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Blog Entry

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 
So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Comments

Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 10, 2011 6:40 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

BAL is still 1 result short of controlling 3-way SOV.




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 10, 2011 5:20 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Now that BAL either has or will likely win SoV over NE and HOU in a 3-way 13-3 tie for control of the #1 seed in the AFC, lets look at the scenarios where any one of BAL, PIT, NE, and HOU can gain control of the #1 seed.  PIT is already 10-3.

BAL retains control of the #1 seed with a win
NE gains control of the #1 seed with a win + BAL loss/tie + HOU win + NE clinches SoV over HOU *
HOU gains control of the #1 seed with a win + BAL loss/tie + NE loss/tie **
PIT gains control of the #1 seed with a BAL loss/tie + HOU loss/tie ***

* PIT drops out of 3-way due to inferior AFC record to NE and HOU
** HOU has h2h over PIT
*** PIT has h2h over NE 

Vito: I like your analysis of the potential 11-5 AFC teams that can make the playoffs.  I'll just add a little more to it.  DEN, NE, and HOU will all win their respective divisions.  Both BAL and PIT are guarenteed at least wild card spots at 11-5.  

For BAL at 11-5 wild card, PIT wins the AFC North.  BAL has tiebreaker over CIN due to division record  BAL and TEN have 8-4 AFC records.  NYJ and OAK have 7-5 records.  TEN gets the #5 seed due to h2h over BAL.  BAL gets the #6 seed due to better AFC record than NYJ and OAK, even though BAL has the h2h over NYJ.  So at 11-5, BAL can do no worse than a #6 seed

For PIT a 11-5 wild card, PIT has h2h over CIN.  PIT beats NYJ and OAK on conference record and TEN h2h.  This guarantees PIT no worse than the #5 seed at 11-5.

IF you look at my BAL scenario, it doesn't guarantee CIN making the playoffs at 11-5.  

Looking ahead, if PIT doesn't clinch a playoff spot this weekend, PIT can clinch at least the #5 seed with one more win.  BAL needs just two wins to be guaranteed a playoff spot.

I'll be back later tomorrow for more analysis.

GW 



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 10, 2011 3:28 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Noob....that was my exact point.
Yepp... and now I finally got it. So BAL controls the #1 seed.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 10, 2011 3:00 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Noob....that was my exact point.

BAL doesn't have to clinch SOV over NE if it's just BAL and NE at 13-3 because BAL would beat NE on common opponents 5-0 to 4-1.  If HOU gets to 13-3 as well....the tiebreaker goes to SOV and the HOU wins needed for them to get to 13-3 give BAL the SOV advantage.

Right?  



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 10, 2011 2:01 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Additional comment:
If HOU also finishes 13-3, that is 4 of the critical results adding up to BAL SoV, clinching them the SoV tiebreaker.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 10, 2011 1:58 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Argh. Math 101. 64 plus 16 equals 80. Not 84.

BAL therefore starts with a 14 win margin. NE can cut the lead by 15.

So BAL still needs some help to clinch 13-3 SoV over NE, that is two of the listed results, where the winner matters, going to their favour.

Note: Any MIA game listed as "-2" will not count as two games, as the opposite outcome still results in a "-1".





Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 10, 2011 1:51 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Imho BAL already clinched the SoV, if both NE and BAL finish 13-3.
Current SoV standings:
+ BAL beat PIT (10 wins), STL (2), NYJ (7), HOU (9), ARI (5), PIT (10), CIN (7), SF (10), CLE (4), totalling 64 wins.
+ NE beat MIA (4 wins), SD (5), OAK (7), NYJ (7), DAL (7), NYJ (7), KC (5), PHI (4), IND (0), totalling 46 wins.

Additional SoV if 13-3:
+ BAL add IND (0), SD (5), CLE (4), CIN(7), that's 16 wins, totalling 84 wins.
+ NE add WAS (4 wins), DEN (7), MIA (4), BUF (5), that's 20 wins, totalling 66 wins.

So up to this stage, BAL are 18 wins ahead of NE.

Week 14 (only games that can have an effect to the 18 win margin and all to the favor of NE cutting the margin):
- CIN/HOU -> HOU -> +1
- MIA/PHI -> MIA -> -2
- NYJ/KC  -> ... -> -1
- DEN/CHI -> DEN -> -1
- ARI/SF  -> ... -> +1
- SD/BUF  -> BUF -> -1
- GB/OAK  -> OAK -> -1
- DAL/NYG -> DAL -> -1
- SEA/STL -> SEA ->  0
NE cut the lead by 5, resulting in plus 13 wins for BAL.

