Blog Entry

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

Posted on: December 15, 2010 10:36 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

  AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland.

 NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches AFC East division and a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + NYJ loss or tie
   2) NE tie + NYJ loss

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss + PIT clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over BAL
  Pittsburgh clinches a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss + PIT clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over
       BAL and JAC
   2) PIT win + BAL loss + JAC loss or tie + PIT clinches strength of victory
        tiebreaker over BAL
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win or tie
   2) IND loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   3) IND loss or tie + KC loss
  There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches AFC South division:
   1) JAC win

 NEW YORK Jets
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win + MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie + KC loss
   2) NYJ win + MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   3) NYJ tie + MIA loss + IND loss or tie + SD loss
  There are other scenarios in which New York may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

 BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + IND loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   2) BAL win + IND loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + KC loss
   3) BAL tie + MIA loss or tie + SD loss + IND loss
  There are other scenarios in which Baltimore may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

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NOTE: The WORST CASE SCENARIO for PIT in the strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker with BAL referenced above is a TIE.  That means, to clinch SOV this week over BAL, PIT only needs ONE of the following to occur:
- CIN win/tie over CLE
- ATL win/tie over SEA
- TEN win/tie over HOU
- OAK win/tie over DEN
- ARI win/tie over CAR

Will post PIT/JAC SOV scenario in comments below.

Comments

Since: Dec 22, 2009
Posted on: December 19, 2010 8:06 pm
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

I forgot to count the Denver-Houston game properly causing my results to be 1 possible win off.  Thanks for the assistance.
However, now that Atlanta and Oakland have both won, Pittsburgh has clinched SoV over the Chargers and a playoff spot - Correct?



Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2010 6:20 pm
 

PIT WC scenarios

@JoeNFL:  Yes; SD currently can beat PIT by at best one SoV point in either an SD/JAX/PIT (NYJ claims WC#1) or in NYJ/SD/PIT (both wc's up for grabs.)  In the case of SD/PIT SoV tie, either NYJ is in or JAX is out, so we revert to 2-team vs. SD, in which PIT takes the wc.

@OneSickPuppy:  See, eg, http://tinyurl.com/29gxhsv -- an SD/JAX/PIT scenario where SD holds a one point SoV over PIT.








Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 6:16 pm
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

OneSickPuppy, I actually come up one game different than you on SOV of PIT vs SD.  By my count, SD can still finish one game better than PIT in SOV, assuming a tie at 10-6 involving PIT, SD, and JAX.  It is certainly possible that I made a mistake somewhere, but I can't find it.  For the 10 teams that SD will have beaten, I have a maximum of 68 victories for the season, counting potential wins in week 16 and 17, plus DEN must beak OAK today.  I have PIT with a minimum of 67 victories, counting all games in week 16+17 where they are guaranteed at least one win. (BAL-CIN, TEN-OAK, CLE-BAL, CLE>PIT)  This is probably becoming moot as I type it, since ATL just took a 17 point lead on SEA, and the ATL win would clinch the tie with SD, (if my numbers are correct), and like OneSickPuppy said, If SD+PIT tie in SOV, JAC drops out and PIT beats SD on common games.  Again, I could be missing one game for one team or the other, so it's possible that he is right and PIT is already in.  The only way I can see for PIT not to be in is for NYJ, SEA, and DEN to all win the games currently going on, and for my math to be correct while OneSickPuppy's is off.



Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2010 6:13 pm
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

@JoeNFL:  Yes, it's based on the 3-way SD/PIT/JAX (NYJ takes WC#1) or alternatively on the NYJ/SD/PIT, in which both WCs are available.
In both cases, PIT needs only out-SoV SD; they've already clinched over JAX, and in the NYJ scenario, 2 WCs are there.

@OneSickPuppy:  PIT has not clinched yet due to SD still possibly holding 1 more SoV point in the 3-way with JAX and PIT (or NYJ and PIT).  See, eg, http://tinyurl.com/29gxhsv (ESPN Playoff Machine)

-David



Since: Dec 22, 2009
Posted on: December 19, 2010 5:16 pm
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

I have Pittsburgh clinching a playoff spot already (& please let me know if there is a mistake anywhere).

