Blog Entry

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

Posted on: December 8, 2010 10:21 am
 

Here is where we ended up with Week 14 Scenarios.   Honestly, the PITT scenarios were a bit challenging with multiple games being played this week that involve teams in the PITT mix (NYJ-MIA, OAK-JAC, SD-KC).

I will walk through my explanation of the PITT scenarios in the comments below.

Also, the notes added below NE and PITT scenarios are there as these teams may lock up strength of victory advantage over JAC (and potentially SD) this weekend.  That would kill the need for IND or JAC loss/tie in scenarios for those teams.

WEEK 14 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    None
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit.
 
 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a playoff spot:
   1) ATL win + NYG loss + PHI loss
   2) ATL win + NYG loss + GB loss
   3) ATL win + PHI loss + GB loss
   4) ATL tie + NYG loss + PHI loss + GB loss + TB loss or tie
  There are other scenarios in which Atlanta can clinch a playoff spot if any of
 the games involving NYG, PHI or GB ends in a tie.

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    None
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver.

 NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches a playof spot:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   3) MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie
  There are other scenarios in which New England may clinch a playoff spot if
 they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.
     
 NEW YORK Jets
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win + SD loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   2) NYJ win + SD loss or tie + IND loss or tie 
   3) NYJ tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss + IND loss

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + JAC loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
   2) PIT win + IND loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) PIT win + IND loss or tie + NE win or tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   4) PIT win + IND loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   5) PIT tie + MIA loss or tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss or tie + IND loss
  There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

Comments

Since: Oct 3, 2006
Posted on: December 13, 2010 6:56 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

database,

I have mixed thoughts here and have to think about this one a bit ...

In the meantime I wanted to make a general comment that applies here and may apply to some other topics in play right now too.  The word around the campfire is that an 18 game regular season is virtually a done deal, (and is certainly at least a real possibility in the near future) so I dont think a question should be tabled even if it is an impossible case at present, because it may not be impossible tommorow.  (this one is possible though,  One way:  A and D have a 1st place schedule, B and C have a 2nd place schedule.  A's divison is fully paired with C's division, so then by default B and D divisions are also paired.) 



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 12, 2010 8:30 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

AGN,  I posted this over in the Tiebreaker Discussion blog 
___________________________________

____________

To the gang,

Thinking about the H2H case a bit more.  Going forward how should we handle the following case.  AGN got me thinking deeper about the H2H scenarios.

Suppose Teams A,B,C,D are all tied.  And the following H2H matchups occur:
A over C,
A over D,
B over C,
B over D
A and B never play each other
C and D never play each other.  

So each team has played each other the same number of games.  Combining the H2H records of A and B yields 4-0.  Combining the H2H records of C and D yields 0-4.  So as a group A and B have swept C and D.  It's logically clear to me that A and B are both better H2H than C and D so should we be eliminating C and D even though each tied team hasn't played each tied team.  The only thing I haven't considered is whether or not an actual NFL schedule would ever permit this scenario from occurring from purely a scheduling standpoint.  For now, let's assume that it is possible.  

Any opinions on how this case should be treated.  I can see arguments both ways but I'd like to hear from y'all.  Thanks!

-Cheers



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 12, 2010 3:51 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

AGN, great insights.  At the very least, I think we as a group have converged on a very concise and clear wording for the note.  Wouldn't you say Joe?  Also I agree that other rule needs work for now Brett's version works, although it would be nice to simplify it some more.

-Cheers



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2010 1:42 am
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

The new Head-to-Head step would read:
Best combined Head-to-Head record.  (Applicable only if each tied club has played each other tied club).

database,

This of couse DOES change the current H2H rules.
Currently -- correctly -- a 3-way tie can be broken without all teams having inter-played. All that is required is that a team has beaten (o lost to) both opponents. There is no requirement that the other two opponents played each other.




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2010 1:36 am
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

On the "new note" wording
(Note: If less clubs remain tied after others are eliminated at any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1).

I would put to the group that "less", "fewer" and any word in that place is redundant. "Elimination" by definition will leave fewer teams.

To wit: (Note: If clubs remain tied after others are eliminated at any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1).
You can say "any clubs" if you wish.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2010 1:31 am
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

Joe,

You wondered why anyone would not assume that reverting to step 1 when 1 team was eliminated ffrom a 4-way tie, was implicit in the procedure.

Well, old-timers recall that this wording has been in the procedure long before the WC tie-break was limited to 4 teams. When 4-,5-,6-team ties were possible (the division tie-breaker was not applied in those days), the reverting to step 1 was clearly done to ensure that if 2 teams were left, that the all-important H2H result would carry more weight. To me, it was there as a catch to make sure that when it came back to 2 teams (not more) that their H2H result would take precedence.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 11, 2010 11:38 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

The new note would read:
(Note: If less clubs remain tied after others are eliminated at any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1).



Now to display just how nerdy this forum can be with the correct mix of people, I submit to  that he needs to change the word "less" to "fewer."  As we all can remember from grammar, less refers to something that isn't countable, when this is referring to something that is definitionally countable.  Having said that, I like the simple note. 



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 11, 2010 6:05 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

Hello Joe,

And also for the gang.  I got an email today from the NFL confirming what Joe has already confirmed here.  And indeed the leagues intention is to revert back to step 1 when 4 teams is reduced to 3 teams.  Lets hope that a club isn't forced out of the playoffs this year prior to any rule official update to the literature based on this nuance :)


Joe I've also added some comments to Brett's rework of the rules.  I agree that his first draft is actually more wordy than is necessary.  I am working on a version that has only one procedure to be used for all tiebreakers.  In my combined single procedure the two biggest changes are in H2H and the note referring to how to proceed when teams are eliminated.  Here they are but please refer to the blog for more rational.  I'll post the whole procedure when it's complete.  The goal being to have as few changes to the current procedure as possible while cleaning up all ambiguity.  

The new Head-to-Head step would read:
Best combined Head-to-Head record.  (Applicable only if each tied club has played each other tied club).

The new note would read:
(Note: If less clubs remain tied after others are eliminated at any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1).


-Cheers



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 11, 2010 5:26 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

It might be a bit early for Week 15 scenarios, but I have JAX winning the South with wins over OAK and IND, and one more HOU loss either this week or the next.  This would give JAX a 9-7 record at worst with a H2H sweep over IND, and both HOU and TEN would have at least 8 losses.

Also, HOU can still win the division at 9-7, IF IND loses one more game besides the JAX one next week (HOU would beat JAX on common opponents) OR JAX loses one of their final two games after beating OAK and IND (HOU would beat IND on conference record).



Since: Oct 27, 2008
Posted on: December 11, 2010 11:35 am
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

Hi steelers3944:

Yes, of course a win would do the trick as well.  However, if you take a look at #4, it includes IND/MIA/OAK - three teams that are all in #5.  It's when you reduce the PIT record by a half game, that the IND game must be a loss (not a tie), and SD is thrown into the mix as well.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com