Blog Entry

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

Posted on: December 12, 2010 10:59 am
 

After INDY's win over TENN on Thursday night, here are the updated AFC Clinching Scenarios below.  I've also added Week 14 Elimination Scenarios so you can folllow along with the games this week and see who's still alive for playoff contention.

[Note:  With the NYG @ MIN game being postponed to Monday night at the earliest, some of the results below will play out later than expected]

WEEK 14 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

NFC

CLINCHED:    None
ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit.
 
ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a playoff spot:
   1) ATL win + NYG loss + PHI loss
   2) ATL win + NYG loss + GB loss
   3) ATL win + PHI loss + GB loss
   4) ATL tie + NYG loss + PHI loss + GB loss + TB loss or tie
There are other scenarios in which Atlanta can clinch a playoff spot if any of
the games involving NYG, PHI or GB ends in a tie.

AFC

CLINCHED:    None
ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver.

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
New England clinches a playof spot:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
There are other scenarios in which New England may clinch a playoff spot if
they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.
     
NEW YORK Jets
NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win + SD loss or tie + JAC loss or tie 

PITTSBURGH Steelers
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + JAC loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.


WEEK 14 ELIMINATION SCENARIOS

AFC
MIAMI Dolphins
Miami is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) MIA loss + BAL win
 
CLEVELAND Browns
Cleveland is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) CLE loss + BAL win or tie
2) CLE tie + BAL win
 
NFC
DALLAS Cowboys
Dallas is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) DAL loss or tie
2) GB win or tie
 
WASHINGTON Redskins
Washington is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) WAS loss + GB win or tie
2) WAS loss + PHI win or tie
3) WAS tie + GB win
4) WAS tie + PHI win
 
MINNESOTA Vikings
Minnesota is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) MIN loss
2) MIN tie + GB win or tie
3) MIN tie + PHI win
4) GB win + NO win or tie
 
ARIZONA Cardinals
Arizona is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) ARI loss or tie
2) SEA win or tie
3) STL win or tie
 
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
San Francisco is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) SF loss

Comments

Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 15, 2010 12:41 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

ecaiv78:

You are correct, NYG cannot get the 4 seed.  That was an oversight of mine.  Thank you for detecting the error.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2010 9:31 am
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

I'll post a more rigorous breakdown of the NYG/TB SoV scenario, but only after Joe has posted a new blog entries for week 15. (He said he would split NFC and AFC).

I would suggest that other wait as well,  so let's not waste any more spce on this dead entry....
We're into Week 16 now.....



Since: Dec 5, 2010
Posted on: December 15, 2010 9:31 am
 

Week 15 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

A correction for last week's elimination scenario and for week 15 as well:  It looks like even with a loss this week, SF has potential to go 7-9 on the season.  If St. Loius ties Seattle this week and both teams lose their final two games, they will both be 6-9-1 giving SF the Division title



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2010 9:22 am
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

JJ,

I have confirmed that in NYG clinching scenario:

NYG win, CHI loss, GB loss, and TB loss, the worst scenario for NYG has them tied with TB on SoV.
This would happen with them both 10-6 and NYG in 2nd place and TB in third (ie. NO and PHI beat them out for higher divisional position) 
Thus the only thing that needs to happen this week for NYG to clinch SoV is ONE of the following:

SD beats/ties SF (Thurs)
BAL beats/ties NO
JAX beats/ties IND
HOUS beats/ties TENN
DALL beats/ties WASH
KC beats/ties STL
SEA beats/ties ARI

That is, one of the teams TB beat has to lose or tie (other than to another team it also beat) OR one of the teams NYG beat has to win (other than against a team it also beat).

Others can double check.... 



Since: Nov 27, 2007
Posted on: December 15, 2010 9:00 am
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

Lensova,In your list of possible seeds for teams you have the Giants as being able to get the 4 seed.  How is that possible?  The only way for Seattle or St. Louis (both 6-7) to catch them is to win out and have the Giants (9-4) lose out.  If the Giants lose out, they would not be division champs (due to playing Philadelphia giving them 10 wins and out of reach for the West teams) and the best they could do is the 5 seed.  Even with a Philly tie, 9-6-1 is better than anything the West teams could do.  Am I missing something simple, or should the 4 not be in there?



Since: Dec 15, 2009
Posted on: December 15, 2010 8:24 am
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

interesting that the giants can clinch a playoff spot.  can anybody post exactly what it would take for them to clinch the SOV over the bucs? 



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2010 1:42 am
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

Here is what we have after run through today.  Sleeping on these before submitting to League and obviously want to figure out how to position the SOV stuff...especially in the AFC.

I'll post this in a new blog with Elimination Scenarios tomorrow.

Fire away with any questions.