Week 15:
- TB/DAL  -> DAL -> -1
- BUF/MIA -> MIA -> -2
- KC/GB   -> KC  -> -1
- NYG/WAS -> WAS -> -1
- STL/CIN -> STL -> +1
- HOU/CAR -> CAR -> 0
- OAK/DET -> OAK -> -1
- ARI/CLE -> ARI -> +1
- PHI/NYJ -> ... -> -1
- SF/PIT  -> SF  -> +1
NE cut the lead by 4, resulting in plus 9 wins for BAL.

Week 16:
- IND/HOU -> IND -> 0
- CIN/ARI -> ARI -> +1
- BUF/DEN -> ... -> -1
- KC/OAK  -> ... -> -1
- NYJ/NYG -> NYJ -> -1
- WAS/MIN -> WAS -> -1
- PIT/STL -> STL -> +1
- DAL/PHI -> ... -> -1
- SEA/SF  -> SEA -> 0
NE cut the lead by 3, resulting in plus 6 wins for BAL.

Week 17:
- CLE/PIT -> ... -> +2
- MIA/NYJ -> MIA -> -2
- PHI/WAS -> ... -> -1
- NYG/DAL -> DAL -> -1
- STL/SF  -> ... -> +1
- HOU/TEN -> TEN -> 0
- DEN/KC  -> ... -> -1
- ARI/SEA -> SEA -> 0
- OAK/SD  -> OAK -> -1
NE cut the lead by 3, resulting in plus 3 wins for BAL.  

BAL wins SoV tiebreaker at 13-3 vs NE, even if it goes all wrong for them.



 











Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 10, 2011 12:32 pm
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

@vito
My analysis DID take into account how favorable  results affected the other teams. As brett pointed out the was not much "double dipping" in the BAL-NE comparison, so that may be where your result is off from mine by one.

But, I'm quite sure that BAL has NOT clinched the scenario, as brett already said. 1 result or 2 are needed, as you and I have concluded.

I would redo my analysis, but since it is not a play-off clinching or elimination scebario, I will probably wait til after the weekend games to re-eval.

Once per week is enough for me.





Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 10, 2011 11:40 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

I must correct myself on OAK. They didn't win H2H against TEN.  That was HOU, but 11-5 HOU isn't in the mix anymore. So:

OAK:
+ will be 7-5 in the conference then.
+ won H2H over NYJ.
+ lose all other ties on conference record
= no playoffs for OAK at 11-5, if two out of the four PIT, BAL, CIN, TEN are 11-5 or better.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 10, 2011 11:18 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Some ideas on AFC teams finshing 11-5 for a wild card as BAL or PIT probably end up 12-4 or 13-3 but not winning their division, leaving only 1 wild card spot for 11-5 teams. Posted are only those teams that can end 11-5 without winning their division, that is NYJ, PIT, BAL, CIN, TEN, and OAK. Whereas 11-5 NE, HOU**, and DEN will be division winners.

NYJ:
+ will be 7-5 in the conference then.
+ all other 11-5 candidates will be at least 8-4 in the conference, except for OAK.
+ lost H2H to OAK.
= no playoffs for NYJ at 11-5, if two or more other teams are 11-5 or better for a wild card spot.

PIT:
+ will be 9-3 or 8-4 in the conference then.
+ only TEN can tie them at 8-4 in conference record.
+ won H2H against TEN.
= playoffs for PIT at 11-5.

BAL:
+ will be 8-4 in the conference then.
+ lost H2H to NYJ, so could lose tie for #5 spot.
+ only TEN can tie them at 8-4 in conference record.
+ won H2H against TEN.
= playoffs for PIT at 11-5.

CIN:
+ will be 8-4 in the conference then.
+ can lose tie for #5 spot within the division to BAL or PIT
+ only TEN can tie them at 8-4 in conference record.
+ won H2H against TEN.
= playoffs for PIT at 11-5.

TEN:
+ will be 8-4 in the conference then.
+ lost H2H to PIT, BAL, CIN.
+ win ties over NYJ and OAK on conference record.
= playoffs for TEN at 11-5, unless BAL and PIT and CIN are all 11-5 or better.

OAK:
+ will be 7-5 in the conference then.
+ won H2H over both, NYJ and TEN.
+ lose all ties on conference record, if AFC North team is included.
= playoffs for OAK at 11-5, unless BAL and PIT and CIN are all 11-5 or better.

**) HOU will be division winners at 11-5, regardless which two of their remaining four games they win.
- If the two wins include at least TEN then TEN cannot finish 11-5.
- If the two wins do not include TEN, but at least IND then TEN will lose the tie on division record. HOU 5-1, TEN 4-2.
- If the two wins do not include TEN nor IND, they must be CIN and CAR, then TEN will lose the tie on common games. HOU 9-3. TEN 8-4.

Any ideas where I might be wrong?





















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