Blog Entry

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
 

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2010 8:52 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues


#3 seed vs. #4 seed (2006 season)



In 2006, the Colts were the #3 seed and hosted the #4 seed Patriots in the AFC Championship game. This was on their way to winning their only Super Bowl of the decade.

The Colts and Patriots were tied going into the last week of the season. The Colts had an outside chance of getting the #2 seed and 1st round bye (with tie-breaker over Bal), but the Patriots had no chance at the #2 seed (lost 2-way tie-breaker with Bal, and lost 3-way tie-breaker with Bal and NE).


So how did the Colts and Patriots fare in the final week of the season?


The Colts won 27-22 vs. 6-9 Miami. Manning played the entire game.
(The decision to play Manning could have been based soley on the chance that Baltimore would lose to 7-8 Buffalo).

The Patriots won 40-23 at 8-7 Tennesse. Tennessee would have made the playoffs if they had won.
Tom Brady had 24 of the team's 28 passing attempts - so clearly came out only when the game was in hand.

Winning 40-23 against an 8-7 team fighting for a playoff spot, with Tom Brady playing most of the game, is pretty strong evidence that the Patriots really wanted that #3 seed (and/or they wanted to get in tune for the playoffs). Although they did not get the #3 seed, the decision to play for the #3 seed was vindicated as they had to play on the road in the AFC Championship game at the home of the #3 seed.


An interesting, related, side note from 2006
:

Kansas City's only scenario to make the playoffs was:

KC win + Den loss + Cin loss + Jac loss + Ten loss .

Kansas City took care of Jacksonville themselves; Denver and Cincinnati each lost in overtime; and Tennessee lost to New England thanks to New England wanting the #3 seed.


For tie-break refrence sake...

Going into the final week of the 2006 season, the top teams in the AFC were....

San Diego, 13-2, AFC 9-2
Baltimore, 12-3, AFC 9-2
Indianapolis, 11-4, AFC 8-3
New England, 11-4, AFC 7-4

-Each team had won its division before the final week.

Indianapolis had a head-to-head win over New England.
Baltimore did not play either Indianapolis or New England.

Had Baltimore lost to Buffalo...
Baltimore's conference record would have been tied with Indianapolis at 9-3,
and thank's to the loss to Buffalo, Indy would have a 5-0 to 4-1 edge in common games.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2010 7:54 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

For the #3 seed:

If the #3 seed advances in the wild card round, #3 seed plays at #2 seed in the divisional round.
If the #3 seed advances to the conference championship game, the #3 seed can host the game vs. the #4 seed or #5 seed
The Pittsbugh Steelers certainly hope the #3 seed is worth fighting for...as they make the playoffs with a win + a New England win over Houston + a Cincinnati win over the Jets. (The other two scenarios for Pit are: NE win + Bal loss, and Cin win + Bal loss + Den loss)

Houston and the Jets hope not! The Jets certainly have an advantage playing Cincinnati on Sunday night - By then, New England could have already clinched the #3 seed.





Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 1, 2010 3:37 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues



IN my opinion, noob.johnson and Brett deserve the 1921 NFL TIEBREAKER AWARD  -  for combining their work and coming up with this excellent summary of the AFC tiebreaker picture:    &nb
sp;  It is the most simplified and easiest to understand.






WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Brett, very nice work.
I took the liberty to merge this into one:

1) 9-7 NYJ
2) 9-7 BAL
3) 9-7 DEN (if hou win)
4) 9-7 HOU
5) 9-7 PIT
6) 9-7 DEN (if hou lose)
7) 8-8 JAC
8) 8-8 DEN
9) 8-8 MIA




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: January 1, 2010 12:32 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

There's some talk that there isn't much difference between being the #3 or #4 seed.  however, there are some differences when it comes to potential matchups as the seeds advance.

For the #3 seed:

If the #3 seed advances in the wild card round, #3 seed plays at #2 seed in the divisional round.
If the #3 seed advances to the conference championship game, the #3 seed can host the game vs. the #4 seed or #5 seed.

For the #4 seed:

If the #4 seed advances in the wild card round, #4 seed plays at either the #1 seed or #2 seed in the divisional round.
If the #4 seed advances to the conference championship game,  #4 seed can host only the #6 seed.  (This happened last season in the NFC championship., where AZ, the #4 seed hosted PHIL, the #6 seed.)

