Blog Entry

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 29, 2010 12:30 pm
 

Well, we made it through another tiebreaker season.  Thanks to all for your participation, well-thought out comments and feedback.   Atlanta losing on Monday night certainly made for an interesting group of scenarios for the #1 seed in the NFC, but Philadelphia laying an egg on Tuesday night simplified many things in the NFC.   Full scenarios are listed below.

NOTES:
- ATL will be #1 seed UNLESS they lose and either NO or CHI wins
- ATL will be #2 seed if they lose and NO loses and CHI wins
- ATL will be #5 seed if they lose and both NO and CHI win
- NO can only be a #1 or #5 seed and will be #1 if they win and ATL loses
- If NO not #1 seed, they will be #5 and play AT NFC West winner (STL or SEA) Wild Card weekend (Saints beat both teams this year at home)
- CHI is the #2 seed unless ATL and NO both lose and CHI wins...then CHI would be #1 seed
- PHI is the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed (either GB, NYG or TB) on Wild Card weekend
- The STL-SEA winner (or STL in case of a tie) will host ATL or NO (whichever doesn't win the South) on Wild Card weekend
- GB will know by game time if their opponent (CHI) is locked into #2 seed (CHI would need ATL and NO losses in 1pm ET games to have chance at #1 seed).
- If GB wins, they will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend as the #6 seed.
- If TB wins early, GB knows they will need to win to get into playoffs and TB will root for GB and NYG losses to get a trip to PHI.
- TB game only matters to NYG if the Giants tie WAS.
- NYG can only get in as #6 seed and would play at PHI for a third game this season against the Eagles with a WIN and GB loss
- If TB, GB and NYG all win or all lose, GB will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend based on GB winning strength of victory tiebreaker among the three teams at 10-6 or 9-7.   At 10-6, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 74 while NYG and TB would have maximums of 65 and 59 wins respectively.  At 9-7, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 63 while NYG and TB would have maximum of 61 and 49 wins respectively. 

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division and a first-round bye.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
               New Orleans - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division and a first-round bye:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches homefield advantage:
   1) CHI win + ATL loss + NO loss or tie

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South and homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + ATL loss

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

 NEW YORK GIANTS
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

 ST. LOUIS Rams
  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 4, 2011 1:21 am
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios


18 game schedule


Last year, Wayne, agn, myself, noob, and a couple others discussed, in great detail, different 18-game formats. By the end, we were all in agreement with the format Wayne just posted on here. One major benefit is that ALL pairs of teams which don't have a head-to-head game will have 8 common games! And with no repeat opponents! If, for example, the East doesn't play the West, then each East and West team plays each North and South team, exactly one time each. That makes the common games tiebreaker more viable and more equitable between teams.

Furthermore, (after division tiebreakers eliminate all but one team from each division), every set of 3 teams has exactly 2 head-to-head games, which should yield a sweep 50% of the time (maybe a little less if you argue that any time a sweep exists among 3 teams, those 3 teams are slightly less likely to be tied).

Lastly, in any 4-team combination (after division tiebreakers eliminate all but one team from each division), each team will have exactly 2 head-to-head games. That means that databases's "A and B sweep  C and D" type sweep would be possible in all 4-team combinations.

4 team divisions too small?

Despite my previous post touting the potential Saints-Packers and Eagles-Giants wildcard weekend, I still favor only having 4 teams per division. I think it's great for fans of the current NFC West teams to go into each season knowing their team has a legitimate chance of winning the division. Also, I looked at my proposed 6 division alignment to see how things would have shaken out this season. While the divisions look great on paper (or on screen), I'm convinced that the NFC West would have been worse with the Saints in it. It might have looked like this...

New Orleans 14-2
Seattle 6-10
St. Louis 6-10
San Francisco 5-11
Arizona 4-12

New Orleans would have clinched probably in week 11! The other 4 teams would have been eliminated from wildcard contention in weeks 13-15.

