Blog Entry

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios

Posted on: December 26, 2010 9:06 pm
 

  AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England - AFC East division, first round bye and homefield throughout playoffs.
Kansas City - AFC West division.
Pittsburgh - playoff spot.
Baltimore - playoff spot.
New York Jets - playoff spot
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland, Houston, Miami, Oakland, Tennessee, San Diego


 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win
   2) BAL loss 
   3) PIT tie + BAL tie 

 BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches AFC North division and a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss or tie
   2) BAL tie + PIT loss

 INDIANAPOLIS Colts
  Indianapolis clinches AFC South division:
   1) IND win or tie
   2) JAC loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches AFC South division:
   1) JAC win + IND loss


SEEDS
 #1 - NEW ENGLAND
 #2 - PIT (see scenario above)
    - BAL (see scenario above)
 #3 - KC (KC win/tie or IND loss/tie)
    - IND (IND win + KC loss)
 #4 - KC (KC loss + IND win)
    - IND (IND win + KC win/tie OR win/tie OR JAC loss/tie)
    - JAC (JAC win + IND loss)
 #5 - BAL (division scenario above does not occur)
    - PIT (division scenario above does not occur + NYJ loss/tie)
    - NYJ (NYJ win + PIT loss + BAL win/tie)
 #6 - NYJ (NYJ loss/tie OR PIT win/tie OR BAL loss
    - PIT (PIT loss + BAL win/tie + NYJ win)

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2011 10:04 pm
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios

Chili,

The first tiebreaker for the draft order is Strength of Schedule (SoS), not Strength of Victory (SoV).

Going into today, there were as many as 3 sets of 3 teams that could be tied in overall record and tied in SoS. While Was-Dal-Hou did end up tied in overall record, they did not end up tied in SoS. In fact there were no ties in both overall record and SoS, not even among two teams. (at least not among non-playoff teams. I haven't looked at potential SoS ties among playoff teams)

Here is where Ten-Was-Dal-Hou stood going into today (Factoring in the wins of their opponents from todays results needed to create the tie in overall record.)

Tennessee 129 + MIA (at NE) + PIT (at Cle)
Washington 131 + TB (at NO) + STL (at Sea)
Dallas 131 + NO (vs. TB) + ARI (at SF)
Houston 132 + NYJ (vs. Buf) + BAL (vs. Cin)


Here is where these teams ended up.

Tennessee 130
Dallas 131
Washington 132 + STL
Houston 134



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2011 9:22 pm
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios

2011 OPPONENTS (AFC):

AFC EAST

BUFFALO BILLS
Home:  MIA, NE, NYJ, DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS, TEN
Away:   MIA, NE, NYJ, KC, SD, DAL, NYG, CIN

MIAMI DOLPHINS
Home:  BUF, NE, NYJ, DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS, HOU
Away:   BUF, NE, NYJ, KC, SD, DAL, NYG, CLE

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Home:  BUF, MIA, NYJ, KC, SD, DAL, NYG, IND
Away:   BUF, MIA, NYJ, DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS, PIT

NEW YORK JETS
Home:  BUF, MIA, NE, KC, SD, DAL, NYG, JAC
Away:   BUF, MIA, NE, DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS, BAL

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Home:  CIN, CLE, PIT, HOU, IND, ARI, SF, NYJ
Away:   CIN, CLE, PIT, JAC, TEN, STL, SEA, SD

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Home:  BAL, CLE, PIT, HOU, IND, ARI, SF, BUF
Away:   BAL, CLE, PIT, JAC, TEN, STL, SEA, DEN

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Home:  BAL, CIN, PIT, JAC, TEN, STL, SEA, MIA
Away:   BAL, CIN, PIT, HOU, IND, ARI, SF, OAK

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Home:  BAL, CIN, CLE, JAC, TEN, STL, SEA, NE
Away:   BAL, CIN, CLE, HOU, IND, ARI, SF, KC

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON TEXANS
Home:  IND, JAC, TEN, CLE, PIT, ATL, CAR, OAK
Away:   IND, JAC, TEN, BAL, CIN, NO, TB, MIA

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Home:  HOU, JAC, TEN, CLE, PIT, ATL, CAR, KC
Away:   HOU, JAC, TEN, BAL, CIN, NO, TB, NE

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Home:  HOU, IND, TEN, BAL, CIN, NO, TB, SD
Away:   HOU, IND, TEN, CLE, PIT, ATL, CAR, NYJ

TENNESSEE TITANS
Home:  HOU, IND, JAC, BAL, CIN, NO, TB, DEN
Away:   HOU, IND, JAC, CLE, PIT, ATL, CAR, BUF

AFC WEST

DENVER BRONCOS
Home:  KC, OAK, SD, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, CIN
Away:   KC, OAK, SD, BUF, MIA, GB, MIN, TEN

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Home:  DEN, OAK, SD, BUF, MIA, GB, MIN, PIT
Away:   DEN, OAK, SD, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, IND

OAKLAND RAIDERS
Home:  DEN, KC, SD, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, CLE
Away:   DEN, KC, SD, BUF, MIA, GB, MIN, HOU

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Home:  DEN, KC, OAK, BUF, MIA, GB, MIN, BAL
Away:   DEN, KC, OAK, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, JAC



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2011 8:10 pm
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios



Brett

in 2)  Was-Dal-Hou at 6-10; 132 SoS wins.
required: Was loss (vs. NYG), Dal win (at Phi), Hou win (vs. Jac)



in that, is SoV really the same???



