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Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 8, 2011 1:00 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I guess Vito has already done the HOU/NE SOV, and its still not NE clinched.
maybe this weekend?



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 8, 2011 12:51 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios


gw,
If NE has clinched SOV over HOU, then NE too controls #2. I'll do that analysis tomorrow if someone doesn't have it already.

At 13-3 3-way, the only possible results are:

NE - BAL - HOU (if NE somehow manages to catch BAL in SOV) or
BAL - NE - HOU (if BAL clinces SOV over NE and HOU, and if NE has clinches SOV over HOU; they would tie on conf and common games) or
BAL - HOU - NE (if HOU can catch NE on  SOV).

So, the same analysis that got us to BAL controlling #2 (and soon #1), probably has NE now or soon controlling #2.

see you in the morning.




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 7, 2011 8:04 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I'll try doing the chart as to what teams control which seeds here

I was about to post last night what Joe pointed out about wherw BAL, at 13-3 would clinch any 2-way tiebreaker over NE and HOU.  I'll trust all the analysys on this 3-way 13-3 tiebreaker for BAL, HOU, and NE.  Since BAL is guaranteed at worst the #2 seed, I'll say BAL controls the #2 seed in the AFC while both NE and HOU control the #3 seed.  I know BAL has a huge edge in SoV, but for now, I can't give any team control of the #1 seed in the AFC.  It does look like BAL can clinch that SoV this weekend

In the AFC West, DEN has the division tiebreaker over OAK at 11-5 due to better AFC record.  OAK doesn't control it's destiny at this time.  CN holds all 11-5 tiebreakers over NYJ, OAK, and TEN

Below are the seeds which AFC team can obtain and have control of.  An * indicates a team controls that seed.

BAL: 1, *2, 3, 4, 5, 6, E
NEP: 1, 2, *3, 4, 5, 6, E
HOU: 1, 2, *3, 4, 5, 6, E
DEN: 1, 2, ,3 *4, 5, 6, E
PIT: 1, 2, 3, 4, *5, 6, E
CIN: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, *6, E 

Now for the NFC, you need to look at the end of the season, not the current rankings.  For example, at 11-5, DET would win the tiebreaker over CHI at 11-5 based on common opponents.  Although CHI beat ATL h2h, ATL can use DET to jump CHI, since ATL beat DET h2h. For the moment, CHI can't control it's destiny

Both DAL and NYG have control of the NFC East division, where they still have to play each other twice.  Now for the NFC:

GB: *1, 2, 3
SF: 1, *2, 3, 4
NO: 1, 2, *3, 4, 5, 6 ,E
DAL: 2, 3, *4, 5, 6, E
NYG: 3, *4, 5, 6, E
ATL: 2, 3, 4, *5, 6, E
DET: 5, *6,  E 

This it what I have so far. 



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 7, 2011 3:14 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Green Bay clinches a first-round bye with a win OR tie + NO loss or tie OR NO loss.  The Packers (12-0) will try to join the following teams who clinched a first-round bye in the week of their 13th game (since we went to the 12-team playoff format in 1990)*:

Year / Team / Record after Wk 14 / Final reg. season record / Playoff result

1997 San Francisco....11-2.....13-3.....Lost

NFC Championship

1998 Minnesota.........12-1.....15-1....

.Lost NFC Championship

2004 Philadelphia......12-1.....13-3....

.Lost Super Bowl XXXIX

2006 Chicago............11-2.....13-3...

..Lost Super Bowl XLI

2007 New England......13-0.....16-0.....Lost

Super Bowl XLII

2008 Tennessee........12-1.....13-3.....

Lost AFC Divisional Playoff

2009 New Orleans......13-0.....13-3.....Won Super Bowl XLIV

* Note:  There have been other clubs that clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs on the weekend of their 13th game.  The list above includes those clubs who had secured only the #2 seed, and thus earning a first-round bye, with three weeks to remaining in a season.

