Blog Entry

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 29, 2010 12:30 pm
 

Well, we made it through another tiebreaker season.  Thanks to all for your participation, well-thought out comments and feedback.   Atlanta losing on Monday night certainly made for an interesting group of scenarios for the #1 seed in the NFC, but Philadelphia laying an egg on Tuesday night simplified many things in the NFC.   Full scenarios are listed below.

NOTES:
- ATL will be #1 seed UNLESS they lose and either NO or CHI wins
- ATL will be #2 seed if they lose and NO loses and CHI wins
- ATL will be #5 seed if they lose and both NO and CHI win
- NO can only be a #1 or #5 seed and will be #1 if they win and ATL loses
- If NO not #1 seed, they will be #5 and play AT NFC West winner (STL or SEA) Wild Card weekend (Saints beat both teams this year at home)
- CHI is the #2 seed unless ATL and NO both lose and CHI wins...then CHI would be #1 seed
- PHI is the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed (either GB, NYG or TB) on Wild Card weekend
- The STL-SEA winner (or STL in case of a tie) will host ATL or NO (whichever doesn't win the South) on Wild Card weekend
- GB will know by game time if their opponent (CHI) is locked into #2 seed (CHI would need ATL and NO losses in 1pm ET games to have chance at #1 seed).
- If GB wins, they will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend as the #6 seed.
- If TB wins early, GB knows they will need to win to get into playoffs and TB will root for GB and NYG losses to get a trip to PHI.
- TB game only matters to NYG if the Giants tie WAS.
- NYG can only get in as #6 seed and would play at PHI for a third game this season against the Eagles with a WIN and GB loss
- If TB, GB and NYG all win or all lose, GB will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend based on GB winning strength of victory tiebreaker among the three teams at 10-6 or 9-7.   At 10-6, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 74 while NYG and TB would have maximums of 65 and 59 wins respectively.  At 9-7, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 63 while NYG and TB would have maximum of 61 and 49 wins respectively. 

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division and a first-round bye.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
               New Orleans - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division and a first-round bye:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches homefield advantage:
   1) CHI win + ATL loss + NO loss or tie

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South and homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + ATL loss

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

 NEW YORK GIANTS
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

 ST. LOUIS Rams
  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win

Comments

Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 31, 2010 7:40 am
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Man, I can't believe you went and did that. I thought we were just having a nice, friendly discussion about football, and you go and bring out the Chewbacca defense? That is not cool dude. Not cool at all.



Since: Nov 27, 2007
Posted on: December 31, 2010 3:16 am
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Matt,

Your post was well thought out and well written.  Don't expect it to register with him.  After all, the whole 'I don't have proof or facts to prove what I said, but it is true because I said so' defense in a reply below was brilliant.  Is what he said true about the past scheduling?  I don't know, but who could argue with logic like that?  What more proof do you need other than he said so.  I took another look at NFC South records.  Did you know that if you took away the Falcons 4 wins against the NFC West they would only be 8-3.  8-3.  That is a terrible record.  It proves conclusively that the Falcons are terrible and wouldn't be able to accomplish anything if they didn't play the West this year.  No one deserves to get in the playoffs with a winning percentage like that.  And the Saints?  They would be 8-3 as well.  They lost to an NFC West team, so you know that they are not any good.  After all, if they were any good, they would have won a Super Bowl recently.

 

And the Giants.  Is it fair that they will miss the playoffs just because they lost the head to head matchup with Green Bay?  No, it is not.  How is that fair?  They should get the six seed and get to go to Philadelphia.  If they had played Philadelphia this year they would have been able to prove that they belong in the playoffs.  Or better yet, they should have them match up twice a year.  If that would have happened the Giants would have smoked the Eagles both times.  Wait...what?  The did meet twice.  Who won? Oh.  Well, it doesn't matter.  They are clearly a better team than the Falcons or Saints.  I mean 8-3?  Defending Super Bowl champions?  That doesn't prove that the Falcons and Saints are good.  In conclusion...

 

"...ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, I have one final thing I want you to consider. Ladies and gentlemen, this is . Chewbacca is a  from the planet . But Chewbacca lives on the planet . Now think about it; that does not make sense!

