Blog Entry

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Posted on: December 19, 2010 5:14 pm
 

Here is what has happened after early games this Sunday:

- Atlanta clinched playoff spot due to NYG loss (how did the Giants lose that game?)
- Arizona, Houston and Miami are now ELIMINATED from playoff contention
- PIT can no longer clinch division or 1st round bye
- Largely due to IND win over JAC:
    - JAC can no longer clinch division
    - NYJ can no longer clinch playoff spot
    - BAL can no longer clinch playoff spot
- Due to their losses, NYG and N.O. can no longer clinch playoff spots


WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE (Updated after 1pm ET games):

  AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami

 NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches AFC East division and a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + NYJ loss or tie
   2) NE tie + NYJ loss

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win or tie
 There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota.
 
 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta has clinched a playoff spot (due to NYG loss)
 
 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches NFC North division:
   1) CHI win + GB loss

Comments

Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 20, 2010 1:05 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

@Lensova:

Regarding your Spectrum of Possibilities post, I do not believe that KC can win a wildcard.
For KC to be wildcard-eligible, they must lose the AFCW @ 10-6 to SD on either divisional or common games tiebreak, as BAL/PIT/NYJ can finish at worst 10-6.  In any case, KC's loss will be in-conference, dropping them to 6-6 in conference, worse than BAL/PIT/NYJ could possibly finish.
KC cannot use a 10-6 JAX either, as JAX also has a better conference record than KC.

Otherwise, thanks for the list!



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:33 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Joe,

That should be the 1944 Eagles (not '42), and of course OAK was 6-0-0 in the AFL Western division (not AFC).  Sorry for the typo.



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:17 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

"One random observation:   OAK is now 5-0 in their division, but it's very unlikely even at 6-0 in the division that they will either win their division or make the playoffs.  When's the last time a team has swept their division and had that happen?   Nflrules....seems like a project for you.  Or...i'll just buzz my buddies at Elias."

Joe,

Sorry I've been MIA myself (though I wish I were in MIA with the cold weather here in the East :-))  Just want to expound further on what "wildthing202" had mentioned earlier.  These are the only times I've found when a team was undefeated in their division and did not make the postseason. (Note: Since ties weren't factored in a team's winning percentage prior to 1972, I'll include clubs who were unbeaten in division play until 1971):

1942 Philadelphia Eagles (were 6-0-2 [1.000 pct.] in Eastern division but finished 2nd with a 7-1-2 record behind NYG at 8-1-1)

1963 AFL Oakland Raiders (were 6-0-0 in AFC West but finished 2nd with a 10-4-0 record behind SD at 11-3-0)

1968 St. Louis Cardinals (5-0-1 [1.000 pct.]--finished second in Century division with a 9-4-1 record behind CLE at 10-4-0)

I found 43 other clubs since 1933 who had a division winning percentage of 1.000 (also two additional clubs from the AAFC), and each of those teams won their respective divisions. 




Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:02 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

From davidmac:

So to summarize:

NYJ is in next week with:
1) NYJ win/tie OR
2) JAX loss/tie (due to SoV over SD and conference over KC) OR
3) IND loss/tie (throwing a best-possible 10-6 AFCS to JAX, removing JAX from WC contention)

No other clinch appears to be available at this point.

----

Thanks for this info! I wasn't even sure the Jets had clinched SoV over SD (I knew it was really close), but based on your clinching scenarios they have!

My original confusion over JAX stemmed from the fact that I had previously figured if the Jets finished 10-6 their win would be against Buffalo... which would have made the common opponents tiebreaker equal with JAX. Obviously this would not be the case now. But beating the Steelers gave them the nice SoV bump --- if it somehow comes down to that.



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 20, 2010 11:49 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

agn:

No, there is not a problem with combining scenarios.  The reason my scenarios were posted as they were was for two reasons:

1) Whenever I see clinching scenarios, they generally have every scenario separated, so I am following suit

2) When I am creating the scenarios I like to keep them seperate to ensure that I don't have repetitive scenarios.  This actually came up in the TB scenarios.  If any of those teams from the Tie + NYG/GB tie get a win, it clinches SoV for NYG.  However, if one of them were to tie (and all others lose out), it would fall to SoS.  TB has a major edge in SoS, but NYG could clinch it in week 16.  However, the outcomes that would be required for NYG to clinch SoS over TB in week 16 would end up clinching SoV for NYG.  Therefore, if only one of those teams were to tie, TB would have clinched the relevant SoS tiebreaker.  I mention this because I was delineating all the scenarios when I was working on them, and as I got to one of the ties, I recognized that every scenario that involved NYG clinching SoS over TB included one of the scenarios that clinched SoV over TB.  I say all this to say that keeping the scenarios seperate allows me to ensure eliminating redundancy in my scenarios

Also, I won't lie, I do like seeing long lists of scenarios.  Something about them has some sort of aesthetic appeal to me, so I do like to keep them that way.



