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Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 11, 2011 5:42 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Hello all:

Just some quick hits in the AFC for week 15:

NE clinches the AFC East with:
1. NE win
2. Tie + NYJ tie
3. NYJ loss


BAL clinches a playoff spot with:
1. BAL win 

If PIT doesn't clinch today, some scenarios for PIT for week 15 are:
1. PIT win
2. NYJ loss 

Congrats to the Houston Texans on clinching  the AFC South and their first ever playoff appearence.



Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 11, 2011 5:11 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Wow, thanks for that awesome bit of trivia, thenflrules. I was thinking that this could have happened between two division teams with the same record, but I would have never even thought about a team clinching before a team in their own division with a better record. I'm thinking that was probably only possibly between 1999 and 2001 when there were bye weeks in the final weeks of the season. While the Eagles were able to clinch their playoff berth despite trailing the Giants by 1/2 game, surely it would be impossible for a team to clinch a spot while being a full game behind a team in their own divsion that had not, wouldn't it?



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 11, 2011 4:54 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

ELIMINATIONS this week:

TB, CAR and WAS in NFC.   MIA in AFC.  BUF out with loss at SD. 



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 11, 2011 3:18 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

What would probably be much more unusual would be for the second place team in a division to clinch a playoff spot before the division leader, which as mentioned could happen this week as PIT could clinch at least a WC spot despite trailing BAL in the AFC North. I'm sure that at some point in NFL history a situation similar to this has occurred, or at least had the potential to occur in one given weekend of play, but I wouldn't have the slightest idea where to begin looking for it.
Jeff,

I remember this happening in the 2000 season when the second place Philadelphia Eagles had clinched a playoff spot before the division leading NY Giants.  These were the NFC standings with two weeks to play back in 2000 (I'll only include teams still in contention at that point; x-clinched playoff berth):

2000 - WEEK 15

NFC East
NYG 10-4
x-PHI 10-5
WAS 7-7

NFC Central
x-MIN 11-3
TB 9-5 
DET 8-6
GB 7-7

NFC West
NO 9-5
STL 9-5 

PHI (10-5) had actually been swept by NYG and also had 1 more loss than NYG (10-4), yet the Eagles had clinched a playoff berth in Week 15 after defeating CLE.  (PHI had played an extra game since they didn't have their bye until Week 16).  The Giants had not clinched a playoff spot yet since at 10-6 they could lose the tiebreaker with DET for the final wildcard spot due to H2H loss to DET.  NYG would clinch the NFC East title the following week with their win at Dallas.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 11, 2011 2:44 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Or it's just because the orange already played 11 carrots and 2 peas, while the apple only played 8 carrotts yet but 5 peas. With lots of wins over carrots being the clinching thingy. ;)



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 11, 2011 2:16 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

"clinching apples and oranges". That's a great line and it fits perfectly! However, despite that fact it still makes me wonder (and it might be hard to figure out although I wouldn't put any of it past the ability of the tiebreaker maniacs) how many times (if ever) something of the like has happened with team(s) clinching while the team with control of #1 hasn't yet.
@nygsb42.

Thanks for not being so dismissive as noob on my observation. While division winners can of course come early from imbalanced divisions, in this case we have a team from the very division having clinched a spot (PIT), ahead of BAL.

It's a case of 2 apples and 2 oranges, with the oranges exhibiting the unusual behavior.


Not earth-shatering, i'll admit, but unusual.

    
  




      
;


  



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 11, 2011 1:56 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

@jeff6286: Good point. The 2nd place team clinching first scenario would be much more rare because it would require the first place team to win H2H or common games over the 2nd place team but have a weaker conf. record (or SoV). I would imagine it has at least been possible on a given weeked to happen, but I have no idea what the odds would be of it having happened



Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 11, 2011 1:04 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

@nygsb42: I'm guessing that a situation like this isn't all that uncommon, where a team (or teams) in a weaker division have already clinched a playoff spot while the team(s) currently in control of the #1/#2 seeds have not. I can't seem to find a specific example, but this could have easily happened in the NFC this year, where if a couple of Seattle and Arizona results had gone the right way, SF could have clinched the NFC West as early as week 11, or at the very least with a win over BAL in week 12, while undefeated GB would have still not clinched their playoff spot until week 13.

What would probably be much more unusual would be for the second place team in a division to clinch a playoff spot before the division leader, which as mentioned could happen this week as PIT could clinch at least a WC spot despite trailing BAL in the AFC North. I'm sure that at some point in NFL history a situation similar to this has occurred, or at least had the potential to occur in one given weekend of play, but I wouldn't have the slightest idea where to begin looking for it.



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 11, 2011 11:27 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

"clinching apples and oranges". That's a great line and it fits perfectly! However, despite that fact it still makes me wonder (and it might be hard to figure out although I wouldn't put any of it past the ability of the tiebreaker maniacs) how many times (if ever) something of the like has happened with team(s) clinching while the team with control of #1 hasn't yet. 



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 11, 2011 11:02 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

So, BAL wins the 3-way with NE/HOU, and the unusual circumstance of having 3 other teams possibly clinch, with BAL unclinched but holding control of HFA.

That's because of clinching apples and oranges here.
NE and HOU can clinch their division today with only 10 wins. But neither can clinch even a wild card, if their opposition also wins.
As BAL cannot clinch the division with 10 wins today (nor a wild card), there is the reason for the unusual circumstance.


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