Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 12, 2011 12:48 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Noob:

The only way OAK can win a 10-6 tiebreaker over DEN is OAK wins out and DEN's only loss is to KC in week 17. OAK would win the division record tiebreaker 4-2 to DEN  3-3,  If DEN lose to a team other than KC, division records are tied at 4-2 and DEN wins common opponents over OAK.

So with DEN losing that's a NE win and the AFC East for NE. DEN is assured the AFC West with a 10-6 record, which make the wild card contenders NYJ, PIT, TEN, OAK.  NYJ can be 11-5 with the #5 seed.  PIT and TEN baet OAK on AFC record, then PIT has h2h over TEN. for the #6 seed.

For BAL, there may be possibilities to get in with a loss, but I'll look at those later. 



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 12:29 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Ok, I take it back. I've made the same mistake. A loss against NE results in a win against BUF.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2011 12:22 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Imho a DEN loss is not enough for a 10-6 PIT.
+ OAK win the AFC West at 10-6.
+ NYJ grab the #5 seed at 11-5.
+ TEN and DEN tie PIT at 10-6.
+ No H2H sweep.
+ Conference record all tie at 8-4
+ No 4 common games.
+ PIT have not win SoV over TEN nor DEN.




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2011 12:14 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Gw....yes...glad you caught your NE initial oversight.  have same results for PIT at this time.   Good work.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 11, 2011 11:50 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Joe:

For my Steelers clinching scenarios, I've now factored in NE as a wild card with NYJ winning the AFC East at 11-5, here's what I have.

The OAK loss scenario works because at a 3-way 10-6 tie with PIT, NE, and TEN, PIT wins the h2h sweep of NE and TEN for the #5 seed. Then TEN gets the #6 seed due to better AFC record than NE.

The TEN loss also works where DEN, PIT and NE tie, assuming OAK wins the AFC West at 10-6.  NE drops out of the 3-way due to AFC record,  PIT wins common opponents over DEN to get the #5 seed.  If DEN wins the AFC West, PIT gets the #5 seed over OAK and NE with pitt having a better conference record than both teams.

A DEN loss = NE win, which clinches the AFC East for NE.   hope I clarified everything  So basically, I have this for PIT clinching:

1. win/tie
2. NYJ loss
3. OAK loss
4. TEN loss
5. DEN loss

Let me know what you think. 



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 11, 2011 11:10 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Joe:

Just realized in my #2. #3, and #4 scenarios for PIT in my previous post wher NYJ can win the AFC East at 11-5, which would put NE in the mix  at 10-6.    I'm pretty sure that a NYJ loss puts PT in, but now, I need to factor NE into the equation.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 11, 2011 10:55 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Joe:

I think I have all the scenarios for PIT clinching next week.  PIT win/tie is obvious.  I have any one of four teams losing for PIT to clinch:

1. NYJ loss
2. OAK loss
3. TEN loss
4. DEN loss

Scenario 1: AFC Records in parenthesis.  OAK can still win the AFC West at 10-6 over DEN.  For the #5 seed, you have PIT (8-4), TEN (8-4) DEN (8-4) and NYJ (7-5).  NYJ drops out of 4-way tie.  DEN, PIT, and TEN go to SoV.  If either DEN or TEN win SoV to get the #5 seed, PIT has h2h over TEN and common opponents over DEN, where POT gets the #6 seed.

Scenario 2: NYJ has the #5 seed at 11-5.  OAK loss gives DEN the AFC West at 10-6  PIT has h2h over TEN. PIT gets the #6 seed.

Scenario 3: This removes the 3-way DEN, PIT, TEN tie at 10-6.  NYJ has the #5 seed.  If DEN is a wild card at 10-6, PIT wins the #6 due to common opponents.  PIT 5-0 to DEN 3-2.  If OAK is the wild card, PIT beats OAK on AFC record.

Scenario 4:A DEN loss to NE assures DEN the AFC West at 10-6 due to common opponents over OAK.  NYJ gets the #5 seed at 11-5. OAK drops out of the 3-way with PIT and TEN due to AFC Record.  Then PIT gets the #6 seed due to h2h over TEN.

Note: CIN is now locked into 3rd in the AFC North.  Let me know what you think



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 11, 2011 9:55 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

QUICKIE Week 15 Scenarios

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

NE division title:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NE playoff:
1) TIE

BAL playoff:
1) WIN or TIE

PIT playoff:
1) WIN or TIE

[NOTE: Obviously need to look at NE, BAL and PIT playoff scenarios with losses]


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE  

GB homefield advantage throughout playoffs:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NO division title:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss




Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 11, 2011 9:30 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

jeff6286, well with DEN winning today (with some assistance from Marion Barber III), would you stay in bounds, please! :-)), PIT did not clinch a playoff berth this week and so we didn't have a second place team clinch before a first place team in their division.  In any case, besides the 2000 PHI/NYG example I provided earlier, I did want to share a couple more instances:

x-Clinched playoff berth

1974 Week 12

AFC East
MIA 9-3 (Dolphins in 1st place based on H2H sweep over BUF)
x-BUF 9-3 

1986 Week 15

AFC East
NE 10-5 (Patriots in 1st place based on better division record, 6-1 to Jets' 6-2)
x-NYJ 10-5

In both of these cases, the '74 Dolphins (with 2 weeks to play) and '86 Patriots (with 1 week to play) had not clinched a playoff berth at that point yet, but each went on to clinch the division title the following week.  Thanks for the question and you are correct that it is indeed rare.  We'll save these for future reference.



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 11, 2011 6:17 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

It has to be impossible for the 2nd place team to clinch and be a whole game back. If the 2nd place team has clinched a playoff spot, the worst they can do is tie for the #6 seed and win tiebreakers. In that scenario, even if the 1st place team loses all their games, they finish a game ahead of the 2nd place team and thus win the division. If the 2nd place team wins the division, the 1st place team is guaranteed a wild card because they would finish a game better than the 2nd place team's worst case scenario, where the 2nd place team wins tiebreakers. Thus, tiebreakers aren't necessary, and the 1st place team wins the wild card. SO, the short answer would be that a 2nd place team could only clinch ahead of a 1st place team in the same division and have worse winning % if there are late season byes. 


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