Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 11:07 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Your efforts to sequester our discussions of the procedure are futile.
Really!?
  
I will set up a TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES BLOG immediately after the season so we can discuss in open forum and so that we can send out a search party for Lensova.  Cool?

Mission accomplished. Bully for meTongue out



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 11:00 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I guess we should all be pleased Jerry is happy Undecided Hallelujah!!

You had so much success at changing the rules last season, Jerry, with all your clout on the Compettion committee, I look forward to more of the same this off-season.
 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 10:58 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Oh...and agn....there are NOT OTHER BLOGS!  That's only a figment (where is figment?) of your imagination
I didn't say they would be good blogs, or a blog I would even read. Just a suggestion to find another one.
 



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2011 10:08 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Joe, this is a reasonable compromise. I hope that by waiting until the end of the season all of us on here won't lose touch as that is what usually happens. Hopefully, this offseason will be an adequate timeframe to complete those discussions so that procedural stuff doesn't have to drag into the 2012 and subsequent NFL seasons. :) -Cheers -Jerry



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 9:17 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Hey guys....sorry about the radio silence.  Have been on the road all day since posting the tiebreakers last night.  Ugh.

Will get to all the questions soon...but not now.  For now...i'm okay with the procedural/League administration questions related to NFL Tiebreaking Procedures, but would like to focus on Week 16/17 in 2011 season.

I will set up a TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES BLOG immediately after the season so we can discuss in open forum and so that we can send out a search party for Lensova.  Cool?

For the record...i love the passion that Jerry and Brett and others bring to this blog and it would be LESSER blog without them, but have to say that the approach of agn and thenflrules is a welcome sight when perusing the posts.  Having said that...all of the input and feedback here is very much appreciated as I can't possibly hit all the non-clinching stuff each week as quickly as I would like.  

Oh...and agn....there are NOT OTHER BLOGS!  That's only a figment (where is figment?) of your imagination.

Joe    

  

 



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2011 8:59 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Regarding,
There are other blogs.
 AGN, you are not this site's administrator nor are you the moderator of this blog.  Your demeanor here over the past few years can be best characterized as an internet bully.  Your efforts to sequester our discussions of the procedure are futile.  As long as there exists those of us whom have an unwaivering passion to improve the language of the procedure we shall continue to post our views where we feel our discussions are most relevant.  In my opinion I feel that that those discussions get the best attention in the week to week scenario blog entries that Joe posts.  I have no fundamental objection to posting procedure stuff in a dedicated procedure blog.  If Joe would like to steer our discussions in that direction then that is his sole discretion, not yours.  We've all seen the confusion that can ensue when you speak on his behalf.  Prime example:
But I do think the terminology for head-to-head sweep is just plain wrong, since Joe has said in the past that a pure "sweep" is not required where all teams have played each other.
However, I would caution against partitioning the discussion of tiebreaking procedure languge from the scenario discussions since there relationship to one another is so tightly coupled and it would be better not to segregate the audience.  Trust me when I say this, I would love nothing more than to put an end to this tie breaking language discussion, but we can't until the gaping wholes in the language are fixed.  I realize that Joe's intention for this blog is to be solely about scenarios.  But scenarios depend on proper application of the procedure, therefore when Joe created this blog, along came with it the unintended pandora's box of tiebreaking procedural questions.  This blog will be forever coupled with procedural questions so long as there are folks out there that don't know the proper application of the procedure because of broken and misleading langauge within.

AGN if you or anyone else (Except Joe, of course) here cannot stomach the discussion of the tiebreaking language, then I would urge you to avoid reading those posts and just address the posts that interest you.  However, I for one would think that AGN should be grateful for the disscussions on tiebreaking language.  Here is a great example.  The following quote is from a respons AGN sent Brett a few years ago:
Head to head sweep provison has been step one of WC for at least 30 years.
Stop with the inferences and double negatives. The note says when 2 teams are left, not when any team drops out.
Joe has already described the brekdown of 4-way tie for this week, he step thru elimination of South tem and moves forwrd, not reverting.
Your distrust of the tie-breaker formula as written is near-pathological.
So AGN, you're giving Brett a hard time telling him he is near-pathological when in fact he was right all along and you were the one who was wrong.  I truly appreciate Brett's relentless persistence on trying to master his understanding of the procedure.  We all have benefited from that effort, not only us but now media and fans the world over that will read the updated language that was born out those discussions.  But we should not stop there, which is why Brett and I have been trying to pick Joe's brain for him to elaborate fully on what he knows about how we can get tiebreaking language recommendations promoted to agenda items and competition committee votes.  If anyone has any knowledge on this or NFL contacts that can be levereged, please speak to this!!!

Regarding,
They out-source it to Elias already, so why not?
Wrong again AGN.  Brett was talking more about the function of tiebreaking language improvements and or improvements to the intent of the procedure.  I have spoken directly with Elias recently and it was explained to me by them that there role to the NFL regarding tiebreaking is merely to apply the tiebreakers.  As it was explained to me, they don't make recommendations for rule changes.  That's not there function.  I like the idea of a special tiebreaking committee.  

Along with the awesome discussions regarding scenarios, I encourage others (including and probably most importantly Joe) to chime in with there thoughts about the procedure and improvements to the language.

-Cheers
-Jerry

 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 5:40 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

 y'all are going to have to deal with reading questions about it here! Wink
There are other blogs.




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 5:13 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Don't believe there is a "flex" game (or any Sunday night game at all) in Week 17.
Yes, there will be a sunday night game on jan 1st.
The league simply decided not to assign one even temporarily, since it would only be decided on Dec 28th.
Week 17 in its entirety will be revisted on the 27th and 28th not only for the night game but also on other considerations,  for example division/conference teams with play-off aspirations having to all play at the same time.
Example, if PHIL is still the hunt, and NYG-DALL is not the Sunday Night game, both the philly game and DAL-NYG will have to be flexed to the same starting time (likely 4:00).

This is presumably to avoid teams knowing they are in/out tanking against other possible play-off bound teams



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 5:06 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Sorry philly misunderstood your question.

As pillbox said there has not been any 4-way tie in division, at any record.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 5:04 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I know it is possible for all of the AFC West to finish 8-8 and the Chiefs win the division. Under the current schedule format has a division finished this way?
How quickly we forget.

In 2008, SD won the AFCW at 8-8
Last year SEA won the NFCW at 7-9, which is worse than 8-8.





The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com