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 20, 2010 11:39 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

giantsplayoffs:

On initial analysis, I agree with most of what you have posted.

You are correct that NYG clinches NFC East with 2 Wins + 2 PHI losses.

You are correct that NYG clinches first round bye with 2 Wins + 2 PHI losses + 1 CHI loss

You are correct that NYG clinches a playoff berth with a win over GB.  (the reason for this is that NYG clinches SoV over TB with a win this week)

However, I do have some issue with your other scenarios.  Even if CHI loses to MIN and NYJ and TB loses 1 of 2 games, CHI could still win the NFC North with a win over GB.  GB has all but clinched SoV over NYG and has clinched SoV over TB, so NYG cannot use TB to jump over GB, and GB would own the 9-7 H2H tiebreak over GB.  Thus, your second scenario is insufficient.

Your third scenario is as close to accurate as one could be without being entirely accurate.  If NYG loses to GB and beats WAS, GB loses to CHI, and TB wins out, NYG has not yet clinched SoV over TB.  In the worst-case scenario for NYG, they are tied in SoV, so if one of a myriad of games goes in NYG's favor, then this scenario would clinch a berth for NYG.  However, NYG cannot clinch SoS over TB (anything that would lead to NYG clinching SoS over TB would lead to NYG clinching SoV over TB).  Therefore, the only way your 3rd scenario does not clinch a berth for NYG is if 14 other games finish with a specific result.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2010 11:20 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Lensova (and others).

Is there a problem combining outcomes in scenarios.

I certainly don't mind having giving scenarios that include "One (or 2) of the following...."

TB is eliminated with:
- Loss
- Tie + NYG win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + One of the following: (CHI, HOU, DET, DAL, MIN, BAL, SD, PIT, JAC OR ATL win) OR
- NO win/tie + NYG win



Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 20, 2010 11:09 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

@Pillbox:

Great question.  At this point, neither PIT nor NYJ has clinched SoV over the other, though PIT is close -- a MIN loss tonight clinches at least an SoV tie for PIT.  However, that clinch is not actuallly relevant!  The 3-way PIT/NYJ/JAX costs NYJ one SoV point -- so PIT has already clinched at least a tie for SoV.

In the case that PIT clinches SoV over NYJ, NYJ would be eliminated in a 3-way PIT/NYJ/JAX, by PIT advancing on SoV and then JAX advancing on common games.  However, if all of the remaining SoV-relevant games go NYJ's way, JAX will be eliminated 1st on SoV, and NYJ will hold on.

You're also correct in saying that if PIT/BAL take AFCN and WC#1 and JAX and IND win out, NYJ would need SD to win out and KC to win and tie or win out to force JAX into SoV and win in a 3-way over SD and JAX.

So to summarize:

NYJ is in next week with:
1) NYJ win/tie OR
2) JAX loss/tie (due to SoV over SD and conference over KC) OR
3) IND loss/tie (throwing a best-possible 10-6 AFCS to JAX, removing JAX from WC contention)

No other clinch appears to be available at this point.



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2010 10:33 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Giants scenarios...im new to this, but can you guys tell me if i am correct (Excluding ties)

Giants clinches NFC East title with
1. Two Wins + Two PHI Loses

Giants Clinch first roung bye with
1. Two Wins + Two PHI loses + one CHI loss

Giants Clinch Playoff Spot with
1. Win over GB
2. Bears loses tonight(MIN) and to Jets + Tampa losing 1 of 2 games
3. Giants Beat WASH + GB loses to CHI


Give me some advice and see if i am missing anything, thanks




Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2010 9:56 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Thanks David.But even with that being the case, it's still confusing to me: re: can the Jets win SoV over Pittsburgh if the both lose out and end up in that 3 or 4 way tie with Jacksonville and SD? 

It sounds like if they DON'T win SoV over Pittsburgh --- in that instance, they would need SD to win out (and maybe even KC to win out) to make sure SD is part of a 3-way 10-6 equation with JAX.


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