But, man! These divisions (below) do look soooo good, don't they?

The South teams (in both conferences) are the only teams separated from their current division mates.
NFC East
New York Giants
Philadelphia
Dallas
Washington
Carolina

NFC Central
Chicago
Green Bay
Minnesota
Detroit
Tampa Bay
Atlanta

NFC West
San Francisco
Arizona
St. Louis
Seattle
New Orleans

AFC East
Buffalo
Miami
New England
New York Jets
Jacksonville

AFC Central
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
Tennessee

AFC West
Denver
Oakland
Kansas City
San Diego
Houston

 






Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 4, 2011 12:30 am
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

I got an open letter from Roger Goodell, addressing NFL fans. Not sure how I got it, except that it came from NFL.com. In it, he said the following about an 18 game schedule, making it seem like he will not agree to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) without it.
A significant change would be to resolve fan complaints about preseason by modifying our 20-game format. Fans tell us they don’t like the quality of the preseason games , and we’re listening. An enhanced season of 18 regular season and two preseason games would not add a single game for the players collectively, but would give fans more meaningful, high-quality football.
The increase to 18 regular season games, makes the schedule for Chili's 4 divisions of 8 teams less of a hurdle (or no hurdle at all). Let me explain.

Of a team's 7 division opponents, a team would play 3 of them twice and the other 4 only once. Then they would play 4 of the teams in the other division within their conference. And lastly, 4 games against teams out-of-conference. You can see how similar this is to the current scheduling!

The out-of-conference rotation would be exactly as it is now. In-conference, there would be a similar rotation for teams in the other division: half the teams one year, the other half the next year (every team at home every 4 years). Within a division, a team could play the same 3 opponents twice every year, or possibly keep 2 the same every year and have a rotation for the 3rd team. If only 2 are kept the same and there is a rotation for the 3rd team, clusters of 3 teams would not work. Teams would have to be paired as followed: A-B B-C C-D D-E E-F F-G G-H H-A. Then the 3rd pairing for each team could be on a yearly rotation.

The interesting thing is that this would be nearly identical to Wayne's suggested 18-game schedule for the current 8 division format. Just imagine that the East and North divisions are permanently paired into one East-North division. Likewise, imagine the South and West divisions are permanently paired into one South-West division. For example, every year, the East teams in the East-North division play each other twice and play the North teams once. Then, they alternate yearly between playing the South teams and the West teams. The only differenece in Wayne's format is his format has the East teams rotating yearly among the North, South, and West (playing two of the three) instead of always playing the North and alternating between the South and West.

So with no real difference in the scheduling between 4 divisions of 8 teams and 8 divisions of 4 teams, why make the change? The answer is simple. Imagine this season: Instead of the 7-9 Seahawks in the playoffs, we would have the 10-6 Giants. This weekend, we would have a Saints-Packers game, and a coveted rematch between the Giants and Eagles!




Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2011 9:42 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

The current division setup allows for each team to play all other teams home and home with inter conf opponents once every 8 years and intra conf opponents every 6 years. when the NFL expands to 18 games i hope that each division plays their own div and every other team in 2 divisions and NO games with the 3rd div. Then alternate the divs in succeeding years. That way a division will have 9 games in common with a div they play and 8 games in common with a div they dont play. for the playoff a league should only put it's best teams in the playoffs or assign seeds by winning percentage like th NBA does. for people who do not agree with omitting div champs on poor records and want a div championship to count then pay the players the following pay. All players on a specific team get:

1st place  $100,000.00
2nd place    $50,000.00
3rd place  $25,000.00
4th place   nothing
 



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2011 2:28 pm
 

Divisions Blow them Up



I want to thank everyone for engaging in this discussion


The present division structure is just one bad thing after another.    If it is not wildly differing SoS for teams, a 7-9 team is in the playoffs when two 10-6 teams are out.


