Blog Entry

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
 

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 22, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2009 4:43 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

The NFL has absolutely no integrity or credibility anymore as they've allowed this TANKING OF GAMES the last few years

I think the NFL should reward an undefeated team by giving them additional playoff advantage...

My idea?  Give the undefeated team on opportunity to choose the outcome of a 'coin toss' at any time during the playoffs. This would be especially advantageous if a game goes to overtime (I know the Colts could have benefited from this last year…)




Since: Dec 6, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2009 2:54 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

I'm rooting for 8 teams with 8-8 records.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2009 1:02 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Here are some breakdowns of scenarios by seed including ties (unofficial - self generated).  I've only included wc race since the whole NE/CIN SOV has been thoroughly covered in other posts.  It's interesting that Denver is the only team that can lose and still make the playoffs.

Generally, clinching #6 involves all but one of the #5 clinching results to happen.
NYJ
Can clinch #5 with:
1.  Win
2.  Tie, BAL tie or loss, DEN tie or loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss

Can clinch #6 with:
1.  Tie, BAL tie or loss, DEN tie or loss, and HOU tie or loss
2.  Tie, BAL tie or loss, DEN tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss
3.  Tie, BAL tie or loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss
4.  Tie, DEN tie or loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss

BAL
Can clinch #5 with:
1.  Win and NYJ tie or loss
2.  Tie, NYJ loss, DEN tie or loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss

Can clinch #6 with:
1.  Win
2.  Tie, NYJ loss, DEN tie or loss, and HOU tie or loss
3.  Tie, NYJ loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss
4.  Tie, NYJ loss, DEN tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss
5.  Tie, DEN tie or loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss

DEN
Can clinch #5 with:
1.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, BAL tie or loss, and HOU win
2.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, BAL tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss
3.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, HOU tie, and PIT tie
4.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT loss
5.  NYJ loss, BAL loss, HOU loss, PIT loss, and JAX tie or loss

Can clinch #6 with:
1.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, and BAL tie or loss
2.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss
3.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, and HOU win
4.  Win, BAL tie or loss, and PIT tie or loss
5.  Win, BAL tie or loss, and HOU win
6.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, and HOU tie or loss
7.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, and PIT loss
8.  Tie, NYJ loss, HOU tie, and PIT tie
9.  Tie, NYJ loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT loss
10.  Tie, BAL loss, HOU tie, and PIT tie
11.  Tie, BAL loss, HOU tie or loss, and PIT loss
12.  NYJ loss, BAL loss, PIT loss, and HOU loss
13.  NYJ loss, BAL loss, HOU loss, and JAX tie or loss
14.  NYJ loss, BAL loss, PIT loss, and JAX tie or loss
15.  NYJ loss, HOU loss, PIT loss, and JAX tie or loss
16.  BAL loss, HOU loss, PIT loss, and JAX tie or loss

HOU
Can clinch #5 with:
1.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, BAL tie or loss, and DEN tie or loss
2.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, DEN loss, and PIT tie or loss

Can clinch #6 with:
1.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, and BAL tie or loss
2.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, and DEN tie or loss
3.  Win, BAL tie or loss, and DEN tie or loss
4.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss and DEN loss
5.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, and PIT tie or loss
6.  Tie, NYJ loss, DEN loss, and PIT tie or loss
7.  Tie, BAL loss, DEN loss, and PIT tie or loss

PIT
Can clinch #5 with:
1.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, BAL tie or loss, and HOU tie or loss
2.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, DEN tie or loss, and HOU loss

Can clinch #6 with:
1.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, and HOU tie or loss
2.  Win, BAL tie or loss, and HOU tie or loss
3.  Win, NYJ tie or loss, BAL tie or loss, and DEN tie or loss
4.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, and DEN loss
5.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, and HOU loss
6.  Tie, NYJ loss, BAL loss, DEN tie, and HOU win
7.  Tie, NYJ loss, DEN tie or loss, and HOU loss
8.  Tie, BAL loss, DEN tie or loss, and HOU loss

MIA
Can clinch #6 with:
1.  Win, NYJ loss, BAL loss, HOU loss, and JAX tie or loss

