Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 12, 2011 12:53 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Noob:


You have one scenario for a NE wild card, which works.  I found two other scenarios for a NE wild card that may also work.  They are:


BAL win + PIT win + CIN loss + TEN loss.  NE already has h2h over OAK.  With both BAL and PIT winning, either team gets the #5 seed. Note that a 10-6 tie with NE and CIN would be determined by SoV, in which NE has a significant edge. Both BAL and PIT have the tiebreakres over NE in a 2-way tie.  So it looks like NE can clinch a playoff spot with:


1. TIE
2. CIN loss + OAK loss + TEN loss 
3. BAL win + PIT win + CIN loss + TEN loss.
4. OAK loss + TEN loss + NE clinches SoV over CIN 


Let me know what you think.

GW  





        



Since: Oct 25, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2011 12:17 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Joe, just a random question for you... what sorts of tools do you use to help you figure/analyze playoff scenarios?  Is it just a large Excel spreadsheet, or some other piece of software, or shares of stock in a legal pad company that helps you digest all of the facts and figures to come up with the official scenarios?



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 7:35 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Noob.johnson: i agree with your BAL scenarios, but I just wanted to point out that i don't think SoV between NYJ and BAL ever comes into the picture. If TEN loses and NYj loses, the worst BAL can do is a 3 way tie with DEN/OAK and NYJ for both wild cards. NYJ drop out being swept h2h, and BAL is in. If NYJ and OAK loses, TEN wins 5 seed on conf record, and BAL wins 6 on h2h over NYJ. If TEN and OAK lose, BAL cannot tie either and thus can lose to only NYJ in the wild card race, so they win the 5 seed. Theres no wrong way to get to a right answer, but that's how I see the situations, with no SoV coming into play.



Since: Nov 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 6:12 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

ATL playoffs:
1) win + DAL loss + NYG loss + CHI loss + ARI loss
This doesn't work due to the fact that Chicago beat Atlanta this year. Chicago could still win out and Atlanta lose out and both would finish 9-7. As long as Detroit finishes the season 1-1-1 or better (thus, 9-6-1 or better), Detroit gets the #5 seed and Chicago gets the #6.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 6:00 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

If SEA do not win tonight:

ATL playoffs:
1) win + DAL loss + NYG loss + CHI loss + ARI loss



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 5:36 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

BAL wild card:

1) win/tie
2) NYJ loss + TEN tie/loss
3) NYJ loss + OAK tie/loss
4) TEN tie/loss + OAK tie/loss

Tiebreakers if BAL are 10-6:
- vs. NE 10-6. H2H: none. Conference: BAL 7-5. NE 7-5. Common games NYJ, SD, PIT, and IND: BAL 4-1. NE 4-1. SoV: BAL, already won.
- vs. NYJ 10-6. H2H: BAL. Conference (if 3way tie): BAL 7-5. NYJ 7-5 or 6-6. SoV: BAL, already won.
- vs. TEN 10-6. H2H: TEN. Confernce: BAL 7-5. TEN 8-4.
- vs. OAK 10-6. H2H: none. Conference BAL 7-5. OAK 7-5. Common games NYJ, SD, CLE, and HOU: BAL 3-2. OAK 4-1. SoV (if 3way tie): undecided
- vs. DEN 10-6. H2H: none. Conference BAL 7-5. DEN 8-4.

+ If I did the math on BAL/NE/NYJ SoV correctly, neither a 10-6 NE nor a 10-6 NYJ are a threat to BAL.
+ So BAL is in the playoffs unless two of those three happen: 11-5 or 10.5-5.5 NYJ, 10-6 TEN, or 10-6 AFC West #2.
+ 10-6 AFC West #2 cannot happen with OAK tie/loss



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2011 5:32 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Just one more comment on the 3-way 13-3 ti-breaker for BAl/NE/HOU


WE figured that BAL has already clinched the SOV TB for that scenario, and thus has control of HFA. But, on a procedural note, it was sufficient that BAL clinch merely a tie with NE on SOV to win the tie-breaker, since, with a tie at SOV, the next step would not be SOS, but rather, since it was a 3-way tie, reverting to step 1 of the 2-way tie between NE and BAL, which BAL would have already sown up on common games.


I guess we still need to look at NE/HOUS SOV to determine control of 2nd place.





Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 3:52 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

NE divison title:
1) win
2) tie + NYJ tie/loss
3) NYJ loss

NE wild card:
1) tie
2) CIN tie/loss + TEN tie/loss + OAK tie/loss

Tiebreakers:
- NE vs. CIN 10-6. H2H: none. Conference: NE 7-5. CIN 7-5. Common games BUF, DEN, PIT, and IND: NE 1-4. CIN 2-3.
- NE vs. TEN 10-6. H2H: none. Conference: NE 7-5. TEN 8-4.
- NE vs. OAK 10-6. H2H: NE. But OAK can still win the divison, so that DEN can get in the mix.
- NE vs. DEN 10-6. H2H: DEN. Conference (if 3way tie): NE 7-5. DEN 8-4.

So even as NE own the tiebreaker over OAK, an OAK tie/loss is necessary to exclude a scenario where DEN are 10-6 and not winning the AFC West.





Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 1:10 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

For BAL, I believe losses by two of OAK, NYJ, And TEN does the trick. Again I could well be wrong but I don't see any other ways (excl ties) for BAL to clinch a spot w/o a win.



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 12, 2011 12:52 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I was going through scenarios for afc wild card being decided at 10-6, and i came across the situation where NYJ and CIN tie for the wc (TEN would win on conf record if they were tied, and I am not including OAK or BAL at 10-6 for now. In this case, I believe it goes to SoV, and right now I think it is incredibly close (am I right? I very well might not be). This leads me to wonder: has there ever been a situation where an unrelated game has determined a tiebreaker in the final week for SoV? That would be crazy. Also, I didn't go thru it, but if OAK enters that tie at 10-6 (I'll again leave out BAL because I can't imagine them losing out), do they win SoV? I know they have a fairly large pct. lead right now, but that can change fast. Insight appreciated as always.


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