___________________________________

________



I appreciate all those who tried to jumble the teams into 6 Divisions, and I have done that in the past two.    Now many of you can see some of the issues which develop with 6 Divisions.    &
nbsp;


That is why I have become convinced that 4 divisions gives us so many combinations of DIVISION RIVALRIES, it is just the way to go.


Too many people who commented focused on what has to be given up, not looking at what can be GAINED, WHICH IS GREAT REGULAR SEASON GAMES AND RIVALRIES.


___________________________________

______



I'm going to repost this and try to get these ideas out there

I believe with 4 divisions, we get more strong team - strong team match-ups during the regular season, which fosters the development of RIVALRIES, THE CLASH OF TITANS.


NFC North - East











Who would not like to see Green Bay play the Giants twice a year?    How about the Chicago Bears against the Giants twice a year?
Baltimore could play Washington and Philly twice a year.    Baltimore is historically an NFC City.    This is a GREAT DIVISION.   The historic NFC rivalries which have diminished are brought back.    These are games that I want to watch twice a year, and I think the fans would find these combinations of teams playing twice a year FAR BETTER than playing far-away teams once every four years.    This really is a GREAT DIVISION, winning this division MEANS SOMETHING.


NFC   South - West











Put Houston, Dallas and New Orleans together.    It is silly to have them in three divisions, rarely playing each other.    Atlanta and Carolina are both southern teams.    Houston, Dallas and New Orleans are close enough that fans can drive to rival cities to see their teams play away.


AFC  North - East











THE CLASH OF TITANS of Pittsburgh, New England and Indy - make them play each other twice a year.     Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Cleveland are so natural it is obvious.    Cincy is close to both Indy and Tennessee and those fans would be able to travel to the away cities to see their teams play their rivals.  This is a GREAT DIVISION.



AFC South - West











This division is really good.    I want to watch these games.    The 3 Florida teams are together, which would greatly help ticket sales and fans can easily travel to rival cities for the division games within Florida, which would be six games a year.   The California aspect of this division is good too, adding four games within California per year.     These teams might have the least historical connections, however this division has massive potential.    All the citrus states are in this division.    It also preserves the AFC West in strong ways.





Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2011 1:46 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios






your comment at 12:10


Thats a really good idea, I like it.    It is worthy of a great deal of thought and consideration


Please note    Teams change in strength     This year may not be representative, but the #2 divisions appeared to be the most difficult


but also, the #3 and #4 divisions catch a serious break on SoS and that is good for the teams and the fans.    It makes the wildcard races really competitive, which again is good.


.



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2011 1:38 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios



OK so, next year the Giants will get a break in SoS


However, I can assure you over the past 8 years, that has NOT been the case with the Giant having tough division opponents (compared to other divisions) AND getting the tough side of the division rotations.



This is perhaps the first year in a long time they might get an easier schedule



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2011 12:23 am
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

2011 OPPONENTS (NFC):

NFC EAST

DALLAS COWBOYS
Home:  NYG, PHI, WAS, STL, SEA, BUF, MIA, DET
Away:   NYG, PHI, WAS, ARI, SF, NE, NYJ, TB

NEW YORK GIANTS
Home:  DAL, PHI, WAS, STL, SEA, BUF, MIA, GB
Away:   DAL, PHI, WAS, ARI, SF, NE, NYJ, NO

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Home:  DAL, NYG, WAS, ARI, SF, NE, NYJ, CHI
Away:   DAL, NYG, WAS, STL, SEA, BUF, MIA, ATL

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Home:  DAL, NYG, PHI, ARI, SF, NE, NYJ, MIN
Away:   DAL, NYG, PHI, STL, SEA, BUF, MIA, CAR

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO BEARS
Home:  DET, GB, MIN, ATL, CAR, KC, SD, SEA
Away:   DET, GB, MIN, NO, TB, DEN, OAK, PHI

