Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
Blog Entry

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: November 22, 2011 1:13 pm
 
Here are official scenarios we sent to the League for Week 12:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

  San Francisco clinches West Division title:

   1) SF win + SEA loss or tie

   2) SF tie + SEA loss

 

GREEN BAY Packers

  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:

   1) GB win + DAL loss or tie + ATL loss

   2) GB win + DAL loss or tie + NO loss

   3) GB win + ATL loss + NYG loss or tie


The Niners situation is fairly obvious as they need to win on overall record at this point since they can't clinch either H2H, division record, common games or conf record tiebreakers.   

As for GB, that's a little more difficult since so many teams involved have to play each other still.  NYG and DAL still have 2 games left H2H.  NO plays nearly everyone involved as they play NYG this week and still have DET and ATL on their remaining schedule.

A GB win gets Packers to 11-0 and 11-5 at worst.  If Saints or Falcons get to five losses, they cannot get in over Packers.  Neither team can use DET or CHI to get in over GB either since both of those teams would lose a tiebreaker to GB at 11-5.  At 11-5, both DET and CHI would have to win certain games to tie GB in the division at 4-2 and that would lead to GB beating both teams on common opponents.  Currently GB leads DET in common games at 9-0 vs. 6-2 and leads CHI 8-0 vs. 6-2 and GB would go to 9-0 in CHI scenario with win at DET this week.

A DAL loss or tie this week is one key as that would force DAL to beat NYG twice to stay at pace with GB and would only leave the NFC East champion and no Wild Card contenders.  If you combine the DAL loss/tie with either an ATL loss (ATL lost to GB H2H and would have inferior conf record and can't use anyone to jump GB in multi-team tiebreaker) or a NO loss (loss would require NO to beat either DET or ATL to stay at pace with GB), that gets GB a playoff spot.

Since GB plays NYG wk 13, an NYG loss/tie on its own is not as key since the Giants could beat GB H2H in tiebreaker.  However, for that NYG-GB H2H to come into play, NYG would have to sweep DAL thus eliminating the Cowboys from this tiebreaker and gives NYG the East title.  When you combine that with an ATL loss it gets GB to a point where only one of DET or CHI could be Wild Card in front of them (the other would be the division winner).

If you don't factor in potential ties (especially for NO games down the road), GB really only needs a win and either a DAL loss or NYG loss to get into the playoffs.  However, ties are possible and must be factored in to actually CLINCH a playoff spot with no room for error.   

Hope that helps...Joe  

 
   

Comments

Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: November 29, 2011 6:14 pm
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Edit on that last post with the images: I realized after I made the screencaps that I'd failed to mark the Rams as eliminated; they obviously can't win their division nor pass Chicago, Detroit, and Atlanta.



Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: November 29, 2011 6:13 pm
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Here are some spreadsheet screencaps that graphically show the state of two-team tiebreakers. Note that some tiebreakers in the final chart can be updated based on what would need to happen for those teams to finish at the same record; I'll be updating that in the next week

The images are relatively large, and I don't want to break the margins of the discussion thread, so they're linked; clicking will open the image in a new window/tab.














Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: November 29, 2011 2:46 pm
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Embarassed disincentive



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: November 29, 2011 10:00 am
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

What could happen if the NFL does decide on an 18-game schedule would be for the other two games to be scheduled based a team's finish. For example a 1st place team would play the 1st and 3rd place team in the other 2 divisions not in the rotation with one at home and one on the road. the 2nd place teams would play the 2nd and 4th place teams. This seems to make the most sense if the NFL has to adjust the scheduling for 18 games.
gw,
In the past, when  NFL had position-based pairings, they went with the 1 plays 1 and 4 and 2 plays 2 and 3, rather than the 1-3, 2-4 pairings you suggest. Although on the surface that seems unfair to 4th place teams, I suspect it was as a de-incentive to drop from 3rd to 4th at seasons end to get a weaker schedule.




Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: November 29, 2011 9:35 am
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

NFC Combined Ranks.  There are a few ties here, both in points scored and points allowed.