Since: Nov 19, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2011 4:25 pm
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios

An Indy win and they are the #3 seed and get the Jets.  Kansas City fals to #4 and gets Baltimore.  #1 New england and #2 Pitt get the bye weeks.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2011 4:09 pm
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios

Here's what we know after the early games:

NE is the #2 seed
PIT is the #2 seed
BAL is the #5 seed
NYJ is the #6 seed

KC can still be the #3 seed with a IND tie or loss
IND can get the #3 seed with a win
IND will be the #4 seed with a tie or JAC loss
JAC can only be a #4 seed, but need a win + IND loss



Since: Feb 4, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2011 1:23 pm
 

Potential Week 17 AFC Tiebreakers

Any division ties will be broken with division records.

KC loses any tie via conference record.

Any tie for seeding of the wildcard team will be determined via H2H games.  NYJ beat PIT and lost to BAL.



Since: Oct 8, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2011 10:08 am
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios

Be careful what you wish for.



Since: Jan 17, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2011 2:38 am
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios

Sounds good to me, then GB revenges that loss in NE 19 Dec.Money mouth



Since: Dec 23, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2011 1:14 am
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios

Doesn't Matter Feb 6  Green bay Vs New England In  Big D



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2011 4:24 pm
 

Early Week 17 AFC Clinching and Seed Scenarios


Now that no complicated SoV scenario exists, perhaps we (self-proclaimed tiebreaking nerds) can get excited for (and even root for) potential draft order ties in which a multi-way strength of schedule tie is still possible.  As it turns out, there are 3 such scenarios still possible: all are 3-way ties and a breakdown of each follows below.

There are two possible ensuing tiebreaking processes: one if teams are from the same conference and one if they are not. Personally, I find the two processes to be somewhat contradictory; so naturally I am wondering what other people think about this. A discussion on this is at the bottom of the post, after the breakdown of the scenarios.

Potential 3-way Draft Order ties with tied SoS.

(only 2 games affect SoS for each team)



1)  Cin-Buf-Cle at 5-11; 146 or 147 SoS wins.
required: Cin win (at Bal), Buf win (at NYJ), Cle loss (vs. Pit);
Current SoS totals + 2 games affecting SoS; courtesy of jpinyan's post.
Cincinnati 145 + IND (vs. Ten) + SD (at Den)
Cleveland 146 + JAX (at Hou)+ KC (vs. Oak)
Buffalo 146 + JAX (at Hou) + KC (vs. Oak)

2)  Was-Dal-Hou at 6-10; 132 SoS wins.

required: Was loss (vs. NYG), Dal win (at Phi), Hou win (vs. Jac)

Current SoS totals + 2 games affecting SoS; courtesy of jpinyan's post.

- (TB at NO) prevents Ten from tying both Was and Dal.
- (TB at NO) also prevents Was and Dal from both reaching 133 SoS wins.
Tennessee 129 + MIA (at NE) + PIT (at Cle)
Washington 131 + TB (at NO) + STL (at Sea)
Dallas 131 + NO (vs. TB) + ARI (at SF)
Houston 132 + NYJ (vs. Buf) + BAL (vs. Cin) ; losses needed in both.

3)  Jac-SD-NYG at 9-7; 116 SoS wins; Jac doesn't win the AFC South
required: Jac win (at Hou), SD win (at Den), NYG loss (at Was), Ind win or tie (vs. Ten)

Current SoS totals + 2 games affecting SoS; courtesy of jpinyan's post.
Jacksonville 114 + BUF (at NYJ) + CLE (vs. Pit) ; wins needed in both.
San Diego 116 + NE (vs. Mia) + CIN (at Bal) ; losses needed in both.
NY Giants 116 + CAR (at Atl) + SEA (vs. StL); losses needed in both.

(2) and (3) cannot both happen. In (2) Was has to lose and in (3) NYG have to lose: impossible for both to happen because NYG play at Was. Also, Bal and Cin each most lose to keep Houston, in (2), and SD, in (3), at their current SoS win totals: again impossible because Cin plays at Bal.