DETROIT LIONS
Home:  CHI, GB, MIN, ATL, CAR, KC, SD, SF
Away:   CHI, GB, MIN, NO, TB, DEN, OAK, DAL

GREEN BAY PACKERS
Home:  CHI, DET, MIN, NO, TB, DEN, OAK, STL
Away:   CHI, DET, MIN, ATL, CAR, KC, SD, NYG

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Home:  CHI, DET, GB, NO, TB, DEN, OAK, ARI
Away:   CHI, DET, GB, ATL, CAR, KC, SD, WAS

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA FALCONS
Home:  CAR, NO, TB, GB, MIN, JAC, TEN, PHI
Away:   CAR, NO, TB, CHI, DET, HOU, IND, SEA

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Home:  ATL, NO, TB, GB, MIN, JAC, TEN, WAS
Away:   ATL, NO, TB, CHI, DET, HOU, IND, ARI

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Home:  ATL, CAR, TB, CHI, DET, HOU, IND, NYG
Away:   ATL, CAR, TB, GB, MIN, JAC, TEN, STL

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Home:  ATL, CAR, NO, CHI, DET, HOU, IND, DAL
Away:   ATL, CAR, NO, GB, MIN, JAC, TEN, SF

NFC WEST

ARIZONA CARDINALS
Home:  STL, SF, SEA, DAL, NYG, CLE, PIT, CAR
Away:   STL, SF, SEA, PHI, WAS, BAL, CIN, MIN

ST. LOUIS RAMS
Home:  ARI, SF, SEA, PHI, WAS, BAL, CIN, NO
Away:   ARI, SF, SEA, DAL, NYG, CLE, PIT, GB

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Home:  ARI, STL, SEA, DAL, NYG, CLE, PIT, TB
Away:   ARI, STL, SEA, PHI, WAS, BAL, CIN, DET

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Home:  ARI, STL, SF, PHI, WAS, BAL, CIN, ATL
Away:   ARI, STL, SF, DAL, NYG, CLE, PIT, CHI

NOTE:  The 2011 AFC Opponents were posted earlier in the Week 17 AFC blog.



Since: Jan 2, 2011
Posted on: January 3, 2011 12:10 am
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

    If you guys want to reset the divisions based on previous season performance, just have the divisions be set based on where each team finished the season before.  This would mean that all of the #1 teams would play in the same division, all #2's in their own division, etc.

    #1 NFC division for 2011.  Atlanta, Chicago, Philly, and Seattle.
    #2     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;    New  Orleans, Green Bay, NY Giants, St Louis.
    #3     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;    Tampa Bay, Detroit, San Fran, Dallas.
    #4     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;    Minnesota, Washington, Arizona, Carolina

    #1 AFC divison for 2011   New England, Pittsburgh, Indy, KC.
    #2     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;    Baltimore, New York Jets, San Diego, Jacksonville.
    #3 &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;  Oakland, Miami, Houston, Cleveland.
    #4 &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;  Tennessee, Denver, Buffalo, Cincinnati.

If this had happened this year, this is what the divisions would have been on 2010

    #1 NFC division for 2010   New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona
    #2 &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;  Green Bay, Philly, Atlanta, San Fran
    #3 &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;  Carolina, NY Giants, Chicago, Seattle
    #4     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;    Washington, Tampa Bay, Detroit, St. Louis

    #1  AFC division for 2010  Indy, San Diego, New England, Cincinnati.
    #2     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;    NY Jets, Baltimore, Houston, Denver
    #3     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;    Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Miami, Oakland
    #4     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;    Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cleveland, Kansas City.



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2011 12:04 am
 

7 - 9



Im not going to cry for any particular team, however with the Mini-divisions, this was bound to happen



The Mini-divisions do strange things, like distort the schedules of all the teams, and magnify the lack of a level playing field for the wildcard.



There is another way.   We can do better



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2011 9:47 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

two small corrections to SoS win totals - luckily none affect the draft order.
8/?)  Seattle 126
19)  NY Giants 115 + SEA


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