Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Nov 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 2:39 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Under what bizarre circumstances do the Steelers not get a playoff berth?
It's one specific case, as it turns out:
PIT loses out + OAK wins out + TEN wins out + NYJ wins out (or has 1 tie) + DEN win their next 2 games and lose to KC

In this case, OAK wins the division over DEN (they split head to head; OAK 4-2 division vs. DEN 3-3); NYJ get the #1 wildcard spot (11-5 or 10-5-1) and the second one would come down to a 3-way tie between PIT, TEN and DEN. There is no sweep among these teams, they would all be 8-4 in conference, and there are not enough common games for that tiebreaker to occur. Thus, it would come down to SoV which I don't believe any one of the three have clinched (therefore, either DEN or TEN could jump ahead of PIT for the #2 wildcard).



Since: Oct 27, 2008
Posted on: December 12, 2011 2:35 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

LN1313:


The Steelers can still miss the playoffs if they finish in a 3-way tie with the Titans and Broncos at 10-6, losing the Strength of Victory tiebreaker.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 2:34 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

They might do so under the bizarre circumstances that
- NE win out, winning the AFC East
- NYJ win out, 11-5, taking the #5 seed
- they lose out, 10-6
- TEN win out, 10-6
- OAK win out, winning the AFC West at 10-6
- DEN losing to NE, then winning out, 10-6, but this way not winning the division.

All that will result in a 3way tie in which
- PIT beat TEN, but TEN beat DEN, so no H2H sweep
- they all are 8-4 in conference record
- no 4 common games
and all goes down to SoV, which is undecided yet, with PIT at 55 wins, TEN at 49 wins, and DEN at 56 to 61 wins.




Since: Dec 12, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 2:19 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

A question for the experts....I'm a Ravens fan and found it interesting that the Steelers had teh possibility of clinching a playoff spot this past weekend, but not the Ravens.  I see that they didn't though.  I've been playing with a scenario generator all day and have yet to figure out how the Steelers DON'T make the playoffs.  At one point, I was able to make the Ravens miss out, but every combination I put in had the Steelers going to the post season.

Under what bizarre circumstances do the Steelers not get a playoff berth?



Since: Dec 5, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 2:16 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Quick question about the Steelers should they still win the AFC North at 13-3 assuming they win out and the Ravens lose one more game and finish at 12-4 and get a wildcard spot. Would the Steelers get a top 2 seed or the number 1 seed at all if they finish 13-3 and both the Texans and Patriots finish 13-3 as well?? How would that 3 way tie work itself out,and would it come down to strength of victory and if so what is the current status for that scenario at this point and time?? Plus, what are the Steelers scenarios this weekend to clinch at least a wildcard berth aside from winning Monday night in San Francisco??



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2011 2:08 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

and GW....just to clarify....the NE scenarios are Losses or Ties....so it's:

NE clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie


this is in addition to NE clinching division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

      
;   



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2011 2:03 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Figment....


Honestly....not a ton of resources.  I use the official NFL standings once they are updated for divisional and conference records...and the basic listing of current SOV and SOS percentages and wins.   I have a program written long ago that helps me on Common Opponents...and that's about it.   Then it's brain power...walking through situations, scenarios...checking the multiple potential ties, who can and can't win divisions, and looking for situations where teams can use other teams to beat teams they might lose to H2H.

Also...work with Santo from Elias Sports Bureau who I've been working with since the 90's on this....he has more computer power but is top notch at Tiebreakers.  We compare notes...challenge the other if/when we disagree...and then come to consensus...and send to League.    

That's about it. 



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 12, 2011 1:48 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

To correct my previous post regarding NE, I'm removing scenario #3, as OAK can win the AFC West at 10-6 and DEN would have h2h over NE.  so for NE to clinch a playoff spot, there must beat least an OAK loss and a TEN loss.  So now the clear scenarios for NE to get a playoff spot are:


1. TIE
2. CIN loss + Oak loss + TEN loss


Quick AFC eliminations:

KC out w/ loss/tie or DEN win/tie
SD out w/ loss + DEN win +OAK win + KC in + NYJ win     &n
bsp;   



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2011 1:36 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

GW....

on your #3...i think you're missing the fact that if you don't have OAK lose, OAK can still win the division at 10-6 and DEN can be a Wild Card at 10-6 with win this week against NE and BUF next week and lose to KC final week (OAK wins division on division record).  Then...you have DEN vs. NE for final Wild Card spot...and guess what...NE is losing to DEN this week in this scenario.


on your #4....NE-CIN at 10-6 doesn't come down to SOV.   In this scenario, CIN would beat NE on common opponents 2-3 vs. 1-4 as NE is 1-2 now and would lose to DEN and BUF in this scenario.  So don't see #4 working either.


Make sense?      



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 1:36 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

3. BAL win + PIT win + CIN loss + TEN loss.
Leaving out the OAK loss could lead to 10-6 OAK winning the division. Then a 10-6 DEN takes the #6 seed on week 15 H2H.
4. OAK loss + TEN loss + NE clinches SoV over CIN
NE and CIN both at 10-6, gives CIN the common games tiebreaker.
o NE: BUF 0-2, PIT 0-1, DEN 0-1, IND 1-0, total 1-4.
o CIN: BUF 1-0, PIT 0-2, DEN 0-1, IND 1-0, total 2-3.



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