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Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 11, 2011 10:51 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I was determined not to look into this SOV scenario again, but I am a victim of my own personality.  I think I can explain this whole SOV situation in pretty straightforward terms.

Assume NE, BAL, and HOU all win out and end 13-3.

Currently, the teams NE has defeated have 46 wins.  The teams BAL has defeated have 64 wins (this includes PIT Thu night win over CLE).  Previously, we determined HOU could not catch BAL so I am ignoring them in this comparison.

NE's four wins give them 20 more opponent victories (BUF 5, MIA 4, DEN 7, WAS 4).  BAL's four wins nets them 16 more victories (CIN 7, CLE 4, IND 0, and SD 5).  Plus they get 4 more victories from HOU achieving 13 wins.  So the total is now BAL 84, NE 66.

NE will earn 13 more victories from games in which teams NE has defeated play each other.  For example, NYJ/MIA accounts for 2 victories (since NE has defeated both twice).  NYJ/KC accounts for 1 victory (more on this later).  BAL gains 9 more victories from games in which teams BAL has defeated play each other (again PIT/CLE accounts for 2).  BAL 93, NE 79.  (This is the minimum # of wins these teams can achieve).

Let's keep BAL at its minimum.  CIN, CLE, and PIT lose all their games against the NFC West.  IND, NYJ, SD all lose out.  ARZ, STL, SF all lose to SEA.

Let's give NE as many victories as possible.  Note that IND, NYJ, and SD have already lost out.  Both BAL & NE have defeated these teams.  First have MIA win out, as NE has 2 wins against them.  BUF, DEN, KC, OAK, DAL, PHI, and WAS win out (to the extent they can).  This bring NE up to 90 wins.  BAL 93, NE 90.

Now, NE has defeated NYJ 2x, BAL, just once.  So NYJ defeating NYG makes the score BAL 94, NE 92.  Unfortunately, this is as close as NE can get (two games, like Brett reported).  NE needs MIA to defeat NYJ - NE gets 2 either way, but BAL gets 0 w/ MIA win and 2 w/ NYJ win.  If NYJ defeat PHI or KC, NE gets 2 more victories from NYJ, but lose 1 from PHI or KC.  Plus, BAL gets 1 more victory from NYJ.  So those push.  Same thing with any victories by IND (vs TEN or JAX) or SD (vs DET).

Note that 97 is NE max SOV total (I had reported 96 in an earlier post).  That would be achieved by the 92 + NYJ d PHI + NYJ d KC + IND d TEN + IND d JAX + SD d DET.  They gain no ground on BAL in any of those games.

So BAL has clinched SOV over NE and therefore has control of it's own destiny for the #1 AFC seed.












Since: Nov 6, 2007
Posted on: December 11, 2011 10:49 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Wow, sorry, my question was already answered earlier on this page, Keep up the good work! :)



Since: Nov 6, 2007
Posted on: December 11, 2011 10:44 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

ALright guys, I've been reading these the past couple weeks, and you guys are insane in your knowledge of the tiebreakers, especially Joe, but I have one thing to ask you guys,

This may be technically off topic, but it has to do with Week 15 tiebreakers instead, can the Steelers clinch the playoffs (if everybody they need to lose this week, wins) next week with simply a win, or would they still need another team(s) to lose?? Thanks in advance



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 11, 2011 10:39 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

@brett, vito, joe

Using brett's results and correcting the HOU, I too now come up with NE being AT BEST 2 wins short (1 result) of BAL.

Keeping all teams in the calculation (IND, SD. NYJ).

I get best NE SOV of    97 - 111 (208 games)
I get worst BAL SOV of 99 - 109 (208 games) which matches up with the 6 games brett ignores

So, BAL wins the 3-way with NE/HOU, and the unusual circumstance of having 3 other teams possibly clinch, with BAL unclinched but holding control of HFA.

@brett, I too thought it was uncanny that there were no double bonus games (or double punish games)     



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 11, 2011 9:22 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

@Brett - I agree that BAL has clinched SOV @ 13-3 over NE & HOU, and agree with your numbers... more on this later I hope.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 11, 2011 4:41 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Maybe a bit too early, but looking at the week 14 schedule, it came to my mind, that starting Monday the NFC could become quite boring:
+ GB win, SF loss -> #1 seed practically decided
+ NO win, ATL loss -> 3 of 4 divisions decided
+ DAL win -> remaining division race practically decided
+ CHI win, DET win, ATL win -> wild card race pratically down to those 3.

Seemed that maybe every decision (except for #2/#3 seed) could be done after week 15.
But then, after a closer look, even in case of that "horror" scenario above, there wouldn't be that many clinching scenarios in week 15:

+ DAL would clinch the division with wins in week 14 and week 15 and NYG loss in week 15.
+ DAL can't clinch even a wild card if NYG wins in week 15.

+ CHI cannot clinch #2 rank in the NFC East, even if they win both and DET lose both (and ATL lose both).
+ CHI could still lose the division tiebreaker to DET, with DET losing H2H to ATL in a 9-7 wild card tiebreaker, no playoffs for CHI.