Why would a Wookiee, an eight-foot tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall ? That does not make sense! But more important, you have to ask yourself: What does this have to do with this case? Nothing. Ladies and gentlemen, it has nothing to do with this case! It does not make sense! Look at me. I'm a lawyer defending a major record company, and I'm talkin' about Chewbacca! Does that make sense? Ladies and gentlemen, I am not making any sense! None of this makes sense! And so you have to remember, when you're in that jury room deliberatin' and  the , does it make sense? No! Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, it does not make sense! If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must ! The defense rests."  ---South Park, Johnnie Cochran




Since: Nov 27, 2007
Posted on: December 31, 2010 3:13 am
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Matt,

Your post was well thought out and well written.  Don't expect it to register with him.  After all, the whole 'I don't have proof or facts to prove what I said, but it is true because I said so' defense in a reply below was brilliant.  Is what he said true about the past scheduling?  I don't know, but who could argue with logic like that?  What more proof do you need other than he said so.  I took another look at NFC South records.  Did you know that if you took away the Falcons 4 wins against the NFC West they would only be 8-3.  8-3.  That is a terrible record.  It proves conclusively that the Falcons are terrible and wouldn't be able to accomplish anything if they didn't play the West this year.  No one deserves to get in the playoffs with a winning percentage like that.  And the Saints?  They would be 8-3 as well.  They lost to an NFC West team, so you know that they are not any good.  After all, if they were any good, they would have won a Super Bowl recently.

 

And the Giants.  Is it fair that they will miss the playoffs just because they lost the head to head matchup with Green Bay?  No, it is not.  How is that fair?  They should get the six seed and get to go to Philadelphia.  If they had played Philadelphia this year they would have been able to prove that they belong in the playoffs.  Or better yet, they should have them match up twice a year.  If that would have happened the Giants would have smoked the Eagles both times.  Wait...what?  The did meet twice.  Who won? Oh.  Well, it doesn't matter.  They are clearly a better team than the Falcons or Saints.  I mean 8-3?  Defending Super Bowl champions?  That doesn't prove that the Falcons and Saints are good.  In conclusion...

 

"...ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, I have one final thing I want you to consider. Ladies and gentlemen, this is . Chewbacca is a  from the planet . But Chewbacca lives on the planet . Now think about it; that does not make sense!

Why would a Wookiee, an eight-foot tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall ? That does not make sense! But more important, you have to ask yourself: What does this have to do with this case? Nothing. Ladies and gentlemen, it has nothing to do with this case! It does not make sense! Look at me. I'm a lawyer defending a major record company, and I'm talkin' about Chewbacca! Does that make sense? Ladies and gentlemen, I am not making any sense! None of this makes sense! And so you have to remember, when you're in that jury room deliberatin' and  the , does it make sense? No! Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, it does not make sense! If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must ! The defense rests."  ---South Park, Johnnie Cochran




Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 30, 2010 9:20 pm
 

The NFC West is wuing football?

Chili,

You seem bound and determined to make a point.  Your point that the weak NFC West allows the division scheduled against them to beef up their record is received.  I think we agree with that, to a point.  But I think you are forgetting the counter-point.  Tampa Bay is possibly going to finish 10-6.  The could end up in a tie with the NY Giants, the Green Bay Packers, or both.  Yet, they will lose tiebreakers to both because of their weaker schedule.  And this is a board devoted to tiebreakers, so the point of the easier schedule is counter-pointed by losing tiebreakers.

Is it likely that the playoff 6 teams in each conference are the best 6?  No, especially this year, we see that is not likely.  However, the playoffs are not intended to do that.  They are intended to take 6 teams who have a legitimate argument for being the best team in a given group to settle on the field who is the best overall.

It sounds like you are advocating a BCS-like system, where you play a bunch of games against the same teams and then have the playoffs.  The regular season in the NFL is for eliminating teams from championship contention, but it is also for entertainment, rivalries, and bragging rights.  Each team may have a bad schedule argument, catching teams with injuries, playing certain teams at home, getting teams coming off a bye, playing off a short week, and the weather.  But ultimately, everyone has a complately fair and balanced chance to make the playoffs within their division, and then a fair chance for the wildcard.  Then, the teams that make it settle it on the field.  The system isn't perfect, but it does what it sets out to do, and noone gets jobbed without having contributory blame.

