Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Nov 19, 2008
Posted on: December 20, 2011 11:18 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

You have the Ravens clinching a first-round bye this week with a win + Steelers loss + Texans loss. Wouldn't they also need the Pats to win or tie this weekend for that to be true?

According to my calculations, if all of that happens the Ravens clinch the North, the Texans finish no better than 11-5, and the Pats finish no worse than 11-4-1. Baltimore would then hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston,

But if all of that happens and the Pats get upset by Miami, then if the Ravens and Pats lose and Houston wins Week 17, then you have the Pats, Ravens and Texans as division winners at 11-5.

Houston would get the #1 seed due to conference record (Texans 9-3, Ravens and Pats 8-4). Ravens and Pats would each be 4-1 against common opponents. Strength of victory, according to my calculations - the Ravens can't clinch that in Week 16. Am I wrong?



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 13, 2011 12:29 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

True, I should have added a NYJ win to the SD elimination scenario.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 13, 2011 12:33 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Has anyone ever witnessed a team with the same SOV and SOS (both 77-93 0.446) like GB has now?
The Bills lost to the Bengals in week 1, then defeated the Raiders in week 2.
The Broncos lost to the Raiders in week 1, then defeated the Bengels in week2.
That's not only one, but four teams having the same SoV and SoS (both 1-1, 0.500) after week 2.

But you're right. That late in the season, it is highly unlikely for a beaten team to have the same SoV and SoS. Because therefore it is necessary, that the teams they have beaten have the same combined overall record as the teams they lost to.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 13, 2011 12:21 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

NE has not yet clinched the SOV with HOU (NE is ahead). Doubt that NE can clinch this week.

Current standings:
NE 54 wins, HOU 52 wins.

Winning out adds:
NE 17 wins, HOU 11 wins.

New total:
NE 71 wins, HOU 63 wins.

NE are guaranteed at least another 9 wins:
BUF/MIA
PHI/NYJ
BUF/DEN
DAL/PHI
MIA/NYJ (counting twice, as NE beat both twice in this scenario)
PHI/WAS
DEN/KC
OAK/SD
That's at least 80 wins for NE

HOU's 13 opponents could wins at best 39 games if the all wins out, but some deductions are necessary:
ATL/JAX
IND/TEN (counting twice, as HOU beat both twice in this scenario)
IND/HOU (counting twice, as HOU beat both twice in this scenario)
CAR/TB
TEN/JAX (counting twice, as HOU beat both twice in this scenario)
CLE/PIT
ATL/TB
JAX/IND (counting twice, as HOU beat both twice in this scenario)
CAR/HOU
TEN/HOU (counting twice, as HOU beat both twice in this scenario)
MIA/NE (if NE wins out, MIA loses this one)
BUF/MIA (if MIA wins, NE gets a second win credited to their SoV. if BUF wins, NE get a credit too.)
That's 17 deductions, so HOU can gain at best another 22 wins, totalling 85 wins.

So 13-3 NE secures SoV over 13-3 HOU, if six out of the following twelve week 15 events go into their SoV direction:
ATL defeat JAX
DAL defeat TB (counting twice, as DAL win adds up to NE's SoV and costs HOU one win)
KC defeat GB
IND defeat TEN
WAS defeat NYG
STL defeat CIN
OAK defeat DET
ARI defeat CLE
NYJ defeat PHI
SD defeat BAL
SF defeat PIT

The last two events would have the effect, that NE would not only be in control of #2 seed, but of #1 seed as well.




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 12, 2011 11:52 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

fjordofpinky:

You can now add SEA to the quick elimination scenarios.  SEA is out w/ a loss + DET win or ATL win. SEA already lost to ATL and the loss would be at CHI.



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 12, 2011 11:34 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

****I mean not winning every game



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 12, 2011 11:28 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Has anyone ever witnessed a team with the same SOV and SOS (both 77-93 0.446) like GB has now?



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 11:16 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

At 6-7, SD can still get to 9-7 and win the WC. A DEN win doesn't eliminate them altogether.

Also, for ARI, all of those scenarios don't have to happen because 1 team can beat ARI and they could still win the 6 seed.
If ARI wins out, and DET loses to GB and one other game, and ATL loses to NO and TB, and CHI loses 2 games, ARI is in. If the NFC east loser has 8 losses, and 2 of the aforementioned circumstances happens, ARI is in. Also, SEA doesn't have to lose to SF because ARI finishes the season against SEA, so for ARI to win out they must hand SEA their 8th loss.
There may still be other scenarios, but that's what I see at the moment. 



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 12, 2011 10:15 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I forgot to mention that if SD wins out, DEN beats NE and loses out, DEN would beat SD on common opponents.



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 12, 2011 10:09 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

QUICKIE ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:

KC is out with a loss OR a DEN win (they're already locked out of a WC berth, meaning the only way in for them is through winning the West)

SD is out with a a DEN win (At 9-7, DEN would win any tiebreakers with SD on conference record if they finish tied)

PHI is out with a loss (The East champ is guaranteed at least 7.5 wins)

ARI is out with a loss AND wins by DET and ATL (DET and ATL winning alone aren't enough to knock out ARI because at 9-7, ARI would beat both ATL and DET on conference record [assuming CHI doesn't factor into the mix])



For the poster who said ARI can make the playoffs, they'd need the following to happen:

1) ARI wins out
2) ATL and DET win this week and lose out
3) NYG wins the East
4) DAL losing one more game [not necessarily the NYG game]
5) CHI losing 2 out of their last 3
6) SEA losing to SF

If this happens, ARI, ATL, DAL and DET finish 9-7.  ATL and DET drop out on conference record, and ARI beats DAL on H2H.  SEA and CHI would be 8-8.



Anything I missed?


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