Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 8, 2011 4:20 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

@gwsmith01

I agree with your analysis of playoffstatus.com.  I did look into it lisiting BUF eliminated w/ BUF loss + CIN win.  I think this is legit, as BUF has a h2h loss to CIN AND an inferior conf record.

CIN can cause a bunch of headaches for teams with a win.  That gives them at least 8-8 and 7-5 conf record.  KC (with a loss) can't match that, but could still win AFCW at 8-8, even with DEN, OAK, & SD victories this week.  SD also can't match CIN, but isn't so rosy to win the division at 8-8 (as you mention).  But I didn't analyze it thoroughly, so I don't want to commit to any statements yet.

The Arizona scenario @noob introduced looks interesting, might check that out too.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 8, 2011 3:50 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

To add to my previous post regarding SD's elimination, SD can be eliminated from any wild card spot with a loss + CIN win + a win by any one of DEN, OAK, KC.  However, I can't eliminate SD from the AFC West division title..  Even if you look at playoff stats.com, that site doesn't eliminate SD from the #4 seed either.  Hope this clarifies this.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 8, 2011 3:11 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Vito, Jeff, & others:

 I'm aware of the site playoffstatus.com.  It's a good reference point, but it's not official.  It seems to hit on the obvious scenarios, but it doesn't consider ties, so it's not official.  Another possible weakness I see for that site is that it appears to be suspect when it comes down to a SoV tiebreaker.  I realized that when we were all going through the clinching scenarios for PIT.  

The Scenario PIT win + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss  they have correct, but as we now know, the other scenarios require losses by OAK and DEN.  OAK could potentially win the AFC West at 10-6, in which SoV comes into play with PIT, TEN, and DEN .

The site seems to hit all the elimination scenarios for CLE, MIA, BUF, CAR, and TB.  The site has elimination scenarios for SD, but I see potential SoV scenarios where SD could win the AFC West at 8-8 and possibly conference record tiebreakers.  I'll work on the SD scenarios, and if I see a way for an SD elimination, I'll post it for all to review and scrutinize.

By the way, I'm 90% certain that CLE gets eliminated tonight.   



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 8, 2011 2:22 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I think, I overlooked the possibilty, that ATL and DET can both end up in three-way tiebreaker with ARI. Then there are no 4 common games. So it goes down to SoV. My guess is that this one is not yet decided.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 8, 2011 2:06 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I don't see any scenarios where Seattle and Arizona can be eliminated this week.  Can anyone come up with any such scenario?
Not for SEA imho. If they lose, they can still get to 8-8 overall and 7-5 in the conference. DAL, ATL, CHI, and DET all can secure at last 8-8 overall with a win the week, but they all would be 6-6 in the conference then. So only thing would be SEA swept H2H for both #5 seed and for #6 seed. That may be possible after week 17 if they end up in a three way tie with DAL and ATL, as they lost those two games. But as of today there is no scenario that locks in both, DAL and ATL, in 2nd place in their divisions. So no elimination scenario for SEA this week.

For ARI there is one imho. The obvious outcomes are an ARI loss, combined with an ATL win, a CHI win, a DET win. ARI then can still get to 8-8 overall and 6-6 in the conference. As mentionale above, ATL, CHI, and DET, all with a win will secure at least 8-8 overall and 6-6 in the confernce. As ATL played none of those three, there is no H2H sweep. So it will go down to common games.

ARI (common games with ATL are MIN, PHI, CAR, SEA) is currently 1-3. ATL is 4-0. So tiebreaker already lost.
ARI (common games with CHI are MIN, PHI, CAR, SEA) is currently 1-3. CHI is 3-0. So tiebreaker already lost.
ARI (common games with DET are MIN, DAL, CAR, SF) is currently 1-3. DET is 3-1. So tiebreaker already lost.

As either CHI or DET will finish on NFC North #2, ARI would be eliminated from #5 seed.
So now we have to make sure, ATL finishes at least #2 in NFC South. That one is granted with a TB loss and is necessary as ARI has not yet lost the common games tiebreaker to TB. Common games are MIN, DAL, CAR, SF, with TB being 1-2 now and ARI 1-3.

So ARI are eliminated by: ARI loss + ATL win + CHI win + DET win + TB loss.







Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 8, 2011 1:54 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Some thoughts about the elimination scenarios:

CAR is also out with a tie + CHI win/tie, or tie + DET win/tie.  A tie guarantees ATL finishing ahead of CAR.

I don't see why PHI or WAS need a DAL win this week for elimination.  With DAL and NYG playing 2x, NFCE champ will have at least 8 wins.  [As an aside, either PHI or WAS can still win the division at 8-8!]

I also don't believe MIA is eliminated with a loss + OAK win.  This falls under Eric K's alternate scenario where OAK is div champ and MIA wins a tiebreak @ 7-9 between MIA - CIN - JAX - SD.  Perhaps, though, MIA loss + OAK win + JAX loss works, and maybe even MIA loss + OAK win + SD loss.

PlayoffStatus.com is listing no elimination options for SEA, ARZ, or KC.  They do have some for BUF (as you describe BUF loss + NYJ win) and 1 alternate scenario.  There's also some for SD.  But I've found that those need to be independently verified as PlayoffStatus.com does not take ties into account.




Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 8, 2011 11:45 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Check out Eric K's post in the Week 13 thread.  Also discusses the MIA situation in great detail.  Eric, perhaps post that here too?

And yes, Joe, you have proved to be astute in more than just tiebreakers!

- "Vito"



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 8, 2011 11:15 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

WOW. Posts like that last one by Joe remind me why I visit this blog. That certainly demonstrates why Joe is the expert and people like me just watch. Impressive work.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 8, 2011 5:54 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Hey Jeff....

Haven't looked at full eliminations yet...but have glanced at MIAMI.  You have this: 
Miami is out with a loss to Philly and a win by either the Jets/Bengals/Titans/Raiders/Broncos


I have MIAMI out even with a WIN if CIN wins.  CIN win over HOU gives them 8-8 record at worst (best MIA can do) and a 7th Conf win and best MIA can do is 6-6 and MIA doesn't have H2H match with CIN and MIA can't use CLE to jump CIN at 8-8 as the Bengals swept the Browns.

If MIAMI loses, the NYJ and TEN wins make sense....each obviously eliminating MIA on overall record.  BUT...I don't think they need those as I think a MIAMI loss may be enough to eliminate the Dolphins (pardon my stream of consciousness here as I explore this).  In any scenario with MIA losing and having a 7-9 record at best (6-6 in conf), they would need NYJ, CIN, TEN and one of OAK or DEN to lose out (or KC or SD can win the West and both OAK and DEN lose out).  They can beat NYJ on division record and can beat TEN on conf record and beat OAK H2H, but they can't beat CIN in any 2 team tie as they lose on common opponents (3-2 vs. 2-3).  So MIA needs another team to get to 7-9 and 6-6 in conference to take the tie with CIN to Strength of Victory as a method to stay alive.

If matched up in 4-team tie with MIA-CIN-TEN-OAK, TEN and OAK would drop out on conf record and it would be MIA vs. CIN and CIN wins on common opponents.  If it's MIA-CIN-TEN-DEN, H2H doesn't apply...TEN drops out on conf record...and it goes to MIA-CIN-DEN and DEN wins that on H2H sweep of MIA and CIN.  CLE can't jump in the mix because if they get to 7-9 and tie CIN, they lose to CIN on the sweep.  If JAC wins out and gets to 7-9, they CAN get in the mix as they would have swept TEN...but JAC didn't play MIA and they would drop out of any ties on conf record (best of 5-7).

In the West, KC CAN get in the mix and get to 7-9, but they could only get to 5-7 in conference at a 7-9 overall record and even though they lost H2H to MIA, they wouldn't be able to help the Dolphins as they would drop out of multiple team tiebreakers due to conf record.   So...if we end up with MIA-CIN-TEN-KC, TEN and KC would drop out on conf record and we're back to MIA vs CIN and CIN winning on common opponents.

