MIA is eliminated
      • JAC needs four of following five to lose to gain #6 playoff seed:  PIT, HOU, BAL, DEN, NYJ
      • JAC needs all five above teams to lose to gain #5 playoff seed
    • CLEVELAND WIN:
      • JAC is eliminated
  • PIT @ MIA
    • PITTSBURGH WIN:
      • MIA is eliminated
      • If HOU loses as well, PIT only needs either a BAL or NYJ loss to clinch #6 playoff seed and travel to #3 seed NE Wild Card weekend
      • If HOU, BAL and NYJ all lose, PIT is #5 playoff seed and travel to #4 seed CIN Wild Card weekend
    • MIAMI WIN:
      • PIT is eliminated
      • If HOU and JAC lose during 1pm games, MIA will need BAL and NYJ losses to clinch #6 playoff seed
  • Other aggregate 1pm AFC game notes:
    • If HOU and PIT win, JAC is eliminated
    • If HOU and PIT win, DEN cannot clinch playoff spot without a win
    • If HOU and PIT win, PIT needs BAL, DEN and NYJ to all lose to clinch #6 seed
    • If either JAC or MIA wins, NE clinches SOV tiebreaker over CIN
    • If NE, JAC and MIA all lose, NE can clinch SOV tiebreaker over CIN with BUF win (and obvious CIN loss later to create tie)
    • If NE wins and JAC and MIA lose, NE can clinch SOV tiebreaker over CIN with BUF win and either CAR win or TEN win
    • If HOU and JAC both lose, only the PIT-MIA winner will remain alive from the group of 4 1pm playoff hopefuls
 1PM NFC GAME
  • NYG @ MIN
    • MINNESOTA WIN:
      • MIN cannot be the #4 playoff seed
      • If PHI loses, MIN will be the #2 seed and gain 1st Round Bye
      • If PHI wins, MIN will be the #3 seed and will host #6 seed DAL on Wild Card weekend
      • ARI and DAL cannot clinch a 1st Round Bye
      • If PHI loses, both NFC Wild Card games will be repeat games from week 17 (GB @ ARI and PHI @ DAL)
    • NY GIANT WIN:
      • MIN cannot be the #2 seed
      • If ARI loses, MIN will be the #3 seed and will host #6 seed loser of the DAL-PHI game on Wild Card weekend
      • If ARI wins, MIN will be the #4 seed and will host # 5 seed GB (if PHI wins) or #5 seed PHI (if DAL wins)
      • ARI can clinch #2 seed and 1st Round Bye with win and PHI loss
      • DAL can clinch #2 seed and 1st Round Bye with win and ARI loss



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2010 5:30 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Brett...you said:
Joe -

In Denver #10, I don't think we need a Mia loss or tie.

Also, in Denver#6,8,9, A Jac tie is sufficient, just as it is in Denver#10.
Yes...we don't need the MIA loss or tie in official scenarios...in fact we removed that and added the "or tie" on JAC in DEN scenarios when we released official ones after MON night game.  I grabbed these from what was done SUN night.  Reason I added MIA loss or tie in #10 originally was just to point out that PIT didn't lose since they were playing each other.  The MIA loss or tie is assumed in #10.




Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2010 2:10 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

So much can happen this week in the AFC, that I thought I would do the 1 PM Scenarios only (with 4 PM Scenarios to come at 4:15-4:30 and night game scenarios at 7:30-7:45). 

First, if New England could clinch the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Cincinnati if any of these happen
  1. Miami wins
  2. Jacksonville wins
  3. Indianapolis and either New Orleans or Houston win

At 1 PM, there are three games (four teams) that have a bearing on the Wild card picture.  So, before the games begin, Pittsburgh, Houston, Miami, and Jacksonville all have a chance.  But based on early game results, that number will decrease.
  • Jacksonville at Cleveland
    A Jacksonville win, eliminates Miami
    A Cleveland win, eliminates Jacksonville
  • New England at Houston
    A New England win, eliminates Houston
    A Houston win, eliminates Miami
  • Pittsburgh at Miami
    A Pittsburgh win, eliminates Miami
    A Miami win, eliminates Pittsburgh
  • If Houston and Pittsburgh both win, Jacksonville is eliminated.

So, after these three games, only two (or one, if both Jacksonville and Houston both lose) of the four will still be alive and watching the two games at 4 PM that have a bearing (Kansas City at Denver and Baltimore at Oakland) on the Wild Card picture.



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2010 11:35 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

BOY,

It's  going to get dull when week 17 is OVER

Very interesting comments about clarifying Tie Breaker Procedures


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com