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE (Not Official)

 ATLANTA FALCONS
  Atlanta clinches a playoff spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie
   4) GB loss or tie
 
 CHICAGO BEARS
  Chicago clinches NFC North division:
   1) CHI win + GB loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches a playoff spot:
   1) NO win + TB loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   2) NO win + TB loss or tie + CHI loss or tie
   3) NO win + TB loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   4) NO tie + TB loss + GB loss
   5) NO tie + TB loss + NYG loss + CHI loss

 NEW YORK GIANTS
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + CHI loss + GB loss + TB loss + NYG clinch strength of victory tiebreaker over Tampa Bay
 (I currently have NYG no worse than tied with TB in SOV at end of year)

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches AFC East division and a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + NYJ loss or tie
   2) NE tie + NYJ loss

 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss + PIT clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over BAL
 (I currently have PIT no worse than tied with BAL in SOV at end of year)
  Pittsburgh clinches a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss + PIT clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over BAL and JAC
   2) PIT win + BAL loss + PIT clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over BAL + JAC loss or tie
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win or tie
   2) IND loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   3) IND loss or tie + KC loss
  There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
  Jacksonville clinches AFC South division:
   1) JAC win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win + MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie + KC loss
   2) NYJ win + MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   3) NYJ tie + MIA loss + IND loss or tie + SD loss
  There are other scenarios in which New York may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + IND loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   2) BAL win + IND loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + KC loss
   3) BAL tie + MIA loss or tie + SD loss + IND loss
  There are other scenarios in which Baltimore may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2010 1:29 am
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

AFC North:

Good job on the explanation.  You have the result right....just need to add in tie possibilities to the five games (as a tie in any one would also give PIT SOV edge).

However, if your goals include brevity and simplicity, you should consider just using WINS instead of Win-loss records.  Since all teams play the same number of games (16) and the teams have the same number of defeated opponents (otherwise they wouldn't be tied), wins should be sufficient.

For example, instead of saying a differential of -5 and -23....i would just say 24 wins (PIT) vs. 17 wins (BAL).  [I actually had it at 24-14 before adding MUST WINS based on this scenario for CAR over PIT wk 16 and CLE over PIT wk 17 to make it PIT leading 24 wins to 16 wins.  I then looked at other potential wins for BAL and see 7 wins plus two half wins when DEN plays HOU wk 16 for a total of 8 additional wins to make it 24 wins to 24 wins.  Now...need to see if any of PIT's defeated opponents (CIN, ATL, TEN, OAK) play each other to give PIT a half win OR if the scenario makes a MUST WIN for any of these teams.  It does NOT...so we remain tied at 24 in the best case scenario for BAL.

So...If any game this week does not go BAL's way, PIT clinches SOV....thus the listing of five games and the needed results.

I know i didn't do the best job of explaining this, but I have found it much easier and quicker over the years.

 




Since: Dec 6, 2010
Posted on: December 14, 2010 11:00 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

If nothing in that last post was mistaken (and that's a big if), I think PIT could also clinch a first-round bye in Week 15 if they clinch the AFC North and JAX loses to IND.



Since: Dec 6, 2010
Posted on: December 14, 2010 10:44 pm
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

Steel_7Ben, I think that post was correct-- any one of those five results would clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker for PIT over BAL if PIT wins, BAL loses, and both finish 11-5.

Let's see if it's possible to explain briefly:

In this scenario, each team will end up with 11 wins:

PIT's wins:
BAL, CLE, CIN, CIN
NYJ, MIA, BUF
ATL, TB
TEN
OAK

BAL's wins:
PIT, CLE, CLE, CIN
NYJ, MIA, BUF
TB, CAR
HOU
DEN

We can cross out the opponents that both teams played-- any changes in their records will affect both teams the same.

PIT's wins:
CIN (2-11)
ATL (11-2)
TEN (5-8)
OAK (6-7)

BAL's wins:
CLE (5-8)
CAR (1-12)
HOU (5-8)
DEN (3-10)

So, only four opponents remain for each team.  I've written their current W-L records next to each one, but we know more than that.  We can fill in any games they play against BAL or PIT, since we are assuming a certain set of results for those games:

PIT's wins:
CIN (2-12)  loss to BAL
ATL (11-2)
TEN (5-8)
OAK (6-7)

BAL's wins:
CLE (6-9)  win over PIT, loss to BAL
CAR (2-12)  win over PIT
HOU (5-8)
DEN (3-10)

Also, HOU plays DEN in Week 16, which means that we can add (1-1) to BAL's total no matter what the game's outcome is.

PIT's total:
24-29 (differential of -5)

BAL's total:
17-40 (differential of -23)

Comparing PIT's -5 with BAL's -23, we get the result that PIT has an 18-win advantage on BAL in strength of victory.

Now, the question is how many SOV wins BAL can gain in the remaining 3 weeks of the season.  To figure this out, we use the list above again:

CIN (2-12)  +/- 2
ATL (11-2)  +/- 3
TEN (5-8)  +/- 3
OAK (6-7)  +/- 3
CLE (6-9)  +/- 1
CAR (2-12)  +/- 2
HOU (5-8)  +/- 2 (subtracted 1 because the HOU-DEN outcome doesn't matter)
DEN  (3-10) +/- 2 (subtracted 1 because the HOU-DEN outcome doesn't matter)

total:  +/- 18

So, PIT has an 18-win advantage in SOV on BAL, and the maximum amount it can change is... by 18 wins.  If the difference goes all the way down to zero, then it will go to the next tiebreaker, strength of schedule, which PIT has definitely not clinched yet (the schedules of division opponents only differ in two out of 16 games, and the records of those opponents are similar in PIT/BAL's case).

This means that PIT's advantage in strength of victory only needs to improve by 1 win in order for them to clinch the tiebreaker over BAL.  That can happen if a team on PIT's list wins or if a team on BAL's list loses (or both, of course).

There are five games in Week 15 in which this can happen:
-- CIN defeats CLE
-- ATL defeats SEA
-- ARI defeats CAR
-- TEN defeats HOU
-- OAK defeats DEN

Any one of those, plus a PIT win and a BAL loss, and PIT clinches the AFC North.


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