+ DET cannot clinch #2 rank in the NFC East, even if they win both and CHI lose both (and ATL lose both).
+ DET could still lose the division tiebreaker to CHI, then losing H2H to ATL in a 9-7 wild card tiebreaker, no playoffs for DET.

+ ATL can clinch a wild card, if they win both in week 14 and week 15, and if ARI and SEA both lose 1 of their 2, and NYG lose both.
+ ATL may have other options, I didn't check, just wanted to see if it is possible.

+ NO clinch at least a wild card, if they win both week 14 and week 15.
+ NO clinch the division if ATL lose 1 of 2.

So even in case of the worst possible scenarios in weeks 14 and 15, we still have CHI and DET up for the 2nd wild card in week 16. Or hopefully more races...



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 10, 2011 9:45 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Vito,

There actually used to be a way to send private messages through this message board (I think as recently as 3 years ago).

Here is a link to the Common Games spreadsheet (not the html web address). I set it up so that anyone can edit it.


The spreadsheet has a chat feature so if we arrange to access the spreadsheet at the same time, you could give an email address. (you would be able to see if anyone else was accessing the spreadsheet at that time.) Doing this would enable me to restrict access to just you and me.
Or we could continue to leave access open to anyone.


Brett




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 10, 2011 8:49 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios



Maybe Vito can either find a mistake in mine, or find a mistake/omission in his own.

I'm now caught up with all other posts and I see that myself, Vito, and Noob agree that Baltimore has already clinched the 3-way tie.
Noob - you can reduce your set of games down further. I have only 23 on mine.


Agn, did you say you did a re-analysis yourself in which you also found Baltimore to have cl
inched this tiebreaker?

Agn, I see now that you still think Bal is one shy of clinching. But like nygsb42 said, it likely won't be an issue after Sunday. I also agree with you that one SoV analysis per week is enough. Especially at this point in the season!



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 10, 2011 8:23 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Brett...

I may be reading your post wrong, but assuming the whole premise of your analysis is a 3-way tie with BAL-NE-HOU leading to SOV, that would REQUIRE HOU to win out.

In your list of games where any ONE of those results occur and give BAL SOV advantage...THREE games have HOU winning (which of course is needed for this analysis).  So...i'm guessing if your full analysis is correct, you have surmised that BAL has indeed already clinched tiebreaker advantage over NE and HOU in a 3-way tie at 13-3.



Thank you Joe and Agn for pointing out that I completely forgot about Houston. And yes, based on my analysis, that would mean the best New England can do is get within 2 games of Baltimore in SoV. (If New England, Baltimore AND Houston all win out to get to 13-3.)

Add two wins for Baltimore (wk 15:  Hou win vs Car, and wk 17: Hou win vs. Ten).
Add one loss for England (wk 16: Ind loss vs. Hou).
- Also add in a loss for Baltimore (wk 14: Cin loss vs. Hou). (Cin games count twice since Bal will have beaten Cin twice in this scenario.)

So...
Baltimore's SoV sits at 93-98. With 11 to go, the worst they can do is 93-109.
New England's SoV sits at 79-111. With 12 to go, the best they can is 91-111.

This means that New England cannot surpass Baltimore in Strength of Victory (SoV), which, in turn, means that Baltimore has clinched the tiebreaker in this 3-way tie scenario. (Barring a mistake or other omission).

- At 13-3, each team's SoV should have 13x16 = 208 games. The missing 6 games are the games that win or lose, affect both team's SoV the same.

One extra clarfication:
- The last step I did before finding Baltimore's worst possible SoV and New England's best possible SoV was to remove the 6 games that affect both team's SoV the same. However, technically this (below) is exactly what I did.
- I removed the 6 games from Baltimore's SoV slate. One of which is the wk 16 game, [NYJ vs NYG]. (Both Bal and NE beat the Jets and will not play or already lost to the Giants). However, since New England beat the Jets twice, instead of removing this game from New England's SoV slate, I simply reduced it from counting twice to counting only once (and removed the other 5 games).

This is what happened with the other Jets games:
- [Wk 14: NYJ vs KC] and [wk 15: NYJ vs. Phi] were removed entirely since they already counted only once.
-- This was due to New England also having wins over KC and Phi.
- [wk 17: NYJ at Mia] remains on Baltimore's SoV slate since previously I had removed it entirely from New England's SoV slate.
-- If NE wins out, they will have two wins over both NYJ and Mia.

Agn, did you say you did a re-analysis yourself in which you also found Baltimore to have cl
inched this tiebreaker?  Maybe Vito can either find a mistake in mine, or find a mistake/omission in his own.

Thank you guys!

 

 

 

 




Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 10, 2011 8:09 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I don't have the patience to calculate for myself and I'm not sure who's right about the SoV issue, but it really doesn't matter at all whether SoV has been clinched. It will almost certainly be clinched for BAL tomorrow if it hasn't been already, and if somehow it doesn't happen tomorrow it sure will next week. I really think it's safe to say BAL has the SoV tiebreak. However, as someone else said earlier, it will definitely be interesting to see if one or more teams clinch spots/divisions tomorrow and the team who controls the #1 seed doesn't...


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