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Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 16, 2011 7:32 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Noob: what we were kind of saying was that step 2 could become h2h record if each team played all others, and step 3 could be h2h sweep (wins only) so your situation would not result in anyone winning the tiebreaker on h2h.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 16, 2011 3:00 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

This would preclude a team from winning a Wild Card tiebreaking step with a 1-0-1 record H2H vs. 1-1 and 0-1-1 for two other tied clubs.

Hope that helps.

Joe VOR (Voice of Reason)
Imho that is the only reasonable logic here.

Imagine the following:
A tied B
A won against C.
A 1-0-1
B 0-0-1
C 0-1-0

What now?
A advances on a "sweep", courtesy to B not playing against C?






Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 16, 2011 2:53 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Win a win, ATL are 10-6 (or better), granting them a wild card (or more).

With a tie, ATL are probably 9-6-1, so that they need more than just a CHI loss this week or the next. DET can still finish 11-5. DAL and NYG can tie in week 17, so both at 9-6-1. NYG division winner, DAL eliminating ATL fpr #6 seed on conference record, 6-5-1 vs 6-6.

So at 9-6-1 imho, they additionally need DET to get at best a tie and a loss in week 15 and in week 16. Plus NYG or DAL, either one, doesn't matter, not winning at least once in week 15 or week 16.





Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 16, 2011 2:48 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

OMG!!!

So i'm out of touch for a couple of days and the blog goes to pieces?   What the hell?

My only POV is that you guys are all crazy....and i kinda like it. 

By the way, POV tiebreaker is broken by SOA (Strength of Argument) not HH2HH.   ;-)

So....we're back to the Reverting to Step 1 for three or more team ties discussion again are we?

Here's the deal...

If tie is in division...here's the official language:
 
THREE OR MORE CLUBS
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one or more clubs are eliminated during any step, tie-breaker re-starts at Step One oftwo-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tie-breaker re-starts at Step One of three-club format.)

If tie is for Wild Card...here's the official language (only difference is it mentions reverting to Step TWO for three remaining clubs since Step One in Wild Card in that situation is making sure you break division ties first): 
THREE OR MORE CLUBS
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one or more clubs are eliminated during any step, tie-breaker re-starts at Step One of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tie-breaker re-starts at Step Two of three-club format.) 

 
The language in bold was added for clarity after discussing this with the League (and following up to our discussion here...congrats...you helped changed NFL official rules!).   I am just now noticing that CBSSports.com hasn't added the language to its TIEBREAKER EXPLANATIONS tab (I have notified them now) and that was likely adding to continued confusion.   I also noticed that our friends with the Playoff Machine some of you like have a version from what appears to be 2008:  http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/

story?page=tiebreakers
I also think ESPN hasn't adjusted their algorithm used in the Playoff Machine as I ran across a scenario a week ago where they should have reverted to Step 2 for 3 clubs once a 4th tied club was eliminated and they did which affected their projected outcome.

Also...don't forget to note the key addition the League has tweaked over the years in the "OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES" to add clarity.
 

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.


I'm sure my buddy NFLrules can pull out exactly when we made changes since he tracks this stuff nicely...but I think this is pretty clear.  Bottom line...WHEN IN DOUBT...ALWAYS REVERT!!!

As for this language:
 

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

I do think the League would need to officially weigh in...but when I asked them and Elias Sports Bureau about this last year, they clearly thought it had to be a SWEEP including all WINS ("defeated") or LOSSES ("lost to") based on the quoted language.  This would preclude a team from winning a Wild Card tiebreaking step with a 1-0-1 record H2H vs. 1-1 and 0-1-1 for two other tied clubs.

Hope that helps.

Joe VOR (Voice of Reason) 

hah.



   

 




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 15, 2011 11:26 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I'm following the discussion regarding SoV.  Denver got a little help in the SoV with PIT as a result of ATL beating JAX.  Of course, this puts ATL into a position to clinch a playoff spot in week 16.  So for ATL to clinch a playoff spot in week 16:

If CHI wins, ATL win + CHI loss
If CHI loses, ATL win/tie

These are just two scenarios I see now.  Also of note, if either DAL or NYG finish at 10-6, that team will win the NFC east.

This now changes Seattle's elimination scenario to a SEA loss + DET win. 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2011 10:24 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

brett,

nyg is referring to my welcome back comment when Joe reopened the TB blog

   "The tiebreakers are what we thought they were..." was my way of saying that I wasn't going to argue about what they should or should not say, but stick to what Joe has said they are. And I'll stick to that this year.


 Where is database anyways...




Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 15, 2011 10:15 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett: The ravens are definitely a good example of this. On the flip side, so are my giants. While the giants SoV isn't particularly good, the brutality of their schedule robbed them of a greater opportunity to win more games, so those tough games should be included too, aka SoS. Also, I was only half serious about bothering agn. Mostly I just meant that I have no need to get into a long discussion about it, but this has been just fine so never mind.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 15, 2011 9:33 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

nygsb42:
I like your argument for how SoV is currently tabulated (perhaps that is why I lost the PoV tiebreaker). I also like your argument for SoS being a better measuring stick than SoV. To support that argument, you can point to this year's Ravens. They are raking right now in SoV, having beaten all the top teams they've played, while their relatively poor losses go unaccounted for until you get to SoS. - losses against Seattle, Tennessee, and Jacksonville.

I don't think you were bothering agn. I think it was a light-hearted reaction poking fun at the fact that he, I, and some others have spent countless hours and posts discussing the language of the written tiebreaking procedure. It started a couple years ago and culminated last season in a blog with literally hundreds of posts solely on this topic.



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 15, 2011 9:02 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett: the idea you suggest is a very intriguing one, and I certainly see your logic. However, I disagree with it. While a team is half victorious over a team they have tied, they have not beaten the team more than they have lost to it, so I think that it doesn't satisfy the idea of SoV, which is supposed to determine what team has beaten the strongest competition. However, personally I think SoS is a better tiebreaker than SoV, because SoS accounts for the fact that you may have a worse record than you should have based on a tough schedule or vice versa. But, to avoid bothering agn, i'll leave that alone now. The tiebreakers certainly are what we thought they were...



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 15, 2011 8:37 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

PoV = point of view! Now I get it. I have won my share of PoV's, but I did lose a memorable one.

I tried to argue the following:
Since a tie game counts as a half win + a half loss in the standings (and in all tiebreaking records), then the record of a tied oponent should count 50% towards a team's SoV - due to a team technically being "half-victorious" against a tied opponent.   I still think there is merit to this idea (there is logic to it and it ensures that a 10-6 team and a 9-5-2 team have the same number of games in their SoV records), but it's definitely not the current practice!


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com