Blog Entry

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 29, 2010 12:30 pm

Well, we made it through another tiebreaker season.  Thanks to all for your participation, well-thought out comments and feedback.   Atlanta losing on Monday night certainly made for an interesting group of scenarios for the #1 seed in the NFC, but Philadelphia laying an egg on Tuesday night simplified many things in the NFC.   Full scenarios are listed below.

- ATL will be #1 seed UNLESS they lose and either NO or CHI wins
- ATL will be #2 seed if they lose and NO loses and CHI wins
- ATL will be #5 seed if they lose and both NO and CHI win
- NO can only be a #1 or #5 seed and will be #1 if they win and ATL loses
- If NO not #1 seed, they will be #5 and play AT NFC West winner (STL or SEA) Wild Card weekend (Saints beat both teams this year at home)
- CHI is the #2 seed unless ATL and NO both lose and CHI wins...then CHI would be #1 seed
- PHI is the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed (either GB, NYG or TB) on Wild Card weekend
- The STL-SEA winner (or STL in case of a tie) will host ATL or NO (whichever doesn't win the South) on Wild Card weekend
- GB will know by game time if their opponent (CHI) is locked into #2 seed (CHI would need ATL and NO losses in 1pm ET games to have chance at #1 seed).
- If GB wins, they will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend as the #6 seed.
- If TB wins early, GB knows they will need to win to get into playoffs and TB will root for GB and NYG losses to get a trip to PHI.
- TB game only matters to NYG if the Giants tie WAS.
- NYG can only get in as #6 seed and would play at PHI for a third game this season against the Eagles with a WIN and GB loss
- If TB, GB and NYG all win or all lose, GB will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend based on GB winning strength of victory tiebreaker among the three teams at 10-6 or 9-7.   At 10-6, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 74 while NYG and TB would have maximums of 65 and 59 wins respectively.  At 9-7, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 63 while NYG and TB would have maximum of 61 and 49 wins respectively. 


  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division and a first-round bye.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
               New Orleans - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division and a first-round bye:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie

  Chicago clinches homefield advantage:
   1) CHI win + ATL loss + NO loss or tie

  New Orleans clinches NFC South and homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + ATL loss

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win


Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: January 1, 2011 3:12 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Yet again to Chili:

I don't know if you are aware of this, but 32 does not divide equally into 6 divisions. If the NFL were to go back to 6 divisions, then there would be unequal numbers of teams in each division, just like there were from 1970-1994. There would have to be two 6-team divisions, and those teams would have to play 10 division games, instead of 8. That means the other 2 divisions in each conference would have to play more games against each other, to make up for the 6-team division playing fewer interdivision games. Teams in the 6-team division would be either rewarded for having several bad teams in their division, or punished for having several good teams in their division. Likewise, if the two 5-team divisions were stronger than the 6-team division in a particular year, those two divisions' teams would have to play several games against each other, making it more and more likely that a "weaker" team in the 6-team division could sneak into the playoffs by playing a weaker schedule, like TB could have done this year.

I'm still not exactly sure which season or seasons you were referring to when the Colts had "3 terrible teams" in their division. (Was it 2002, when TEN was 11-5 and the #2 seed? Or maybe 2005 when JAX was 12-4, with 2 of those losses being to IND. Maybe 2006 when TEN and JAX were both 8-8, missing out on the playoffs by 1 game? Or maybe 2009 when HOU, JAX, and TEN were all in the wild card race in week 16, despite all 3 having to play the Colts twice.) Anyway, just imagine if you will, the Colts in a 6-team AFC Central division, and imagine that the other 5 teams in the division are all terrible that year. The Colts would have ten easy divisional wins, instead of 6, and they would practically be handed the #1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, the poor Patriots would have to play brutal divisional games agianst their longtime rivals like MIA, TB, and JAX, plus interdivisional games against the likes of Oak and SF. That would just be totally unfair to Mr. Brady & Co.

What I'm trying to say is, no matter what divisional setup and scheduling format the league uses, there will always be examples in any given season of teams of one division benefiting from an easier schedule than another, or one team benefiting from an easy division while another team toils in a brutally difficult division. Ask the Toronto Blue Jays how fair the 6-division setup in baseball is, with the 2 biggest spenders in the history of American sports residing in their division. It doesn't make it impossible, just look at what the Tampa Rays have done in the last 3 years, but it makes it really, really hard. Likewise, the Packers and Giants may have had a tough road to the playoffs this year, but they have certainly had their chances. If GB doesn't want to risk TB stealing their wildcard spot, then maybe they should have won their games against Washington, or Detroit, or Miami. For the Giants, maybe they shouldn't have played embarrassingly badly in home losses to TEN, DAL, and PHI, the latter of which included blowing a 21-point 4th quarter lead. 

Finally, divisional setup in any sport is not based solely on geography, or competitive balance. They are based largely on history and tradition, and in the NFL where all divisional rivals play twice a season, I believe all teams like keeping their longtime divisional rivalries intact when realignment takes place. I don't think Buffalo cares about establishing rivalries with PIT and CLE, since they have existing rivalries with NYJ, NE, and MIA, that have been around for 45-50 years. Likewise, I don't think the Dolphins care about building a rivalry with TB or JAX, since they already have those longstanding rivalries with their old AFL rivals. Lastly, I certainly hope that you get to be the one to tell Jerry Jones that the Cowboys are being pulled out of the NFC East in order to build new, exciting rivalries with their "natural geographic rivals" the Texans and Saints. That would quite possibly lead to the biggest, loudest, screaming hissy fit that the world has ever seen.

Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: January 1, 2011 10:17 am

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios


This is a blog   -   which is designed to float ideas, and talk them out

And for a few days, that is the purpose of a blog.   Its not like this has been going on for months

In addition, the tiebreakers and scenarios for the year are done.    So to go on to topis which slightly different.     We spend so much time on tiebreakers -  it is an EXCELLENT TIME to point out that for the Wildcared race, there is not a level playing field

For the Packers, they came within a hair of losing this wildcard to Tampa when they lost to Detroit.

If Tampa won that game, Tampa would have had an SoV around .315, but with 10 wins they would have the wildcard

I'm just pointing out that the present structure has the potential to be a complete trainwreck    And who is to say that New Orleans had to be as good as it is.    This year could have EASILY yielded two wildcards with easy schedules and exremely low SoVs.

Maybe going back to 6 divisions is better than the mini-divisions.   &n
bsp;  For me, I don't see the point of paying teams far-way once every 3 or 4 years.     

Buffalo and Cleveland could easily develop rivalries, and Pittsburgh too.   But with the mini-divisions, it doesn't work     All over the country, there are rivalries "left on the table."

If all three Florida teams were in the same division, it would make more sense.    And maybe more tickets would be sold.

Maybe New Orleans, Dallas and Houston should be in the same division.

Right now San Fran could go into the AFC and play San Diego and Oakland twice a year

I'm just throwing out ideas.     
; And I have "facts and logic" on my side.    We can do better. 


Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: January 1, 2011 1:02 am

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

I like the format of the NFL currently, which is how it's been since 2002.  I don't need to see it any other way.  As for it being a 16 game or 18 game schedule, then whatever the powers that be decide upon, I will still love to watch the NFL and my Packers.  None of this format stuff matters.  What matters is enjoying the game and having fun with these awesome tiebreaker scenarios each year.  Hey brettis    &nbs
p;     looks like you got company........last year you were the windbag(and I say that in a nice way dude---honestly), but chili has taken the cake this season.  I am sure he's a good guy, bet geesh, enough already about unfair this, unfair that.     
  Here's to a fun week 17 and playoffs.    &n
bsp;     &

Since: Dec 8, 2008
Posted on: December 31, 2010 10:21 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Tahnk you very much for clearing that up for me
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Since: Jan 7, 2009
Posted on: December 31, 2010 4:45 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

@ORwu007 : The NFC West winner will face the NFC South runner-up at home on wildcard weekend. As you said GB, NYG, and TB are eliminated from the #5 seed and therefore cannot play the NFC West winner until the NFC Championship Game. The #6 seed will play at Philadelphia and then at Atlanta if they win.  

Since: Dec 30, 2010
Posted on: December 31, 2010 4:16 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Here are the bottom lines(BL) for the FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios:

1.  The top three NFC Seeds could be the following:
     A) ATL, CHI, PHI
     B) NO, CHI, PHI
     C) CHI, ATL, PHI

2.  The STL/SEA Winner could be matched up with the following ways:
     A)  STL vs GB, STL vs NYG, OR STL vs TB
     B)  SEA vs GB, SEA  vs NYG, OR SEA vs TB

3.  CHI will be the NFC #1 if NO & ATL both lose b/c of common opponents record.

4.  GB, NYG, & TB are mathematically eliminated from the NFC #5 Seed (All are currently 9-6).

5.  The STL/SEA Winner will be locked as the NFC #4 Seed.

Since: Dec 30, 2010
Posted on: December 31, 2010 3:54 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

No, Bripatwe.  The sccenarios are correct.  PHI will be the NFC #3 Seed , no matter what happens this Sunday.  As for the Giants, Packers, & Tampa, they are currently 9-6.  If the Giants & Packers lose, while Tampa wins, Giants and Packers will be 9-7 & Tampa will be 10-6, based on your scenario questions.  If that happens, Tampa win be the NFC #6 due to overall record; therfore, they will face PHI in the NFC Wild Card Round.  Bottom Line, PHI is officially locked in as the NFC #3 Seed due to their loss vs MIN & STL/SEA winner mathematically eliminated from getting the NFC #3 Seed (STL: 7-8, SEA: 6-9).

Since: Dec 8, 2008
Posted on: December 31, 2010 2:48 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Is Philadelphia locked into the number 3 seed or is it still posible for another team to get seeded there?
Was thinking if the Eagles, Giants and Packers all lose this week and Tampa wins...will Tampa move to the 3rd seed or will they just get the 6th seed in the playoffs?

Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 31, 2010 2:02 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Yes, thats what I think

4 Divisions, with 8 teams each

Why?    Because mathematically, the effects of a concentration of weaks teams in a Mini-division will affect the SCHEDULES less.

And the playoff race would be better

Plus, I think the RIVALRY opportunities are far better.    &nbs
p; Try it for a few seasons, it will be far better.


Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 31, 2010 1:51 pm

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Against the demands for facts and logic, I offered two examples

The point is     One weak division is more than just that   -     the wins end up somewhere else

AND the other two divisions end up with a DISADVANTAGE in the wildcard race

The problem becomes Conference-wide   &n
bsp; And just because there are migitating factors this year, like the head-to-heads, that doesn't mean its a train-wreck

The situation could have easily slid into two wildcards from the NFC south winning by the thinnest of margins

The point is:   with the MINI-DIVISIONS, there will always be a horribly weak division which DISTORTS the wildcard race


AND the point of Indy was the STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

I think what has happened here is your teams have gotten EASY deals under this system, and you want to keep those easy deals.

Go talk to a fan from a tough division, ending up with a tough schedule year after year  -  and just missing wildcards instead of cruising to easy Division wins

With 8 MINI-DIVISIONS, Who really cares about a Division Championship?      It is so watered down.

I'd like to see pennants made for the BYE teams  --   that is the only thing that means anything.


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