Team    Scored    Allowed    Score Rank    Allow Rank    Combined Rank
GBY    382    227     1     4 &nbs
p;   5
SFO    262    161     6     1  &nbs
p;  7
DAL    270    225     5 &nbs
p;   3     8
CHI    288    232     4 &nbs
p;   6    10
ATL    259    227     7     4 &nbs
p;  11
DET    316    246     3     8 &nbs
p;  11
NOR    362    252     2    10    12
WAS    183    222    15     2  &nbs
p; 17
PHI    257    251     8 &nbs
p;   9    17
SEA    185    232    14     6 &nbs
p;  20
NYG    252    277     9  &nbs
p; 13    22
ARZ    213    256    12    11    23
CAR    252    305     9    16    25
MIN    214    295    11    15    26
TBY    199    291    13    14    27
STL    140    270    16    12    28



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: November 29, 2011 9:22 am
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

JoeNFL - Good work!  The ink isn't even dry on the MNF boxscore and we already have new scenarios out!  Very interesting how ATL can leap frog GB via DET with a tie at 11-4-1.  GB is actually better served by DET ending 12-4 than 11-4-1.  When looking at the scenarios, this is always the hardest thing to catch.

I feel like a broken record, and will try not to get too caught up about this, but DET actually leads CHI in common games, even though CHI defeats DET by common games in the current standings.  I understand all the points previously made and totally agree w/ the tiebreaker language.  The NFL must cover itself in case a whole week of games is cancelled for some reason, etc.  But I think it's pretty safe to assume all teams will play 16 games this year!

Right now, CHI and DET have played GB, MIN, ATL, CAR, and TB.  CHI lost to GB, DET lost to GB and ATL.  Therefore CHI wins the tiebreaker this week.  However, the full list of scheduled common opponents is GB, MIN, ATL, CAR, NO, TB, DEN, KC, OAK, and SD.  DET is 5-2 against those teams, while CHI is 5-3.  CHI needs to lose to SEA yet still tie DET in overall record to tie DET in common games (of course, divisional games will also factor in).

My point is that if they both win out, DET wins the tiebreak against CHI by common games.  So DET controls their own destiny (against CHI) even though their listed now as out of the playoffs.




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: November 29, 2011 2:16 am
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

After further review....i'm getting rid of the GB TIE + NO loss and the GB TIE + ATL tie scenarios for GB playoff clinching.  In the NO loss scenario, ATL could still get in ahead of GB at 11-4-1 if DET ties a later game (OAK for instance)...and ATL would use DET who would beat out GB at 11-4-1 due to common opponents.  In the ATL tie scenario, if DET and NO tie this week as well that would still allow ATL to get in over GB using DET if ATL beats NO on wk 16 and wins other games.  So...here's where I am at this late hour:

Green Bay clinches North Division title:

   1) GB win + DET loss or tie

   2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie + DET loss

   3) CHI loss + DET loss

Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:

   1) GB win

   2) CHI loss

   3) ATL loss

   4) DET loss

   5) NO loss + ATL tie

   6) GB tie + CHI tie


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco clinches West Division title:

   1) SF win or tie

   2) SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie





Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: November 29, 2011 12:41 am
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

nyg...

I think you have two missing pieces.
1) DET beats GB at 11-4-1 if they both tie this week on common opponents (8-2-1 vs. 9-3).
2) When you combine that with ATL win over DET earlier this year and a NO-ATL tie on week 16, you get CHI division winner, DET at 11-4-1 ahead of GB at 11-4-1 and NO division winner at 11-3-2 (same as 12-4) and ATL at 11-4-1.


#5 seed is ATL with H2H win over DET
#6 seed is DET
GB watches playoffs from home    

Hope that helps.

Joe  



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: November 29, 2011 12:12 am
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Joe,
why is GB not in with simply a tie? they'd be 11-4-1 then with ATL having to be 12-4 to evade a tie with GB, causing NO to have to lose to them, making them 11-4 but having to play DET, so someone would at least be 11-4-1. Since GB owns all the tiebreaks it seems to me it would come down to a tie which GB would win. Or do the tiebreakers change at 11-4-1? Maybe common games record changes with NO vs. DET game result changing in this scenario? I can't check for myself right now but that seems like the only thing that could change.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: November 28, 2011 11:55 pm
 

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Packfan and others...
 
(note to packfan...in your scenarios, you can forget about NYG and DAL as NYG loss gets them to 5 losses and even with H2H victory over GB they would still have to win out to tie GB which would give DAL 2 losses and NYG the division title.  that might help your analysis) 

Here's what I have right now (still working on GB tie scenario for playoff spot):
   

Green Bay clinches North Division title:

   1) GB win + DET loss or tie

   2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie + DET loss

   3) CHI loss + DET loss

 Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:

   1) GB win

   2) CHI loss

   3) ATL loss

   4) DET loss

   5) NO loss + ATL tie

   6) GB tie + CHI tie

   7) GB tie + ATL tie

   8) GB tie + NO loss 

 

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

 San Francisco clinches West Division title:

   1) SF win or tie

   2) SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie



The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com