Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 6, 2011 3:56 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

...we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.  We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night)...


So with 4 weeks to play, we now have 28 teams still in playoff contention.  That's the most teams still alive at this point since the 2007 season.  (There were 30 teams still alive after Week 13 in 2007).

...we decided for consistency sake to list GB's scenarios in our typical WIN, TIE, LOSS order....


This is true.  I went back several years (stopped at 2001), and with relatively few exceptions, the League has always listed a team's official clinching scenarios in the win/tie/loss order.  As for the "GB TIE + CHI TIE" or "GB TIE + CHI loss/tie" scenario last week, the same is true this week in which a NO loss clinches a first-round bye for GB.  So that there would be no confusion among media and fans, instead of listing it simply as GB tie + NO tie, it is listed as "GB tie + NO loss or tie."  This same format has also been used for many years:

Green Bay clinches a first-round berth with:

 1) GB win OR
 2) GB tie + NO loss or tie OR
 3) NO loss

Joe, excellent work on the Week 14 scenarios.  As our friend Vito mentioned in the Week 13 thread, you are indeed the tiebreaker maestro!



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:50 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Joe, That makes sense, but leads me to ask: why is the typical format set at win-tie-loss? I would think having ties at the bottom would be more practical when it comes to viewin the likely scenarios and it also reduces confusion/redundancy. Just curious as to how it became that way, and since I know you've done this for a long time, I figure you might know.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:45 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Ravens cannot clinch this week due to 2 factors (assume Ravens win vs. Indy and lose out):
  • Conference record (7-5 while many other teams are 8-4)
  • h2h loss to TEN

Pittsburgh on the other hand does not have these issues... they'd have an 8-4 conf record.  And their h2h losses (BAL, HOU) come against division leaders.

Really, this is all due to scheduling.  BAL has played all it's NFC games, so losing out hurts its conf record.  PIT has only played 2 NFC games, so they have already built up their conf record.

Just keep in mind, the order of clinching is not important, the final seed is!




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 6, 2011 12:29 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Database....hope you're well.  

Nyg did a good job explaining GB's situation for week 13 with a tie.

As for the wording on the scenarios, I included "GB TIE + CHI loss/tie" because of where we decided to order the scenario.  I originally had it at the end after GB WIN and GB LOSS scenarios....and the GB TIE + CHI TIE would have made sense there since I already listed CHI LOSS as a way for GB to clinch.   HOWEVER, after chatting with NFL, we decided for consistency sake to list GB's scenarios in our typical WIN, TIE, LOSS order.  So, when we listed the GB TIE + CHI LOSS/TIE...it was so that no one would be confused what would happen in the case of a GB TIE and CHI LOSS.   



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 6, 2011 12:00 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

What happens if every team ties the rest of their games? Noodle on that.

AFC:
- BAL would win the division over PIT on H2H.
- DEN would win the division over OAK on division record.
- #1 NE on SoV over HOU
- #2 BAL on H2H over HOU.
- #3 HOU
- #4 DEN
- #5 PIT
- #6 CIN, on conference record over OAK and NYJ.

NFC:
- DET would win the #2 rank in the division over CHI on conference record
- #1 GB
- #2 SF
- #3 NO
- #4 DAL
- #5 ATL on H2H over DET
- #6 DET

So now, whose turn is it to be struck be a lighting? :lolL
 



Since: Oct 25, 2006
Posted on: December 6, 2011 11:59 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Here's a quick thought on GB.  If both GB and SF both win their next two games, GB will still have not clinched the #1 seed, as SF could still tie GB for overall record (14-2) and beat GB on conference record (11-1 to 10-2, since GB plays two NFC games at the end of the year).  So if SF keeps winning, the earliest GB can clinch homefield advantage would be week 16.  Obviously GB is hoping for at least one SF loss over the next two weeks (with PIT being the tougher of the two matchups for SF) to make it a little easier!



Since: Dec 6, 2011
Posted on: December 6, 2011 11:13 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Actually, forget my last comment regarding BAL being the same fate as PIT, since BAL's fate in a wild card tie is murkier than PIT's based on the potential tiebreakers with TEN and OAK should they continue to win and BAL loses in the next few weeks.



Since: Dec 6, 2011
Posted on: December 6, 2011 10:30 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

But if BAL wins and CIN loses this week, BAL would have a sure tiebreaker advantage over CIN in the even the 2 are tied at the end of the season. Even if BAL loses remaining 3 games and CIN wins remaining 3 games, they would both be 10-6. Head to head would be split, but BAL would win based on better divisional record (4-2) than CIN (3-3). As to how BAL would then fare against the other potential wild card teams, wouldn't it then be the same as PIT? If PIT gets into the playoffs this week through one of the given scenarios, and BAL wins, and then both BAL and PIT both lose their 3 remaining games, BAL would own the head to head tiebreaker among the three teams, right? With BAL going 3-1 against PIT/CIN, PIT going 2-2 vs. BAL/CIN, and CIN going 1-3 vs. BAL/PIT.



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 6, 2011 9:39 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Lol a better question would be what are the odds of every team tying every game? I think there are better odds of being struck by lightning twice in a day!



Since: Jan 19, 2007
Posted on: December 6, 2011 9:06 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

What happens if every team ties the rest of their games? Noodle on that.


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