JAX
Can clinch #5 with:
1.  Win, NYJ loss, BAL loss, DEN loss, HOU loss, and PIT loss

Can clinch #6 with:
1.  Win, NYJ loss, BAL loss, DEN loss, and HOU loss
2.  Win, NYJ loss, BAL loss, DEN loss, and PIT loss
3.  Win, NYJ loss, BAL loss, HOU loss, and PIT loss
4.  Win, NYJ loss, DEN loss, HOU loss, and PIT loss
5.  Win, BAL loss, DEN loss, HOU loss, and PIT loss





Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2009 12:55 pm
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Can someone confirm that Denver is the only AFC team that can qualify for a wildcard position with a Loss?

As worthless as it may be, I will confirm that.  I think the kicker is that Pittsburgh is playing Miami.  You see, if the Jets lose, they will either lose to Miami based on H2H sweep and be left out of any tiebreakers for the conference record, and if Pittsburgh wins, they will have a better record than a Jets team that lost.  Similiarly, Baltimore will either lose to Pittsburgh or Miami if they lose.

For any team to lose and still be part of a tiebreaker, they would have to be 8-8.  And for tiebreakers of teams that are 8-8, it will all come down to Conference Record and then SoV.  If everyone who can finish 8-8 does, Jacksonville will be first with the best Conference Record and Denver will be second based on SoV.  Miami would be third, also because of SoV.  And since we know that Denver is at least going to be 8-8 and if Miami is not 8-8 then Pittsburgh will be 9-7 (or even 8-7-1) and already clinched, we know that noone beyond those three can get in with an 8-8 record.  So, the only team who can get through with a loss is Denver.  And because Denver loses many tiebreakers at 9-7 (because H2H losses against Pittsburgh and Baltimore and a worse Common Opponents than the NY Jets), there game matters the least.

I hope that clears it up.



Since: Dec 30, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2009 10:48 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Can someone confirm that Denver is the only AFC team that can qualify for a wildcard position with a Loss??  It appears that all of the other scenerios require a team to win to make the playoffs.





Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2009 10:19 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Agn,
Thank you for the compliment. Nice work with the 10-5-1 scenario!

I'm gonna try to take this one step further: by considering that any game could end tied...
Sounds exciting, but...boy am I sorry I tried this... You will see what I mean!

It starts out simple, but then the inclusion of ties seems to add a ton of new scnearios.

Before we had (for Cincinnati)...
At 11-5 each: Cincinnati needs all but 2 (to finish ahead in SoV by 1 win).
At 10-5 each: Cincinnati needs all but 1 (to finish ahead in SoV by 1 win).

Considering the possibility of ties, for Cincinnati, it's really...
At 11-5 each: Cincinnati needs all but 2.5 (to finish ahead in SoV by 0.5 wins).
At 10-5 each: Cincinnati needs all but 1.5 (to finish ahead in SoV by 0.5 wins).

For New England, what we had before doesn't change...
At 11-5 each: New England needs 3 (to finish tied in SoV). - magic number = 3.
At 10-5 each: New England needs 2 (to finish tied in SoV). - magic number = 2.
Scenarios 1, 2, and 5 (orig. 1, 2, and 3) stay the same, except for the added SoV cases:
- The added cases are the ones that include one or more of: Pit tie, Cle tie, and Buf tie.

At 10-5-1 each
:
New England needs 2.5 (to finish tied in SoV). - magic number = 2.5
Including the possibility of ties from within the group, only 2.5 wins/losses are needed.
(Agn, yours is perfect. I'm just choosing to be more complicated).

Scenario (3) is new, but doesn't need explanation.

New England clinches #3 seed with :

1) NE win + Cin loss or tie


2) NE win + NE clinches SoV over Cin (a, b, c, d, e, f, g, or h) - magic number = 3
Number key: Cle or Pit loss = 3, Cle or Pit tie = 1.5, Buf win = 2, Buf tie = 1,
Otherwise: win or loss = 1, tie = 0.5 
a) NE win + 3 from this group: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss
b) NE win + Buf tie + 2 from that group
c) NE win + Buf win + 1 from that group
d) NE win + Pit or Cle tie + 1.5 from that group
e) NE win + Pit or Cle tie + Buf tie + 0.5 from that group
f) NE win + Pit or Cle tie + Buf win
g) NE win + Pit or Cle loss
h) NE win + Pit tie + Cle tie

