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WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Posted on: December 19, 2010 5:14 pm
 

Here is what has happened after early games this Sunday:

- Atlanta clinched playoff spot due to NYG loss (how did the Giants lose that game?)
- Arizona, Houston and Miami are now ELIMINATED from playoff contention
- PIT can no longer clinch division or 1st round bye
- Largely due to IND win over JAC:
    - JAC can no longer clinch division
    - NYJ can no longer clinch playoff spot
    - BAL can no longer clinch playoff spot
- Due to their losses, NYG and N.O. can no longer clinch playoff spots


WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE (Updated after 1pm ET games):

  AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami

 NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches AFC East division and a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + NYJ loss or tie
   2) NE tie + NYJ loss

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win or tie
 There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota.
 
 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta has clinched a playoff spot (due to NYG loss)
 
 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches NFC North division:
   1) CHI win + GB loss

Comments

Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 20, 2010 9:36 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

@Pillbox:

NYJ has not clinched because JAX holds the common games tiebreaker in the 2-way scenario with BAL/PIT holding WC#1.



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2010 7:41 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

The last team to undefeated in the division and not make the playoffs was the 1968 St.Louis Cardnials going 5-0-1.




Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2010 7:34 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Joe:<<YES...PIT has clinched a playoff spot.  They accomplished that by clinching strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker over both JAC and SD.  They needed either TEN or CIN to win to be the easiest way to clinch over JAC in the early games...and both occurred.  With those wins and other results, PIT needed an ATL win and OAK win (DEN loss) to clinch SOV over SD.   They got both again.>>
Hey Joe!Thanks for all you do (and Lensova and the other number-crunchers too!)
Here's a q for you guys:If the above is true, then how come the Jets haven't clinched a playoff spot as well, since they now have a head-to-head win over Pittsburgh if each finished 10-6?Maybe a better way of asking it:I realize that Jets haven't clinched SoV over JAC or SD... but wouldn't the Steelers have to clinch SoV over the Jets as well as JAC and SD, to clinch a playoff spot in this scenario?




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2010 5:37 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Hey guys:

Sorry for being MIA (and I don't mean Miami) on this board since earlier today, but trust me...i was fairly active with NFL and CBS on a couple topics.

YES...PIT has clinched a playoff spot.  They accomplished that by clinching strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker over both JAC and SD.  They needed either TEN or CIN to win to be the easiest way to clinch over JAC in the early games...and both occurred.  With those wins and other results, PIT needed an ATL win and OAK win (DEN loss) to clinch SOV over SD.   They got both again.

The only other teams that can be matched up with PIT at 10-6 would be NYJ (losing out) and KC (KC goes 1-1 while SD wins out and wins division over KC by either division record [if KC loss is to OAK] or common opponents [if KC loss is to TEN]).  KC would be beaten in nearly every tiebreaker based on a 6-6 conf record (they do have a H2H win over JAC, but that doesn't help here with PIT).  And JAC and SD or KC can't use NYJ to get in over PIT in multi-team tiebreaker.

One random observation:   OAK is now 5-0 in their division, but it's very unlikely even at 6-0 in the division that they will either win their division or make the playoffs.  When's the last time a team has swept their division and had that happen?   Nflrules....seems like a project for you.  Or...i'll just buzz my buddies at Elias.

QUICK WEEK 16 Thoughts (assuming no ties):

AFC
- NE has clinched a playoff spot and can clinch a first-round bye and homefield throughout playoffs with WIN at BUF.
- AFC East winner will have a first-round bye
- NYJ will clinch a playoff spot with a WIN
- PIT has clinched playoff spot and will clinch AFC North title and first-round bye with WIN and  BAL loss.
- BAL will clinch playoff spot with a win
- In AFC South, nothing can be clinched by any team this week (div title or playoffs) and three teams can still win division crown
- KC can clinch AFC West title with WIN and SD loss.

NFC
- PHI can clinch NFC East title with WIN OR NYG loss.
- PHI can clinch first-round bye with WIN + 2 CHI losses (this Monday and next week).
- NYG can clinch playoff spot with WIN (i have NYG already clinching SOV over TB if they beat GB this week)
- CHI can clinch NFC North with win at MIN tonight (MNF).
- If CHI doesn't win this week, they can clinch NFC North next week with WIN and GB loss
- CHI can clinch NFC North title and first-round bye with win this week and next and PHI loss + NYG loss
- ATL has clinched playoff spot and will clinch NFC South title and homefield throughout playoffs with WIN over N.O.
- NO can clinch playoff spot with a WIN at ATL OR losses by TB and GB
- No team in the NFC West can clinch anything this week, but SF can control its own destiny for division title with WIN and SEA loss

More to come...



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 20, 2010 2:03 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Though many of these have been posted by others, by my calculations, these are the comprehensive elimination scenarios for week 16.  The SoV between NYG and TB got a little murky for the TB scenarios, but I have what I believe to be the full scenario list now.


TB is eliminated with:
- Loss
- Tie + NYG win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + CHI win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + HOU win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + DET win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + DAL win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + MIN win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + BAL win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + SD win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + PIT win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + JAC win OR
- Tie + NYG/GB tie + ATL win OR
- NO win/tie + NYG win

If CHI wins/ties Monday night, GB is eliminated with:
- Loss

If CHI loses Monday night, GB is eliminated with:
- Loss + CHI win/tie

SF is eliminated with:
- Loss/tie


TEN is eliminated with:
- Loss/tie OR
- JAC win/tie OR
- IND win/tie

OAK is eliminated with:
- Loss/tie OR
- KC win/tie

SD is eliminated with:
- Loss + KC win/tie OR
- Tie + KC win



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 20, 2010 1:19 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Lensova,

You're right that GB currently do not control #6 seed. But that's only due to SoV over NYG and TB still undediced, but with GB currently upfront by a light year. So if GB wins out, heaven must fall down to earth to eliminate GB from playoffs. My 2 cents...



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:59 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Also, I just noticed that I forgot to delete HOU from my list since they have now been eliminated.



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:52 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Thanks for the critique, jeff.  You were exactly right in that I just forgot to adjust them from last week.  In addition, I fully agree with your corrections.  I will make the changes and repost after tomorrow night's game when the new blog entry is posted.



Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:42 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Lensova: Just a couple a minor adjustments needed to your lists, probably just things you forgot to alter from last week's listings.  JAC does not control the 4 seed, since IND does.  KC controls the 3 seed now, since IND or JAC can not win 11 games.  Also, just a minor change, but if you're going to adjust this after tomorrow's game, you have that TB could finish 2nd in the conference over NO, when that should say division.  Other than those minor nitpicks, everything looks right to me.



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:37 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Seahawks4ever:

You are indeed correct that SF is eliminated with a loss.  However, you are incorrect about SF's clinching scenario.  SF cannot clinch the NFC West this week.  If SF wins, and SEA loses, then SF, SEA, and STL would all be 6-9.  IF SF were to lose to ARI in week 17, the winner of the SEA/STL game would clinch the NFC West.  However, SF will control its own destiny if SF wins and SEA loses.


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