(1) and (3) cannot both happen. In (1) Cin has to win to get to 5-11, but in (3) Cin has to lose to keep SD's SoS at 116 wins. Also, in (1) Cle has to lose to fall to 5-11, but in (3) Cle has to win so that Jac's SoS can get to 116 wins.

(1) and (2) can both happen : This is particularly interesting because it means that both tiebreaking processes could be used in the same draft.


Breakdown of the Tiebreaking Processes.

(in bold are the parts that I believe to be contradictory)



(1)  Cin-Buf-Cle (all teams from the same conference):


(according to the current draft order tiebreaking language)
1) Cin is ranked ahead of Cle in the AFC North (3-3 to 1-4 in division record).
2) Buf is ranked ahead of Cin (head-to-head win).
3) Cin again is ranked ahead of Cle (3-3 to 1-4 in division record).

Ranking:
(1) Buf, (2) Cin, (3) Cle

1st round draft priority, determined from the ranking:
(1) Cle, (2) Cin, (3) Buf


(2)  Was-Dal-Hou (at least one team from each conference):

(according to the precedence set in the 2008 draft order tie between Atl, KC, and Oak)
1) Dal is ranked ahead of Was in the NFC East (3-3 to 2-4 in division record)
2) Coin flip decides draft priority between Was and Hou.
3a) If Hou wins the coin flip: 1st round priority is (1) Hou, (2) Was, (3) Dal.
3b) If Was wins the coin flip: Was gets top priority, and a 2nd coin flip decides priority between Dal and Hou.

Note: For teams in different conferences, coin flipping is the only tiebreaker past SoS.
Therefore, Hou's H2H win vs. Was, and Hou's H2H loss vs. Dal, are ignored.

Ranking:
In this scenario, ranking is not used to determine draft priority; the draft priority is determined first.
If ranking were determined first (to use for determining draft priority , as it is in the "same conference" scenario), then the first coin flip would be between Dal and Hou, to determine the highest ranking among the group.

1st round draft priority:
(1) Hou, (2) Was, (3) Dal:  (Hou wins coin flip with Was)
(1) Was, (2) Hou, (3) Dal:  (Hou losses flip with Was, but wins flip with Dal)
(1) Was, (2) Dal, (3) Hou:  (Hou losses both coin flips)



(3)  Jac-SD-NYG (at least one team from each conference):

This is similar to scenario (2), so only the key info here is pointed out:
1) Jac lost head-to-head to SD; the first coin flip is therefore between Jac and NYG.
2) Jac's H2H loss vs. NYG is ignored.


Discussion of Contradictory Parts

(a)  Head-to-head games between teams in different conferences are ignored.
No reason for me to believe that this rule couldn't be changed. I'm confident everyone involved would prefer a head-to-head result break a tie instead of a coin flip.

(b)  Ranking not
used to determine 1st round drafting priority in the "different conferences" case.
Personally, I think coin flipping should determine draft priority (not ranking). In all other coin flipping instances that I can think of, the winner of a coin flip is rewarded (not punished). Therefore, I would prefer the process used in scenario (1) be altered so that it is more consistent with the process used in scenarios (2) and (3). I prefer the breakdown for (1) to be as follows:

(1)  Cin-Buf-Cle (all teams from the same conference):

(this alternate breakdown I believe would still be consistent with the current tiebreaking language)
1) Cle is ranked below Cin in the AFC North (1-4 to 3-3 in division record).
2) Cle is awarded priority over Buf (head-to-head loss ).
3) Cin is awarded priority over Buf (head-to-head loss ).
Ranking:
Not needed.

1st round draft priority, NOT determined from a ranking:
(1) Cle, (2) Cin, (3) Buf
In this specific scenario, it turns out that the 1st round priority does not change with the alternate process. However, it was equally likely that the alternate process would have changed the priority: equally likely because Buf was not compared to Cle in the original breakdown. (Buf could have had the head-to-head loss vs. Cle instead of Cle having it vs. Buf.)

It makes sense to me, on an intuitive level, to have division and conference tiebreakers first select the team with the top priority, then continue selecting one team at a time in order of priority. Likewise, to me, on an intuitive level, it does not make sense to first rank teams as if they were in contention for a playoff spot, then reverse their ranking to determine drafting priority.

Regarding the intent of the draft order tiebreaking language, I believe a case could be made for either the original process or the alternate process. I therefore think that "precedence" would rule. However, since we don't have precedence yet, we can only wait until we get it. It would be nice if the competition committee could make a definitive ruling on the correct interpretation, but why ask them to spend time discussing something before it becomes relevant? I would much rather all the tiebreaking rules be evaluated/re-evaluated and then hopefully have language added which indicates clearly that the "alternate" process is the one to be used.

Maybe someone (Matt? Muttley? Jpinyan? Vito? Wayne? Jeff6286? Jeff5768?) can spell out the scenario for us that would give us both (1) and (2).

Any comments would be much appreciated.

Brett


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com