Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 15, 2011 8:24 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I'll spare everyone the details, but Pit cannot clinch the 3-way SoV (Pit-Den-Ten) this week even if Den vs. NE ends tied. Also, if that game does end tied, then Den cannot clinch the 3-way SoV (Pit-Den-Ten) this week either.

Because Den vs. NE could end tied, the following needs to be ammended:

..., Den can clinch the 3-way SoV against Pit and Ten [at 10-6] with 3 of the following in wk 15.

SD win (vs. Bal)
Min win (vs. NO)
Chi win (vs Sea) - this game counts twice as Chi win helps Den while Sea loss hurts Pit.
Jac loss (at Atl)
Cin loss (at StL) - both teams beat Cin, but Pit beat Cin twice.
 
It should be:
..., Den can clinch the 3-way SoV against Pit and Ten with Den win (vs. NE) + 3 of the following in wk 15:

SD win (vs. Bal)
Min win (vs. NO)
Chi win (vs Sea) - this game counts twice as Chi win helps Den, while Sea loss hurts Pit.
Jac loss (at Atl)
Cin loss (at StL) - both teams beat Cin, but Pit beat Cin twice.

with all of the following results needed to keep this SoV scenario alive:

Pit loss (at SF)
Ten win (vs. Ind)
Oak win (vs. Det)
NYJ win or tie (at Phi)*

*If NYJ tie instead of win, it does not change any of the above. If they win, there's the potential that they could only tie (instead of win) next week. If they tie, they are forced to win next week to keep the SoV scenario alive. (Given a tie this week, an additional tie next week would not be sufficient to keep the SoV scenario alive.)

Small correction to the previous post on the 3-way, Pit-Den-Ten, SoV:
In the previous post I said that Ten's max win total was 65. It's actually 68 (I forgot to count 2 Ind potential wins twice, and it looks like I crossed out Cle vs. Pit, but forgot to add the Cle win to Ten's SoV - due to Pit needing to lose that game.) Despite actually being to pass Pit's SoV win total, this doesn't change the analysis because Ten still cannot equal Den's min win total of 71.5.





Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 15, 2011 5:38 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Okay, I see my mistake. But why don't they change it and make it right???



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2011 5:25 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Then, if exactly 2.5 of the above go in Denver's favor, Pittsburgh could still tie Denver in SoV. The tie in SoV would be sufficient for Pit since Ten would drop out, and Pit would win the 2-way tiebreaker against Den on common games record.

good expalnation brrett.

I realized the same possible oversight whe nwe were discussing NE/HOU/BAl SOV TB. We are so used to dong 2-team SoVs where we think that a tied SoV automatically goes to SoS. It does on a 2-way, but not a 3-way. a 3-way SoV could only next go to SOS if all 3 teams tied.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2011 5:19 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Also, doublecheck the official NFL tiebreakers, because I believe it does explicitly state that it always reverts to the start of the appropriate tiebreaker.
Not quite. It says all teams revert to step one when a club advances (wins) a tie-breaker.

What brett is quoting is the line that states (under the 3 or more clu TB:

 

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Joe has told us numerous times that this line is basically wrong, they revert each time a team falls out.



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 15, 2011 5:02 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett: I think I lost my mind temporarily when writing my last post, so disregard it, although you were right about what I intended to mean. 
Also, POV is simply Point of View. agn and I were debating over the merit of what to call teams that can affect tiebreakers through SoV, SoS, or 3 way tiebreakers, and I at one point said I was just sharing my POV. I joked that it wasn't the same as SoV, and agn humorously responded that we might then need POV tiebreakers. I said that that is what this blog is, and agn then said that you would win that tiebreaker via h2h. That's POV tiebreakers in a nutshell Laughing. Also, doublecheck the official NFL tiebreakers, because I believe it does explicitly state that it always reverts to the start of the appropriate tiebreaker.

Vito: I wonder why they don't change the tiebreakers to account for h2h record, but without ties, "h2h sweep" and "h2h record followed by h2h sweep" always have the same result. That's not to say that ties can't happen though, and I think the distinction ought to be made. 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2011 4:53 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

great job david



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 15, 2011 4:53 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

By the way, agn and I butted heads 2 years ago, but last year we were practically best friends. Can someone tell me what PoV stands for!
Point of view.

if 2 points of view disagree we will need a POV tiebreaker.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 15, 2011 4:08 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

@bretteis6 - Nice analysis on this.  I saw Joe alluded to PIT not being able to clinch SOV, but I hadn't had the chance to get into the details of it yet.

You and @agn confirmed my suspicions.  Therefore, I need to revisit SEA elim scenarios at 8-7-1 for this week.

Another scenario that could come up is PHI - ATL - CHI - SEA all tied at 8-8.  Right now, PHI is 0-3, CHI 2-0, ATL 2-1, and SEA 1-1, with SEA/CHI pending.  This case is moot because it falls under the h2h sweep category (either CHI 3-0 or PHI is 0-3).  But it's theoretically possible for two teams to be 2-1 and the other two to be 1-2.  I would presume that the two 2-1 teams would revert to a two-team tiebreaker in this case (which would be resolved by h2h).  Chime in if you disagree.

I don't understand why the NFL doesn't just make it offical... "2. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs, applicable only if each team has played every other team involved in the tiebreak)."  The h2h sweep could become tiebreaker #3.  (I'm talking only about wc tiebreakers involving 3 or more teams).



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 15, 2011 3:53 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

AHHH - one thing I forgot to consider in the Pit-Den-Ten 3-way tie: Den could tie Kansas City and also tie either NE or Buf.
If Den tied New England that would remove New England's 10-3 record from their SoV. Since Den plays NE this week, then, given a tie in that game, maybe then, Pit might be able to clinch SoV this week. I doubt it, but I will look into this possibility later.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 15, 2011 3:47 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Jets are technically the home team in wk 16 vs. the Giants. (In my last post, I said "at" NYG by mistake.)


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