So we're left with SD as final shot.  SD CAN get in the mix and get to 7-9 overall and 6-6 in the conference, 3-3 in division (e.g. beat BUF and OAK and lose to BAL and DET).  Oh...and SD beat MIA H2H but didn't play CIN.  For SD to be the top Wild Card contender in the West at 7-9, if OAK loses out (SD could beat OAK on div record) that would mean a KC win and we already know KC has to beat NYJ this week which gives the Chiefs at least 2 wins and gets them to 7-9 at worst (and 3-3 in division which ties SD) and keep in mind they play DEN wk 17.  That's not good for SD as KC would have a sweep over OAK in this scenario and that would vault KC over SD in H2H tiebreakers.  So let's look at OAK NOT losing out and winning the division...that would mean DEN would need to lose out including losses to KC and BUF.  The KC win over DEN in this scenario combined with KC win over NYJ this week gets them to 7 wins...but in this case the Chiefs would split H2H with SD and DEN.  So in 3-way tie with DEN, SD and KC at 7-9 and 3-3 in division (assuming one SD win is @OAK)...the H2H is all even as they each would have split. Division record is same, so we go to common opponents and all three teams would be 4-6 in common games in this scenario.  We then go to conf record and KC would drop out and we go back to the start with DEN-SD.  They split H2H, division is same, common opponents is 5-7 for DEN and would be 5-7 for SD with wins over BUF and OAK and loss to DET (is SD beats BAL instead of BUF for conf win, they would lose this common opponents scenario to DEN).  So then we go to Strength of Victory for DEN and SD.  Right now...DEN has lead at .440 (37 wins for defeated opponents) to SD's .350 (21 wins).  Adding wins over BUF and OAK will get them about even with DEN so SOV is still up in the air.

Assuming SD wins that SOV...we head BACK to the MIA tiebreaker and have MIA-CIN-TEN-SD tie.  H2H doesn't apply.  TEN drops out on conf record...and we're back to MIA-CIN-SD.  Again...even though SD beat MIA H2H, it doesn't apply here as CIN didn't play either team.  So we go to conf record which is tied and then to common opponents (which there are not enough).  SO...FINALLY...we get to SOV and MIA is leading .438 (21 wins) to SD's .350 (21 wins) and CIN's .333 (28 wins).  MIA is picking up wins against NYJ, NE and BUF adding at least 19 wins to their defeated opponents (total of at least 40).  CIN isn't picking up any new defeated opponents as they are losing out and SD is picking up BUF and OAK giving them at least 15 more wins for defeated opponents (total of at least 36).  So it appears that MIAMI could win this SOV tiebreaker.

If this is indeed the only scenario keeping MIA alive with a loss this week, we can get rid of it with either a SD loss to BUF or a DEN win over CHI which we can add to the obvious NYJ win, TEN win and the CIN win (which also applies if MIA wins).

Yikes...i know i missed stuff in here probably....and again apologize for the rambling...but figured i'd try to figure this out and write at the same time (usually a mistake).


Let me know if this makes sense.    



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 8, 2011 1:53 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Some simple ways for some teams to be eliminated this week:

Carolina is out with a loss to Atlanta or wins by Chicago and Detroit.

Tampa Bay is out with a loss and wins or ties by 2 of the following: Chicago/Detroit/Atlanta.

Philly and Washington are both out with losses and a win by Dallas(over the Giants) and wins or ties by 2 of the following: Chicago/Detroit/Atlanta.

I don't see any scenarios where Seattle and Arizona can be eliminated this week.  Can anyone come up with any such scenario?

Cleveland is out with a loss to Pittsburgh tomorrow night.  A prior poster pointed out earlier that means Cleveland would clinch 4th place in their division with any loss and that's because if they win out after that(to go to 7-9) and Cincy loses out(to finish 7-9 too), Cincy keeps 3rd place in the division due to H2H sweep of the Browns.

Miami is out with a loss to Philly and a win by either the Jets/Bengals/Titans/Raiders/Broncos



Buffalo will not be able to win their division if they lose to San Diego and appears they are out of playoff contention with a loss and a Jet win over Kansas City.  They'd lose a single tiebreaker vs. the Jets(H2H sweep) and would be the odd team out in a 3 way tie at 8-8 vs. the Jets and Dolphins.

The Chargers and Chiefs probably have some elimination scenarios this week, but not any simple ways.  Matter in fact, I believe someone posted some of these scenarios in the Playoff Race postings and if they could do here too, it would be great.

Now some teams that can clinch positions in their respective divisions:

The Rams clinch 4th place in the NFC West with a loss and wins or ties by both Seattle and Arizona.

The Colts clinch 4th place in the AFC South with a loss and a win or tie by Jacksonville.

The Browns clinch 4th in the AFC North with a loss(as mentioned above) or even with a win and a Bengal win too. 






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