Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 9:40 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I can't speak for anyone else, but without a large abundance of clinching scenarios, I think it's more efficient to keep it as one post for now.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2011 8:56 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

GW....i was going to keep it as one blog for one more week....but you guys let me know if you want it separate.

Here's what I have for the League at this moment....looking pretty solid:

 

NE clinches division title with:

1) WIN

2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie

3) NYJ loss

 

NE clinches playoff berth with:

1) TIE

2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

 

BAL clinches playoff berth with:

1) WIN or TIE

2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie

3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie

4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

 

PIT clinches playoff berth with:

1) WIN or TIE

2) NYJ loss

3) TEN loss/tie

4) OAK loss/tie

5) DEN loss

 

GB clinches home-field advantage with:

1) WIN or TIE

2) SF loss/tie

 

NO clinches division title with:

1) WIN + ATL loss/tie

2) TIE + ATL loss

 

i don't see DET or ATL clinching this week (DET has conf record issues + Chi in division + ATL H2H loss....and ATL has conf record issues + H2H loss to CHI)




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 12, 2011 8:42 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Joe: 

Are you going to have separate blogs for the AFC and NFC plyoffs?  Just curious as that has been done in the past.  There's only three playoff spots left in the NFC with only one spot clinched in the AFC.



Since: Apr 1, 2008
Posted on: December 12, 2011 5:55 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

  The Broncos win at home vs. Pittsburgh 19-16 in round 1 while the Jets win a close one vs. NE.24-23.  After the Jets upset Bal.20-16 and Denver takes out the Yates led Texans 20-13, a Jets at Broncos AFC title game is set. Nothing left to say here, except Denver 27 Green Bay 24 in the Superbowl. 



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 5:41 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

An interesting situation just appeared to me. If the Seattle Seahawks find a way to beat SF, who was just upset by Arizona, and win the rest of their schedule (STL,CHI,ARI), which is all somewhat possible, they have a definite shot to make the playoffs! Their conf record would be 8-4, and all other teams would be worse in a tie. So, if DET found a way to lose to SD or OAK, and lost to GB, while CHI lost to GB, the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS would actually make the playoffs! Maybe we will see another beast quake this year after all....

On another note, ARI has a relatively easy schedule left with CLE/CIN/SEA. If they win out, and DET loses to SD/OAK and GB, and CHI loses 2 games, and either DAL wins the division or loses 2 of their remaining games, the ARIZONA CARDINALS could make the playoffs!
Of course these scenarios are unlikely, but they are far more likely than I had originally thought (I paid no attention to either team in the playoff hunt) 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2011 3:19 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

NE has not yet clinched the SOV with HOU (NE is ahead). Doubt that NE can clinch this week.

Probably best to look at that once the Week 15 blog has started.

Remember if BAL also wins out, PIT will not be involved in any tie-breker with NE and HOUS, as they will be division champs while PIT will be wild-card. So PIT really doesn't enter into this discussion. They would be pushed out of the 3-way tie on conf record
IF BAL wins out, best PIT can finish is 5-seed. IF BAL does not win out, and PIT/NE/HOU do, the best PIT can do is finish 2nd, and only if HOU can overcome its SOV deficit against NE, for an HOU-PIT-NE 1-2-3 seeding. otherwise it's NE-HOU-PIT

SOV is the combined records of the teams one beats.




Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 3:15 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I have come up with the following seeding scenarios:

SF
Clinch #3 with:
  1. Win/tie
  2. DAL loss/tie

NO
Clinch #3 with:
  1. Win + ATL loss/tie
  2. Tie + ATL loss

Clinch #5 with:
  1. Win
  2. Tie + DET tie
  3. DET loss

Looking at the 10-6 tiebreakers is interesting.  Division champs at 10-6 can be SF, NO or ATL, and DAL or NYG.  ATL can only be 10-6 NFCS champ with a LOSS this week (+ NO loss).  SF does well in the tiebreakers except when DAL is involved (h2h loss).  SF defeats NO by conf rec (NO won all AFC games) at any record.  DAL could be the #2 if SF-NO-DAL tie at 10-6.  @10-6 SF vs. ATL comes down to SOV, which neither team can clinch this week.  SF could be a #4 with a tie against only DAL, or a tie between SF-DAL-ATL where ATL wins SOV.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 3:02 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I don't see DET or ATL clinching a playoff spot in Week 15.  Assuming a CHI loss to SEA, CHI still defeats DET @9-7 by div record, and defeats ATL @9-7 by h2h.  And there is no way to guarantee a multiple team tiebreak.

I find it interesting that both NYG and DAL can still win the division @9-7 even with a loss this week while the other team wins.  And a Week 17 tie could allow both to be 9-6-1 (making DAL a potential wc)



Since: Dec 5, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 3:01 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Is there anyway to determine at this point and time if Houston can finish ahead of the Patriots in SOV if they both win out and finish at 13-3 and the Steelers win out as well?? Is SOV strictly based on the number of wins combined that the Patriots and Texans have with the teams they beat??



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 2:45 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Quick question about the Steelers should they still win the AFC North at 13-3 assuming they win out and the Ravens lose one more game and finish at 12-4 and get a wildcard spot. Would the Steelers get a top 2 seed or the number 1 seed at all if they finish 13-3 and both the Texans and Patriots finish 13-3 as well?? How would that 3 way tie work itself out,and would it come down to strength of victory and if so what is the current status for that scenario at this point and time??

NE, PIT, and HOU, all at 13-3, all division winners.
o HOU beat PIT, PIT beat NE, no contest between HOU and NE, so no H2H sweep
o Conference record: HOU 10-2, NE 10-2, PIT 9-3
o PIT out for #1 seed
o Common games: HOU 4-1, NE 4-1
o So it goes down to SoV, currently NE have at least 71 wins, HOU have at least 66 wins, so undecided yet
o If NE wins SoV then HOU grab #2 seed due to H2H over PIT
o If HOU wins SoV then PIT grab #2 seed due to H2H over NE

Just NE and PIT at 13-3 as division winners.
o PIT won H2H for #1 seed.

Just HOU and PIT at 13-3 as division winners.
o HOU won H2H for #1 seed.



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