With a 3-way tie @10-6, I show Pittsburgh clinching SoV over Jacksonville & Pittsburgh clinching, at worst, a tie with San Diego.  Even if Pittsburgh & San Diego finish tied with SoV, Jacksonville will drop out of the tie-break at this step & Pittsburgh-San Diego will go back to the top.  Pittsburgh would win the 2-team tie-break with San Diego based on Common Game Records.

Even if the Jets are included, Pittsburgh will win the tie-break over San Diego & Jacksonville. 



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2010 4:52 pm
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

DavidMac:

Is your PIT in with a loss scenario based on SOV over JAC and SD?  Assume it is....just wanted to make sure you were looking at that angle.



Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2010 4:42 pm
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

One step further with PIT - they can also clinch a WC berth with an OAK win/tie or an ATL win based on SoV tiebreakers.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 4:31 pm
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

Here's what we know after the earlier games results today in the AFC:

PIT can clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie
NYJ and BAL can't clinch today due to IND and KC wins
NE can still clinch AFC East & 1st round bye w/win and NYJ loss

HOU and MIA are eliminated.

KC can clinch the AFC West w/ win and a SD loss in week 16






Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 10:38 am
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

jeff,

I'm very happy your results echo mine.  I did indeed to all that work just because you brought it up, but I don't like having incomplete results.  I should have done that work earlier, but it took until last night for me to get the fact that IND/MIA SoV really does matter this week drilled into my thick skull.  I appreciate your work because it prodded me to do mine, and I feel much happier with my results.

Everyone,

I wanted to touch on something jeff mentioned that I noticed as well, just because I hadn't thought of it before doing my work last night, and I found it interesting.  SoS tiebreakers are impacted very little on week 17.  The reason for this is that week 17 is now all divisional games.  This means that for the AFC and NFC divisions that a team is matched up against, 4 wins are guaranteed.  Between the two divisional opponents that a team is not playing in week 17, 2 wins are guaranteed.  The only games that are up in the air are the two conference opponents that were chosen due to the previous year's finish and the divisional opponent that the team is playing in week 17.

It does get a little more complicated than that, however, once common opponents are considered.   If team A and team B didn't play each other, but are tied, and the tie goes to SoS, the 4 common opponents will not impact the SoS.  Thus, the divisional-record conference opponents (which are necessarily the common opponents) are dropped from consideration.  However, in doing so, one conference opponent from the division-matched division will drop out from impact, leaving their week 17 opponent with the ability for impact.  In addition, one divisional opponent will drop out from impact as well.  If this divisional opponent is the one the team is playing against in week 17, then only 2 games can improve the team A's SoS differential over team B.  If the divisional opponent is not the one the team is playing against in week 17, then 4 games can improve team A's SoS differential over team B.  However, if we are considering SoS tiebreakers, we have most likely determined the result of team A's week 17 game and team B's week 17 game.  Thus, the games played against those opponents will not be useable as SoS improvements.  Therefore, if team A and team B didn't play each other, there will be a MAXIMUM of two games for each team that they can use to improve their SoS differential and a MINIMUM of 1 game.

While there are some other considerations if team A and team B did play each other, the odds of them going to SoS is incredibly minute, and not worth spending more text discussing (since either the teams tied, or a third team had the exact same SoV as both team A and team B).

I hope that muddled text above makes sense.  It makes a lot of sense when one is actually working on determining SoS tiebreakers, but it may be much easier seen than described.



Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 3:32 am
 

Week 15 AFC Clinching Scenarios

Okay, one more post from me, I went through the SOS in case of a tie in SOV for MIA/IND, and I did come up with the same results you did, Lensova.  What I think is quite remarkable about this is that despite the incredibly complex work it took to arrive at the above scenarios, it is quite possible that everything in the following line could take place this week:

-IND  Loss + BAL win/tie + MIA win + NYG loss + DEN loss + KC loss + WAS loss +HOU loss + CLE win 


The Colts are favored over Jacksonville, despite having a worse record, and NO/BAL, NYG/PHI, and KC/STL could all be considered tossups.  MIA should beat BUF, DAL should beat WASH, CLE should beat  CIN.  There would only be one real upset required to make all this stuff actually result in the Colts to be eliminated this week: either MIN over CHI, DET over TB, or TEN over HOU, and none of those teams are huge underdogs.


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