Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 7, 2011 12:07 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

giants26:

PIT win + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss gives PIT no worse than a #6 seed.  When you add DEN and OAK, if both tie at 10-6, DEN gets the AFC West based on common games.  A CIN loss guarantees PIT finishes ahead of CIN within the division.  Below are the best case scenarios for the other teams finishing at 10-6. 

PIT (AFC 8-4)
TEN (AFC 8-4)
OAK (AFC 7-5)
NYJ (AFC 6-6)

OAK and NYJ are eliminated due to AFC record.  PIT gets at least the #5 seed due to PIT's h2h over TEN

PIT doesn't actually clinch the #5 seed, PIT can be no worse than the #5 seed if PIT finishes at 10-6.  PIT can still win the AFC North, but must finish ahead of BAL in overall record to do so.



Since: Dec 2, 2010
Posted on: December 6, 2011 11:30 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Pittsburgh. Would they clinch 5th seed with this?
WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 6, 2011 9:56 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

gw,
Yup, it was Lensova.

In your 3-way SOV for #1, it is possible for a team to control #2, IF, say, you assume three scenarios (each team clinching the SOV), then you are left with 2-way with each pair, If say, NE could win SOV, or would win either 2-way with BAL or HOU for 2nd place (on H2H or common games), then NE would be said to control #2.
I haven't checked the outcomes in this particular 3-way, but just saying that a 3-way tie at SOV does not necesarily mean that one team isn't assure of at least 2nd place.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 6, 2011 9:48 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

marcantonio,

Brett has a common game spreadsheet. look on the Week 13 blog for the url.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 6, 2011 9:33 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I'm pretty sure it was Lensova that did the breakdown as to which teams control a particular seed.  

Now I do have a question / comment on which AFC team conreols the #1 seed at this moment.  If NE, BAL, and HOU all finish 13-3,h2h is not applicable, all three tie at AFC record, not enough games for common opponents, so it comes down to SoV to determine the #1 seed.  So for the moment, can we say that no AFC team has control of the #1 seed?  In this case, I think the highest seed any of the teams control is the #3 seed. since the SoV tiebreaker hasn't been clinched.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 6, 2011 8:43 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Vito...(somehow I don't think Vito Cannoli is your real name...but i could be wrong)

The NFL has not traditionally listed individual seeds when locked...but I do work with them and CBS Sports by providing a breakdown/grid of all the various scenarios for all six seeds for each conference based on game results heading into Week 17.

We typically go through those locked seeds as well in this blog and I will certainly point those out in blog as we get there.  We do point out the #1 seed in the "homefield advantage throughout the playoffs" category and the #2 seed is a team without the homefield throughout moniker but has a "first round playoff bye".   The League does point out in press releases if a team has locked (e.g. - "NEW ORLEANS has locked up the #3 seed in the NFC and will host a playoff game against the #6 seed on Wild Card Weekend").

By the way...where is Lensova?  Anyone want to put out a Missing Persons report or APB?   Is it him or someone else who does the "teams that control their own destiny" for various seeds?  That always provides some interesting back and forth here.   

Joe



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 6, 2011 4:53 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Isanyone doing thAT "cOMMon opponents chart" this year?



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 6, 2011 4:53 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Isanyone doing thAT "cOMMon opponents chart" this year?



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 6, 2011 4:51 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Where is lensova!??



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 6, 2011 4:35 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

For those of you who also care about seeding, I have determined the following scenarios (nothing earth-shattering here):

San Francisco
Can clinch #3 seed with:
  1. Win + DAL tie/loss
  2. Tie + DAL loss

New Orleans
Can clinch #5 seed with:
  1. Win + CHI loss + DET loss

Joe / NFLRules / others... can you explain why the official NFL scenarios do not break down each given seed?  Perhaps it was deemed too much work?  At this early juncture, it's not a big deal, but by Week 16/17 many fans like to know what the playoff match-ups will be, and it can be helpful to know if a team is locked into a #3 or #5 seed.



The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com