Blog Entry


Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.



Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss


Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss


Since: Nov 6, 2007
Posted on: December 13, 2011 6:47 am


So Pittsburgh clinches at least the 5 seed with a victory, correct??

Since: Nov 26, 2009
Posted on: December 13, 2011 4:36 am


Well, since we haven't seen Lensova yet this year (unless I missed a comment somewhere), I figured I'd post the possible seedings and seed control list.

* - Team controls this playoff spot
GB - 1*,2
SF - 1,2*,3,4
NO - 2,3*,4,5,6
NYG - 4*,5,6,E
ATL - 2,3,5*,6,E
DET - 5,6*,E
CHI - 5,6,E
DAL - 2,3,4*,5,6,E
ARI - 5,6,E
SEA - 5,6,E
PHI - 4,5,6,E

HOU - 1,2,3*,4
BAL - 1*,2,3,4,5,6,E
NE - 1,2,3*,4,5,6,E
DEN - 1,2,3,4*,5,6,E
PIT - 1,2,3,4,5*,6,E
NYJ - 1,2,3,4,5,6*,E
TEN - 5,6,E
CIN - 6,E
OAK - 2,3,4,6,E
SD - 4,6,E
KC - 4,E

If the order looks off (e.g., Baltimore not first on the list but controlling #1), it's because I followed the current seedings.
There were a few odd ones, such as Philadelphia being able to be 5th seed in a weird specific case (similar to the one where Pittsburgh doesn't make the playoffs). I doubled checked them, although I may have missed something and there's an extra seed somewhere. Hopefully that's not the case.

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