Blog Entry

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 29, 2010 12:30 pm

Well, we made it through another tiebreaker season.  Thanks to all for your participation, well-thought out comments and feedback.   Atlanta losing on Monday night certainly made for an interesting group of scenarios for the #1 seed in the NFC, but Philadelphia laying an egg on Tuesday night simplified many things in the NFC.   Full scenarios are listed below.

- ATL will be #1 seed UNLESS they lose and either NO or CHI wins
- ATL will be #2 seed if they lose and NO loses and CHI wins
- ATL will be #5 seed if they lose and both NO and CHI win
- NO can only be a #1 or #5 seed and will be #1 if they win and ATL loses
- If NO not #1 seed, they will be #5 and play AT NFC West winner (STL or SEA) Wild Card weekend (Saints beat both teams this year at home)
- CHI is the #2 seed unless ATL and NO both lose and CHI wins...then CHI would be #1 seed
- PHI is the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed (either GB, NYG or TB) on Wild Card weekend
- The STL-SEA winner (or STL in case of a tie) will host ATL or NO (whichever doesn't win the South) on Wild Card weekend
- GB will know by game time if their opponent (CHI) is locked into #2 seed (CHI would need ATL and NO losses in 1pm ET games to have chance at #1 seed).
- If GB wins, they will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend as the #6 seed.
- If TB wins early, GB knows they will need to win to get into playoffs and TB will root for GB and NYG losses to get a trip to PHI.
- TB game only matters to NYG if the Giants tie WAS.
- NYG can only get in as #6 seed and would play at PHI for a third game this season against the Eagles with a WIN and GB loss
- If TB, GB and NYG all win or all lose, GB will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend based on GB winning strength of victory tiebreaker among the three teams at 10-6 or 9-7.   At 10-6, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 74 while NYG and TB would have maximums of 65 and 59 wins respectively.  At 9-7, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 63 while NYG and TB would have maximum of 61 and 49 wins respectively. 


  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division and a first-round bye.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
               New Orleans - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division and a first-round bye:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie

  Chicago clinches homefield advantage:
   1) CHI win + ATL loss + NO loss or tie

  New Orleans clinches NFC South and homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + ATL loss

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win


Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2011 9:02 pm

Like the Giants..............

Like the Giants, some people just can't get it right

A suicidal man plummeted nine stories and survived in midtown New York on Sunday when he landed on a trash heap that had piled up since last week's blizzard slammed the city.

Knowing the Giants would not make the playoffs, Vangelis Kapatos, 26, jumped from an apartment on W. 45th St. near Eighth Ave. a few minutes before noon.  

Cop sources said he had tried to take his life a number of other ways immediately before leaping.

He was rushed to Bellevue Hospital Center, where he was in critical but stable condition early Sunday evening, police said.

"He landed on a garbage pile," one official said. "That's the only reason he's alive."

Cops said Kapatos' injuries were not life-threatening.

New York City suspended trash collection after the Dec. 26 snowstorm that paralyzed the city. It was expected to resume tomorrow.

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2011 8:55 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

2011 1st Roud Draft Order for non-playoff teams.

If Seattle loses tonight, they get the 8th pick in 1st round. If St. Louis loses tonight, they get the 14th pick in the 1st round. The winner of the St. Louis-Seattle game will draft at some point after all non-playoff teams have drafted.

Teams with the same overall record rotate priority from round to round.

Teams in boldface lost today. Teams in italics won today. Strength of Schedule win total (1st tiebreaker) is listed next to each team.

1)  Carolina 

2)  Denver 132
3)  Buffalo 148
4)  Cincinnati 149

5)  Arizona 119
6)  Cleveland 146

7)  San Francisco 125
8/?)  Seattle 127
9/8)  Tennessee 130
10/9)  Dallas 131
11/10)  Washington 132 + STL
12/11)  Houston 134
13/12)  Minnesota 138
14/13)  Detroit 139 + STL 

?/14)  St. Louis 115
15)  Miami 138

16)  Jacksonville 116 
17)  Oakland 120

18)  San Diego

19)  NY Giants 114 + SEA
20)  Tampa Bay 122

Wildcard Weekend losers

Conference Semifinal losers

Conference Championship losers

Superbowl loser

Superbowl winner

Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2011 8:55 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Suspension of reality time

Or News from Roswell, New Mexico:

"New York Giants co-owner John Mara says Tom Coughlin will return to coach the team next season. Mara spoke after the Giants failed for the second straight year to make the playoffs. He said there was “never any doubt” that Coughlin would be back."

Does Mara have a problem with reality?

Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2011 8:42 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Seattle just scored

These Mini-divisions stink big-time

Who will win the DOG DIVISION ???      
; The suspence is gripping the nation.............

or putting everyone to sleep.

Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2011 8:16 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

And here's how I know this:

The Teamsters have a snowflake on their logo

So there is no way the New York City Sanitation Union, which is part of the Teamsters, would purposely slow down the snowplowing, right?