By the way guys, it was announced earlier today that there are no changes to the original Week 15 schedule.  BAL at SD remains on SNF. 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 7, 2011 12:59 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I'll certainly defer to your in depth analysis on this one. I use the term "result" as it takes care of wins or losses.

In any event, IF BAL HOU and NE all win this week, a repeated analysis will no doubt yield taht neither NE nor HOU can win the 3-way SOV with BAL at 13-3
The KC-JETS game doesn't change anything, as you noted.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 7, 2011 11:06 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

agn - I also ran through the numbers and got similar results.  I've calculated the min/max range for opponents win totals, assuming BAL - NE - HOU tie at 13-3.

  • BAL: min 93 max 110
  • NE: min 79 max 96
  • HOU: min 72 max 87

So I agree that HOU cannot win this SOV.  I have BAL needing 3, you report 2.  Close enough for me!  I think these are the games in play this weekend:

  • PHI vs. MIA
  • CHI vs. DEN
  • OAK vs. GB
  • SD vs. BUF
  • NYG vs. DAL
  • STL vs. SEA

If CHI, GB, or NYG win, that drops NE max #.  A STL win increases BAL min #.

A PHI win drops NE max #, as NE @ 13-3 includes defeating MIA 2x.  Note that NE min of 79 already assumes a PHI victory.

A SD win increases BAL min #.  NE will have 1 win against SD & BUF, so this game is already included in their total of 79.

KC-NYJ:  NE has defeated KC 1x and NYJ 2x.  BAL has defeated NYJ.  NE gets 1 win from this game guaranteed, which is included in their total of 79.  So if KC wins, NE max # drops by 1.  But if NYJ win, BAL min # increases by 1.  If they tie, NE max # drops by .5 and BAL min # increases by .5.  No matter what, BAL gains 1.  Maybe this is why agn is reporting BAL needing 2 results.

So to summarize, BAL needs 2 of the following to tie and 3 to clinch SOV over NE.

  • MIA loss, DEN loss, OAK loss, BUF loss, DAL loss, SEA loss





Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 7, 2011 10:01 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I canaalso confirm that BAL has definitely won the SOV over HOU right now.

I have BAL + 19 in SOV compared to HOUS with HOUS able to get 23 more results. Howevwer BAL is assure of at least 6 results that will add to their total (I stopped counting), so their is no way HOU can catch BAL.

So according to my prelim results BAL is at most 2 results away from clinching the 13-3  3-way SOV with NE and HOU. Since they already control the 13-3 2-way ties with either NE and HOU, we can conclude that 4 WINS plus any 1 or 2 of about 40 other results will give them HFA regardless of what NE and HOU do.

They can't clincthis thusday night, as the PIT-CLEV neither helps not hurts BAL for the SOV, but certainly by sunday they wil lclinch this.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 7, 2011 9:36 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

From my cursory analysis of the SOV between BAL and NE, I come up with BAL 2 results shy of clinching SOV against NE at this point.

I have BAL +12  over NE at this point on the win total of their victories, with NE able to add at most 23 wins, while BAL at least able to add 9 wins. So that leaves then 2 results short on SOV over NE, which could be made up with just one game going the "right" way for them.

If someone wnats to do the SOV between BAL and HOUS, we can get a better idea how close BAL is to controlling the 3-way SOV between BAL-NE-HOU.




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 7, 2011 6:29 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

gw,

So as Joe just pointed out, since  BAL has not officially clinched SOV in a 3-way with NE and HOU, by virtue of the fact they win both 2-ways, they are in control of #2. Only when they clinch SOV (assuming NE and HOU also keep winning out), they will have control of #1. But they do have #2 in their control right now.




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 7, 2011 12:52 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

gw...

In scenario where BAL gets to 13-3....they are all but assured of #1 seed due to big advantage in SOV and NE and HOU won't make up much ground with the teams they would beat going forward.  I haven't worked it all the way through, but seems very unlikely they wouldn't win SOV.  Also...if one of the other two don't make it to 13-3, BAL has advantage over HOU (H2H) and NE (common games 5-0 to 4-1).


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