Blog Entry

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Posted on: December 19, 2010 5:14 pm
 

Here is what has happened after early games this Sunday:

- Atlanta clinched playoff spot due to NYG loss (how did the Giants lose that game?)
- Arizona, Houston and Miami are now ELIMINATED from playoff contention
- PIT can no longer clinch division or 1st round bye
- Largely due to IND win over JAC:
    - JAC can no longer clinch division
    - NYJ can no longer clinch playoff spot
    - BAL can no longer clinch playoff spot
- Due to their losses, NYG and N.O. can no longer clinch playoff spots


WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE (Updated after 1pm ET games):

  AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami

 NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches AFC East division and a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + NYJ loss or tie
   2) NE tie + NYJ loss

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win or tie
 There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota.
 
 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta has clinched a playoff spot (due to NYG loss)
 
 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches NFC North division:
   1) CHI win + GB loss

Comments

Since: Oct 14, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:31 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

San Francisco in Week 16:
  • Clinches the NFC West with a win and SEA loss
  • Eliminated with a loss.



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 20, 2010 12:04 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

As of the end of the Sunday night game, by my calculations, this is the list of seeds that are still achieveable by each team in the NFL, with the * following the highest seed that the team controls (i.e., the lowest possible seed the team could get if they win out).  I am leaving out any teams that are eliminated.

NFC results:

NFC East

PHI - 1, 2, 3*, 5, 6, E
NYG - 2, 3, 5, 6*, E

NFC North

CHI - 1, 2*, 3, 5, 6, E
GB - 2, 3, 5, 6, E*

NFC South

ATL - 1, 2, 3, 5
NO - 1, 5*, 6, E
TB - 5, 6, E*

NFC West

STL - 4*, E
SEA - 4*, E
SF - 4, E*

NOTES:
- PHI can get the 1 seed by H2H over ATL, CHI can get the 1 seed by common opponents over ATL.
- CHI controls the 2 seed, as they own the tiebreaker over ATL (common opponents) and PHI (H2H), and in a 3-way tie at 12-4, though they can't win the 1st seed with SoV, they will win the ensuing tiebreaker against the remaining team.
- ATL can get the 3 seed, as they can still lose the 1 seed with a 3-way CHI/PHI/ATL tie to PHI on SoV, and then subsequently lose the 2 seed to CHI on common opponents.
- NO can only get the 1 seed because they do not have H2H vs PHI or CHI, and thus will win all tiebreakers against potential opponents with conference record.
- TB could get the 5 seed by winning out, having NO lose out (thus finishing 2nd in the conference via common opponents), and having NYG and GB finish 9-7.
- The listings for PHI, CHI, and ATL will stay the same if CHI wins on Monday night, but they will be altered if CHI loses or ties

AFC Results:

AFC East:

NE - 1*, 5
NYJ - 1, 2, 5, 6*, E

AFC North:

PIT - 2*, 3, 4, 5, 6
BAL - 1, 2, 3, 5*, 6, E

AFC South:

JAC - 3, 4*, 5, 6, E
IND - 2, 3, 4*, E
HOU - 4, E*
TEN - 4, E*

AFC West:
KC - 2, 3, 4*, 5, 6, E
SD - 3, 4, 5, 6, E*
OAK - 3, 4, E*

Notes:
- NE can only get the 5 seed or 1 seed because they hold the H2H tiebreak over PIT and BAL and no 3-way ties are possible.
- PIT cannot get the 1 seed, as they would lose the H2H to NE or NYJ.
- PIT can get the 4 seed by winning their division at 10-6, having KC finish 11-5, and having PIT lose SoV to IND (which is still narrowly possible).
- BAL can get the 1 seed by H2H over NYJ
- BAL cannot get the 4 seed because winning the AFC North for BAL includes having a better record than the AFC South.  However, BAL could technically win the division at 10-5-1, and KC could finish 11-5, so BAL can get the 3rd seed.
- IND cannot get a wildcard because if they finish 10-6, they win the division, and if they finish 9-6-1 or worse, they will have a worse record than PIT/BAL and NE/NYJ
- JAC can get the 5 or 6 seed because if BAL and NYJ lose out and JAC and IND win out, JAC will finish ahead of both NYJ and BAL in common opponents.
- IND can get the two seed because they can finish ahead of PIT in SoV, but JAC cannot, so JAC cannot get the 2 seed.



Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 11:43 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Sweet!  I actually got one right!  Now where would one go to lay down $5 on a 19-team parlay?



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 11:29 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

jeff:

My calculations confirm your 19-game scenario is the only way (barring ties) that the Colts can get the 2 seed.



Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 11:01 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

According to my calculations, and confirmed by ESPN's Playoff Machine, the Colts can still get the 2 seed and earn a first round bye.  To do this they must tie PIT and BAL at 10-6, and beat PIT in Strength of Victory, since they would both be 8-4 in conference and 4-1 vs common opponents.  PIT would beat BAL on division record.  The Steelers are just one win away from clinching at least a tie for SOV over the Colts, so for IND to win SOV, barring any ties, every one of the following 19 games must go in the Colts' favor:

WEEK 16---------- WEEK 17
IND>OAK ----------IND>TEN
CAR>PIT ----------CLE>PIT
CLE>BAL ----------CIN>BAL
TEN>KC -----------KC>OAK
NYG>GB ----------DEN>SD
NE>BUF -----------NE>MIA
DET>MIA ---------CAR>ATL
SD>CIN -----------NO>TB
NO>ATL -----------NYJ>BUF
SEA>TB


If the Colts were to tie the Steelers in Strength of Victory, the results required to reach that tie would cause PIT to beat IND in Strength of Schedule, so IND must win SOV outright.  I agree with what others have said that the ESPN Playoff Machine does not count SOS, it skips from SOV to Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, which should come after SOS.  <br><br>

So I'm telling you there's a chance!



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 10:27 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

According to nfl.com, it's now official that PIT has indeed clinched a playoff spot.  On the CBS NFL playoff race page, it also indicated that PIT has indeed clonched a playoff spot



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 10:11 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

I just want to throw in my two cents and say that by my calculations, neither SD nor JAC can catch PIT in SoV, so I agree with everyone else in saying that I believe PIT has clinched a playoff berth.



Since: Dec 19, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 9:52 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Here's why TEN is not eliminated.

If they win out, and both JAX and IND lose out, all 3 teams finish with an 8-8 record. First tiebreaker is head-to-head, and they'd all be 2-2 against each other.

Next tiebreaker is division record. All 3 teams would be 1-1 against Texans, meaning they'd all be 3-3 within division.

Next tiebreaker is record vs. common opponents. JAX would be 6-8. IND would be 7-7. TEN would be 8-6.

So, believe it or not, Titans could still win the division and host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend.



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 9:48 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

masteraleph:

Sure, ATL can win the division at 12-4 as long as TB beats/ties NO in week 17.  If both teams finish 12-4, then you are indeed correct, NO would win.  However, ATL can finish 12-4 with NO finishing 11-5, which would give ATL the division at 12-4



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 9:47 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

JMan:

Actually, you misunderstood me a little.  The NFC South winner has not already clinched a bye week.  If CHI, PHI, and ATL all finish 12-4, and PHI wins the SoV tiebreaker (which is possible), then PHI would be the 1 seed, and CHI would get the 2 seed over ATL due to common opponenents.  Thus, for the NFC South winner to clinch the bye week, a loss/tie by either CHI or PHI would be required (assuming NO beats ATL).


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