3) NE tie + Cin loss


4) NE tie + Cin tie + NE clinches SoV over Cin (a, b, c, d, e, f, or g) - magic no. = 2.5
Number key: Cle or Pit loss = 3, Cle or Pit tie = 1.5, Buf win = 2, Buf tie = 1,
Otherwise: win or loss = 1, tie = 0.5
a) NE win + 2.5 from this group: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss
b) NE win + Buf tie + 1.5 from that group
c) NE win + Buf win + 0.5 from that group
d) NE win + Pit or Cle tie + 1 from that group
e) NE win + Pit or Cle tie + Buf win or tie
f) NE win + Pit or Cle loss
g) NE win + Pit tie + Cle tie

5) Cin loss + NE clinches SoV over Cin (a, b, c, d, e, f, or g) - magic number = 2
Number key: Cle or Pit loss = 3, Cle or Pit tie = 1.5, Buf win = 2, Buf tie = 1,
Otherwise: win or loss = 1, tie = 0.5
a) NE win + 2 from this group: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss
b) NE win + Buf tie + 1 from that group
c) NE win + Buf win
d) NE win + Pit or Cle tie + 0.5 from that group
e) NE win + Pit or Cle tie + Buf win or tie
f) NE win + Pit or Cle loss
g) NE win + Pit tie + Cle tie



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2009 10:18 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Dick Duff:

Sorry, but once a team has achieved it's regular season goals, they have every right to rest their players. The team has no obligations to play their stars against a team who needs a result favorite to them. For those teams who need that favorite game result, I say TOUGH.
They should have won more games in the previous weeks. 

Also this year the NFL is playing the PRO BOWL before the SUPER BOWL. I heard that the stars playing in the SUPER BOWL do NOT have to play in the PRO BOWL. 

So a team might go 16-0. They could only share a 16-0 record with the NE Patriots who in 2007 lost the SUPER BOWL(42) to the NY Giants  17-14. Most fans will only remember the SUPER BOWL result not the 16-0 record.


Dick Duff
Since: Mar 28, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2009 7:03 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 30, 2009 5:57 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

New England clinches #3 seed with :

1) NE win + Cin loss

2) NE win + NE clinches SoV over Cin (a, b, c, or d)
a) NE win + Pit loss
b) NE win + Cle loss
c) NE win + Buf win + 1 of these 5: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss
d) NE win + 3 of these 5: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss

3) Cin loss + NE clinches SoV over Cin (a, b, c, or d)
a) Cin loss + Pit loss
b) Cin loss + Cle loss
c) Cin loss + Buf win
d) Cin loss + 2 of these 5: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss
Brett's format seems clearer, and is more in line with how scenarios are posted. Good job.

Once point. a 10-5-1 tie between  NE CIN, basically comes down to the same as the 11-5 scenario, since the NYJ tie will had .5 wins to NE total (the beat NYJ earlier) and the HOUS tie wil have no affect on CIN's 10 win SoV -- thus requiring CIN to gain 5 wins

4) NE tie + CIN tie + NE clinches SoV over Cin (a, b, c, or d)

a) NE tie + CIN tie + Pit loss
b) NE tie + CIN tie + Cle loss
c) NE tie + CIN tie + Buf win + 1 of these 5: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss
d) NE tie + CIN tie + 3 of these 5: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss

 




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2009 5:14 am
 

WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

Joe, I got the same thing for the NE-Cin Strength of Victory. I also like your way of explaining it.

One additional approach could be to put this in terms of New England clinching the #3 Seed.

New England clinches #3 seed with :

1) NE win + Cin loss

2) NE win + NE clinches SoV over Cin (a, b, c, or d)
a) NE win + Pit loss
b) NE win + Cle loss
c) NE win + Buf win + 1 of these 5: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss
d) NE win + 3 of these 5: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss

3) Cin loss + NE clinches SoV over Cin (a, b, c, or d)
a) Cin loss + Pit loss
b) Cin loss + Cle loss
c) Cin loss + Buf win
d) Cin loss + 2 of these 5: Car win, Ten win, Bal loss, GB loss, KC loss


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