The #5 seed can only host the #6 seed in a conference championship game.  The #6 seed has to play on the road through the playoffs.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 31, 2009 7:47 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

AFC #3 seed clinching scenarios (without ties) .


Cincinnati clinches #3 seed with :

1) Cin win + NE loss

2) Cin win + Cin clinches SoV over NE: (a, or b)
a) Cin win + Pit win + Cle win + Buf loss + 3 from this group: Car loss, Ten loss, Bal win, GB win, KC win
b) Cin win + Pit win + Cle win + all 5 from that group
3) NE loss + Cin clinches SoV over NE:
a) NE loss + Pit win + Cle win + Buf loss + 4 from this group: Car loss, Ten loss, Bal win, GB win, KC win

New England clinches #3 seed with :

1) NE win + Cin loss

2) NE win + NE clinches SoV over Cin: (a, b, c, or d)
a) NE win + Pit loss
b) NE win + Cle loss
c) NE win + Buf win + 1 from this group: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss
d) NE win + 3 from that group
3) Cin loss + NE clinches SoV over Cin: (a, b, c, or d)
a) Cin loss + Pit loss
b) Cin loss + Cle loss
c) Cin loss + Buf win
d) Cin loss + 2  from this group: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC los

New England #3 seed clinching scenarios (with ties) are on page 8, 4th post from the top.

Note:
- In 4(a) - 4(g), "NE win" should be "NE tie + Cin tie".
- In 5(a) - 5(g), "NE win" should be "Cin loss".



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 31, 2009 6:30 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Good Job Vito Cannoli - I think you got it perfect!

Joe -

In Denver #10, I don't think we need a Mia loss or tie.

Also, in Denver#6,8,9, A Jac tie is sufficient, just as it is in Denver#10.

Quick explanation for excluding Mia in Den#10 :
-Den has clinched SoV over Mia in a 2-way 8-8 tie, and over Mia and Bal in a 3-way 8-8 tie.
-Den#6-9 utilize the fact that Miami cannot finish ahead of Denver; each includes a Mia win (by virtue of a Pit loss) + one win from either NYJ, Jac, Hou, or Bal, respectively.



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 31, 2009 10:21 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

jmmj05:

I don't see how that it would discourage a team for going for 2 or going for a TD when an extra point or FG would tie it. They are the one's who needed whatever points was necessary to tie the game. Although:Most teams that are behind just want to tie the game then take a chance of losing the game.That the tying team gets rewarded by receiving the kickoff in OT instead of having a coin flip. The scored upon team gets penalized for allowing the score. Most fans do not like the coin flip.


Also possibility maybe the NFL should add a 2nd OT period(like 10 minutes instead of 15 minutes) I don't like ties and I think a total of 25 minutes would be suffient to score points



Since: Dec 2, 2008
Posted on: December 31, 2009 4:55 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

wayne:

Interesting idea, but I don't like it because it would discourage teams from going for 2 or going for a TD when an extra point or field goal would tie it.

jstev:

I like your undefeated coinflip idea. No team would rest their starters when they could possibly obtain that advantage.

However, I wish they would just add a 15:00 OT period without sudden death. Both teams would have a chance with the ball, and no aspects of a football game (punts, kickoffs) would be left out of an OT, unlike college football.



Since: Dec 22, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2009 6:32 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

The NFL is always trying to produce a good product for the fans, why not encourage more exciting end of season games after playoffs have been clinched by giving an extra incentive to an undefeated team.

As far as overtime goes, many fans don’t like the idea of the coin flip (i.e. “chance” or “luck”) giving any team an advantage whether or not they play good defense or not…so we just need to guarantee each team at least one offensive snap.



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2009 5:14 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

jstev:

I think that it is an interesting idea that an undefeated team gets to receive or not at any time during the playoffs without having a coin flip.
This would keep the game competitive and should satisfy the fans who want to see a record set. Although they can only share the record with the 16-0 team. The NE Patriots who were 16-0 but lost the SUPER BOWL(42) to the NY Giants 17-14. Most fans only remember the SUPER BOWL result. Some teams also think their season was a failure if they didn't win the SUPER BOWL. 

Likewise during the regular season (or playoffs) that the team that scored the tying points(either TD,FG,or sfty) gets to receive the kickoff instead of having the coin flip. This way a team that ties the game is rewarded and the team who was scored upon is penalized for not maintaining competition.
The Kick off team can onside kick if they choose. The kickoff must stay in bounds or a penalty will be accessed


See my poll after the PLayoff Race Standings(comments section)


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com