Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 6, 2011 7:50 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Thanks nygsb42, I overlooked the DET - GB tie at Division Record possibility.  Everything follows from there.  Thanks. 



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 6, 2011 7:37 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Database, If GB had tied NYG, and nothing else was given, here's what couldve eliminated GB. GB loses out, thus losing to CHI and DET and finishing 4-2 division, 11-4-1 overall. DET ties NO and wins out, finishing at 11-4-1, 4-2 division as well (they split CHI, would then split GB, and sweep MIN) CHI wins out to 12-4 and wins the north NO ties DET and ATL so NO is 11-3-2 and wins south, and ATL is 11-4-1 Then, on common games GB is 6-0 right now and then would lose to KC and OAK to finish 8-2 or 9-3 including division games. DET is then 9-2-1 in common games, wins tiebreak over GB, then loses 5 seed to ATL via h2h tiebreak, and the process restarts and DET gets 6 seed. Hope I cleared it up for you.



Since: Dec 7, 2010
Posted on: December 6, 2011 6:53 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Because the Ravens dont have a surefire Tiebreaker over CIN and in a scenario, where Baltimores Playoff berth is still n doubt, you could expect them to lose all remaining games, making a tie with PIT very unlikely.

its funny, because on the other side, the Ravens are the only team, whoich controls its own destiny concerning the No 1 Pick.



Since: Jun 2, 2007
Posted on: December 6, 2011 6:19 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Could someone please explain how Pitt can clinch in Week 14 and not Baltimore? The Ravens have the tiebreaker over them in that they beat them twice.



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 6, 2011 5:19 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

oops overlooked SD 8-8 Div winnning :)



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 6, 2011 3:55 am
 

Question Regarding Last Weeks Green Bay Scenario

Someone please help me with this... (Hopefully Joe or Brett) :)


Wasn't a GB tie sufficient for a playoff berth in week 13


It was stated by Joe that a (GB tie + CHI loss/tie) would clinch a GB playoff berth.  I'm sure I'm overlooking something but I am having difficulty producing this scenario.  Brett also said that he was able to verify this scenario but would have reworded it differently as (GB tie + CHI tie) to eliminate redundancy.


I've looked at both explanations that both Joe and Brett provided, but I still don't see how DET could have been seeded before GB in any circumstance where GB finished with the same record as DET.  Prior to the week 13 games it appeared that GB had tiebreaker advantage over both CHI and DET when ending with same record.  This was based on GB having an insurrmountable division record.  So if GB and DET finish at 11-4-1 then the worst GB can finish is as a #2 seed within the NFC North if CHI had finished at 12-4.


Brett, in your explanation of the (GB tie + ATL tie + NO tie) you talk about how GB would lose to DET at 11-4-1 based on DET having the better common games record.  I don't see how common games even comes into the picture since GB will already have won the tiebreaker over DET based on an insurrmountable division record.  Going into week 13 GB already had 4 wins (MIN twice and CHI once and DET once).


Based on my analysis, I think a GB tie in week 13 was sufficient for a playoff berth.   But maybe I've overlooked something that can be easily explained.  Thanks for taking a look!


-Cheers 



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 6, 2011 3:53 am
 

Question Regarding Last Weeks Green Bay Scenario

Someone please help me with this... (Hopefully Joe or Brett) :)


Wasn't a GB tie sufficient for a playoff berth in week 13


It was stated by Joe that a (GB tie + CHI loss/tie) would clinch a GB playoff berth.  I'm sure I'm overlooking something but I am having difficulty producing this scenario.  Brett also said that he was able to verify this scenario but would have reworded it differently as (GB tie + CHI tie) to eliminate redundancy.


I've looked at both explanations that both Joe and Brett provided, but I still don't see how DET could have been seeded before GB in any circumstance where GB finished with the same record as DET.  Prior to the week 13 games it appeared that GB had tiebreaker advantage over both CHI and DET when ending with same record.  This was based on GB having an insurrmountable division record.  So if GB and DET finish at 11-4-1 then the worst GB can finish is as a #2 seed within the NFC North if CHI had finished at 12-4.


Brett, in your explanation of the (GB tie + ATL tie + NO tie) you talk about how GB would lose to DET at 11-4-1 based on DET having the better common games record.  I don't see how common games even comes into the picture since GB will already have won the tiebreaker over DET based on an insurrmountable division record.  Going into week 13 GB already had 4 wins (MIN twice and CHI once and DET once).


Based on my analysis, I think a GB tie in week 13 was sufficient for a playoff berth.   But maybe I've overlooked something that can be easily explained.  Thanks for taking a look!


-Cheers 


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