Matt West



Since: Dec 30, 2010
Posted on: December 30, 2010 8:48 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Here are the FINAL Week 17 AFC Playoff Scenarios:

1.  NE can clinch the NFL Best Record Title w/a win or ATL loss.

2.  PIT can clinch the AFC North Division Title & 1st Round Bye(i.e., AFC #2 Seed) w/a win or BAL loss.  Clinches AFC #5 Seed w/a loss, BAL win, & NYJ loss.  Clinches AFC #6 Seed w/a loss, BAL win, & NYJ win.

3.  KC can clinch the AFC #3 Seed w/a win (Can also clinch #3 Seed w/a loss, IND loss, & JAC loss OR loss, IND loss, & JAC win).  Clinches AFC #4 Seed w/a loss & IND win.

4.  IND can clinch the AFC South Div. Title & AFC #4 Seed w/a win OR JAC loss.  Clinches AFC #3 Seed w/a win & KC loss.  Eliminated w/a loss & JAC win.

5.  JAC can clinch the AFC South Div. Title & AFC #4 Seed w/a win & IND loss.  Eliminated w/a loss OR IND win.

6.  BAL can clinch the AFC North Div. Title & #2 Seed w/a win & PIT loss.  Clinches AFC #5 Seed w/a loss, PIT win, & NYJ win/loss.

7.  NYJ can clinch the AFC #6 Seed w/wins by both PIT & BAL OR loss.  Clinches AFC #5 Seed w/a win, PIT loss, & BAL win.  




Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 30, 2010 6:59 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

You want to keep teams from traveling across the country every 3 or 4 years, and create more natural geographical rivalries. I assumed you were going to advocate for merging the AFC East with the NFC East, West with West, etc. But now you say merge the NFC North with the NFC East. Guess what, that would leave the NFC West to merge with the NFC South. So now TB, CAR etc. are playing cross-county rivals AZ, SF, SEA twice every season? Just imagine what the records of ATL, NO, and TB would be this season if they got to play all the NFC West teams twice. Maybe 14-2, 14-2, 12-3? Without PIT and BAL on their schedules, these 3 teams might not have lost any games outside the division. Good luck getting that plan past the Competition Committee.



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2010 5:14 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios



I remember a few times when Indy was 8-0 and they had a weak schedule


Put Indy in a division with Pittsburgh and New England and see what happens - make them play each other twice a year.


Merge the NFC North and the NFC East.    Those would be good games to watch.



I don't know what to tell you all


8 Divisions is bogus -  there is always some ridiculous thing going on.    Mergers would BURY the DOG Divisions, like a lost bone.



.





Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2010 4:33 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios






I dont have a massive study of the last 9 years of every division


However 8 divisions messes up the wildcard races.    When a tiebreaker is the difference, some teams do get hosed with horrible schedules


Every year it seems there is a DOG DIVISION     (I dont have the numbers to convince you as if it mattered to convince you)


I have been looking at the schedules and the rotations create disparities which are silly


I much prefer to have strong teams draw a more difficult schedule the following year, and weak teams to draw a weak schedule the following year

I am under the impression the League did that to a much greater extent in the past.   Prior to 2002, or even way before under earlier sets of rules.    (I have not compiled the numbers to convince you, so I offer no facts, but I do say it is true.)



The Dog Divisions are even DOGGYER than you think  -    because someone has to win the division games.  If they played other teams, the records would be worse.


The HOSING comes in because only one MINI-DIVISION gets to play the DOG DIVISION.


And every year, something BOGUS is happening in one of the eight divisions  -    saying that the other 7 are OK is not really the point.



I tell you what    Tell the NFC DOG WINNER to give their home playoff game to the Giants this year.  



Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2010 4:02 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios






I dont think your attitude is appropriate


It does matter.    The 6th seed is important.    And in the years a tiebreaker determines who gets it, one must remember that the Strength of Schedules differ wildly - especially when comparing teams from different divisions


You talk about facts and then you bring up tv ratings which are irrelevant


The 8 Divisions are not really giving us what they are supposed to


The shedules get too far off, and then there are these DOG DIVISIONS which develop


With 4 divisions, all that would be buried inside the larger divisions.






Since: Dec 28, 2009
Posted on: December 30, 2010 3:48 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios



  If the NFC West is that bad, how come more wins didn't end up in the AFC West? 





The answer is that division is bad too



_______________



13-3 is a horrible record for a division against another division.    The West is so bad, Carolina is beating them


The NFC South got a free ride this year


GB and the Giants got the bad side of the schedule


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