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Blog Entry

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Posted on: December 19, 2010 5:14 pm
 

Here is what has happened after early games this Sunday:

- Atlanta clinched playoff spot due to NYG loss (how did the Giants lose that game?)
- Arizona, Houston and Miami are now ELIMINATED from playoff contention
- PIT can no longer clinch division or 1st round bye
- Largely due to IND win over JAC:
    - JAC can no longer clinch division
    - NYJ can no longer clinch playoff spot
    - BAL can no longer clinch playoff spot
- Due to their losses, NYG and N.O. can no longer clinch playoff spots


WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE (Updated after 1pm ET games):

  AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami

 NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches AFC East division and a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + NYJ loss or tie
   2) NE tie + NYJ loss

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win or tie
 There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota.
 
 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta has clinched a playoff spot (due to NYG loss)
 
 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches NFC North division:
   1) CHI win + GB loss

Comments

Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2010 9:46 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Lensova- I don't think that ATL can win the NFC South at 12-4.  To hit 12-4, ATL would need to lose to NO (which would tie them in head-to head).  They'd also need to lose to CAR in week 17, and NO would have to beat TB in week 17 to get them to 12-4.  That would give NO the division on divisional games.



Since: Nov 29, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 9:40 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Thanks Lensova, and for all your work this year and last (when I was just lurking on this message board).  So if I understand you correctly, then the NFC South winner has already clinched a first-round bye, but not homefield advantage as the winner will have at worst a 12-4 record and NO would win the 1 seed and ATL would win at worst the 2 seed.  So given that either would defeat Chicago in a tiebreaker, (either two-way or three way) all that is needed for the NFC South winner to be guaranteed the 1 seed is a PHI loss (or Atlanta clinching SOV).

Also want to add a few elimination scenarios I have.

TEN is eliminated (taking sportsline.com at their word that the Titans aren't already) with:
1.  Loss
2.  IND win
3.  JAC win

Over in the NFC, SF is elminiated with:
1.  Loss (to STL)

Gwsmith, as for the Jets and Ravens, I know that both back in with a loss by San Diego AND a loss by either Indianapolis or Jacksonville, but I'm not sure if either would be sufficient for either team alone.  Any tips, from either of you, for a quick/less painless way for a first-timer to do some strength of victory calculating?



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 9:04 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

JMan:

I saw my error on the IND scenario after I put it up.  Now on PIT already clinching a playoff spot base on clinching SoV tiebreakers, my calculations say they have already, as a few others here think PIT has also clinched, but we need the NFL to make it official.

Also in the AFC, NYJ and BAL can clinch playoff spots with a win or tie.  I'll need to look further to see how they can back in.

As for AFC eliminations, I have a few:
OAK is eliminated with:
1. Loss
2. KC win/tie.

SD is eliminated with:
1. Loss + KC win



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 9:04 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

JMan:

At 12-4, NO would win a 3-way NO/PHI/CHI tie (or a 2-way tie against either team) with conference record.

However, if ATL wins the NFC South at 12-4, and CHI and PHI both finish 12-4, it would fall to SoV.  ATL has clinched SoV over CHI, but not yet over PHI.

ATL can clinch SoV over PHI this week, but it is quite complicated.  However, if, as you say PHI and CHI each lose an additional game, the NFC South winner will win the 1 seed by record alone.





Since: Nov 29, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 8:25 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Fjordofpinky:

Also, to add to your Falcons scenario (which is completely correct).  With a win over New Orleans, Atlanta will clinch the NFC South, a First-Round Bye, and Homefield Advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.

Additionally, I'm curious (and don't have time to work it out tonight with a final exam coming up on Tuesday) if a First-Round Bye can be clinched next week for the eventual NFC South winner (whoever it ends up being in the event of a NO win over ATL next week) with losses by PHL and CHI.  I know it would go past conference record and just don't have the time to work it out right now.  Thanks all.



Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2010 8:22 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

JMan2788:  According to all of my calculations, PIT has in fact clinched SoV over SD in any SD/JAX/PIT and in any NYJ/SD/PIT tie situation, clinching them a playoff berth.
-Dave



Since: Nov 29, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 8:12 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Gwsmith, just have one clarification/correction.  Indianapolis cannot clinch the AFC South next week.  If they win and the Jaguars lose next week, they'll both have division records of 3-2.  The Colts will be 10-5 and the Jaguars 9-6.

If, in Week 17, Jacksonville beats Houston and Indianapolis loses to Houston, they'll finish in a tie at 10-6 with a head-to-head split.  Jacksonville will win the division on division record (4-2 to Indianapolis' 3-3).

Also, an aside/semi-clarification (and somebody please let me know), am I correct in thinking that Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff berth based on clinching certain SOV tiebreakers via Oakland winning?  Also, gwsmith, your thinking for the AFC North next week is correct, Pittsburgh can clinch the division and first-round bye with a win and a Baltimore loss by guaranteeing both a better division record than the Ravens and a better conference record than Kansas City.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 7:59 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

Some other quick scenarios for the AFC in week 16:

IND clinches AFC South w/ win and a JAC loss

PIT clinches a playoff spot with any one of the folowing:
1. Win or tie
2. SD Loss/tie
3. JAC loss/tie

PIT clinches AFC North and 1st round bye with a win and a BAL loss to CLE based on division record tiebreaker. Would get 1st round bye over KC based on better AFC record than KC.

I'm pretty certain that the final BAL/PIT tiebreaker won't come down to SoV.



Since: Dec 19, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2010 7:31 pm
 

Sick and TIred of the Refs. on the Steelers




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2010 6:47 pm
 

WEEK 15 AFC & NFC UPDATED AFTER 1pm Games

fjordofpinky:

Even with a PIT loss today, PIT can get the AFC North and 1st round bye with just 2 wins as PIT would win the division record tiebreaker over BAL.  If PIT beats CAR and BAL loses to CLE next week, PIT takes the AFC North.


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