OR would they?


Since: Nov 19, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2011 4:23 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Atlanta clinches the #1 seed, so the Bears take it wasy at Green Bay.  When the Pack wins, the playoffs look like this:

#1.  Atalanta.  Bye
#2.  Chicago.  Bye
#3.  Philadelphia. vs Green Bay
#4.  NFC West. vs New Orleans
#5.  New Orleans. at NFC West
#6.  Green Bay. at Philadelphia.

Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2011 3:41 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Just to add one note on divisional realignment.  It won't happen any time soon and here's why I know that.  It's not just from Joe saying so, which I believe is a good enough reason.  It's because the NFL changed their logo a year or 2 ago and it's now 8 stars, as opposed to the 32 stars it was prior.  They did that for each star to represent a division, as opposed to 32 individual teams and they also changed the football in the middle to resemble the Lombardi Trophy football.  Just wanted to point this out.  The games are nearly over for the early games and Tampa Bay leads New Orleans.  That adds a tad more pressure to my Packers and Joe's Giants.  Though Atlanta is going to beat Carolina take the #1 seed and thus Chicago will be the #2 seed, Philly already had the #3 seed.  Saints will be the #5 seed.  Only thing to determine is the #4 and #6 seeds.  I can't imagine the Bears are going to just let the Packers in.  I don't see any reason Lovie Smith would want to do that.  For one, you could have to play them again if you let them in and the 1st thing Lovie said when he became Bears head coach was that he was there to beat the Packers.  Go Packers!!!!  Beat them Bears.  I don't believe it will be easy, but playing in Lambeau does seem to help.     Wink   Jeff

Since: Feb 4, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2011 1:57 pm

Potential NFC Tiebreakers

Sorry for crashing the party and bring the discussion to the original topic.  I just wanted to verify that I used the right breakers in the right places.

PHI won the East by sweeping NYG, giving it the tiebreaker if necessary.  Meanwhile, they lost to CHI, putting them 3rd and giving CHI the bye.

NO, SEA will have better division records than ATL, STL, respectively.

For homefield advantage, NO has a better conference record over CHI, while CHI has a better record in common games over ATL.

For the 6 seed, NYG has the better common games record over TB if they are the only 2 tied.  Any ties involving GB will require SoV computations.

Did I miss any ties or mess up on the applicable tiebreakers?

Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2011 1:14 pm

Flexibility of 4 Divisions THE CLASH OF TITANS

I believe with 4 divisions, we get more strong team - strong team match-ups during the regular season, which fosters the development of RIVALRIES, THE CLASH OF TITANS.

NFC North - East

Who would not like to see Green Bay play the Giants twice a year?    How about the Chicago Bears against the Giants twice a year?
Baltimore could play Washington and Philly twice a year.    Baltimore is historically an NFC City.    This is a GREAT DIVISION.   The historic NFC rivalries which have diminished are brought back.    These are games that I want to watch twice a year, and I think the fans would find these combinations of teams playing twice a year FAR BETTER than playing far-away teams once every four years.    This really is a GREAT DIVISION, winning this division MEANS SOMETHING.

NFC   South - West

Put Houston, Dallas and New Orleans together.    It is silly to have them in three divisions, rarely playing each other.    Atlanta and Carolina are both southern teams.    Houston, Dallas and New Orleans are close enough that fans can drive to rival cities to see their teams play away.

AFC  North - East

The THE CLASH OF TITANS of Pittsburgh, New England and Indy - make them play each other twice a year.     Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Cleveland are so natural it is obvious.    Cincy is close to both Indy and Tennessee and those fans would be able to travel to the away cities to see their teams play their rivals.  This is a GREAT DIVISION.

AFC South - West

This division is really good.    I want to watch these games.    The 3 Florida teams are together, which would greatly help ticket sales and fans can easily travel to rival cities for the division games within Florida, which would be six games a year.   The California aspect of this division is good too, adding four games within California per year.     These teams might have the least historical connections, however this division has massive potential.    All the citrus states are in this division.    It also preserves the AFC West in strong ways.


Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2011 12:28 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Matt mentioned that he would send us a check if we emailed him. Funny thing is, Matt posted his email address on here 2 seasons ago (in a private message). Matt, I think I still have it.

Joe, this reminds me how much i liked the "private message" feature. For those that don't know, it was removed from this blog prior to the beginning of last season. "Private messages" allowed people to exchange email addresses privately. Also, certain conversations on here seem to be more suited for "private messaging". It benefits the people in the conversation but also the people not in the conversation. Personally, I could make a few of my posts private from the 95% of people not interested in them (like my post on potential 3-way SoS ties for draft order purposes, and potentially this message itself).

Jeff, I am going to hold-off on making a hypothetical 11 division league, with no more than one Mike head coach per division - too many imninent coaching changes!

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or