Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2011 4:59 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

agn: Stirring the pot is the farthest thing from my intent. If Joe doesn't want it discussed here, so be it. But I'll add just this: one day (not this year, obviously) the very subject of discussion may become a tie-breaking scenario. If that happens, y'all are going to have to deal with reading questions about it here! Wink


midlifecrisis: There is always a Week 17 flex game airing on NBC. Last year it was St. Louis at Seattle, winner-take-all for the NFC West. The year before the Jets hosted the Bengals in a win-and-in scenario. This year, there may or may not be a definitive win-and-in scenario. NBC is obviously hoping for one in a Giants-Cowboys rematch. Also, Denver vs. KC, if applicable, would work for them given Tebow.


phillysteveinak: There has never been a situation where all 4 teams from the same division finished 8-8 since the current format was adopted in 2002.




Since: Dec 15, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2011 4:33 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

i know it is possible for all of the AFC West to finish 8-8 and the Chiefs win the division. Under the current schedule format has a division finished this way?



Since: Dec 21, 2009
Posted on: December 20, 2011 3:37 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Don't believe there is a "flex" game (or any Sunday night game at all) in Week 17.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 3:10 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Oh, I don't at all mind seeing the head-to-head debate on here.
Joe -- the blog owner -- has asked that we not.
I'd expect the debate is resolvable and could not/should not go on forever!
You'd think it shouldn't. But...



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2011 12:26 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Hello all. Love this site. It's been a long time since I posted!
I'm a frequent reader at this time of year, and just wanted to offer a few random thoughts on this and that!
First off, to all of you who do these calculations, thank you! Apparently it IS rocket science!  :)

Bretteis6, thanks for breaking down the Jets-Bengals SoV situation. Amazing work!

It occurred to me that of the teams that are technically still alive for a playoff spot but haven't clinched yet, the Jets and Bengals appear to be the ONLY teams that, in Week 16, have no chance of clinching OR of being eliminated. (if I am wrong, apologies but this appears correct)

It would be interesting to see what happens if all the playoff spots, other than AFC #6, are clinched going into Week 17. I realize it's extremely unlikely and I am sure the league would hate it, as they'd have to reach to find a SNF flex game and then hope it matters.

As for the debate over what is a head-to-head sweep and/or the wording, if memory serves correct I was a [very small] part of this discussion when it came up a few years ago, and Joe clarified the current rule to me. I have to say: as someone who's really just an interested outsider --- I think the explanation of a head-to-head sweep for three of more clubs is flat-out wrong. I mean, I *get* the principal of it. But, to me, if they all have NOT played each other, then how can you call it "head-to-head"?!  I hope the wording, if not the rule itself, is changed at some point.

I also noticed the inconsistent wording of the common games tiebreakers within the official NFL rules. It is called "common games" but then in note 2 of "Other Tiebreaking Procedures" is called "common opponents." In theory, couldn't those yield two different results? Maybe something else to consider.

Oh, I don't at all mind seeing the head-to-head debate on here. I mean this is about tiebreakers, and I'd expect the debate is resolvable and could not/should not go on forever!

Anyway, just a few random thoughts. Thanks again, everyone, for taking all the time to do this!




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 20, 2011 12:22 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

If Cincinnati and the Jets each win this week, the Jets can gain control of their playoff destiny by clinching SoV outright over Cincinnati (SoV at 10-6 each).

To clinch SoV outright:

The Jets would need 5.5 (or more) of the following 21 results (12 in Week 16, 9 in Week 17). Ties count as half results.

To clinch at least a tie in SoV:

The Jets would need 5.0 results. In the event that SoV does end tied, 2.5 (or more) results from the SoS groups would clinch SoS outright for Cincinnati.

Week 16

SoV results for NYJ (7), SoS results for Cin (8)

(results that simultaneously help NYJ clinch SoV and help Cin clinch SoS)

Mia win (at NE): double result for SoV and SoS

KC win (vs. Oak)

Dal win (vs. Phi)

Ind loss (vs. Hou)

Sea loss (vs. SF)

StL loss (at Pit): double result for SoS

Additional SoV results for NYJ (5)

SD win (at Det)

Buf win (vs. Den)

Jac win (at Ten)

Was win (vs. Min)

Cle loss (at Bal)

(No additional SoS results for Cin)

Week 17

SoV results for NYJ (7), SoS results for Cin (8)

(results that simultaneously help NYJ clinch SoV and help Cin clinch SoS)

Cle loss (vs. Pit): double result for SoV and SoS

SD win (at Oak)

Was win (at Phi)

Ten loss (at Hou)

StL loss (vs. SF)

Buf win (at NE): double result for SoS

Additional SoV results for NYJ (2)

Jac win (vs. Ind)

KC win (at Den)

(No additional SoS results for Cin)

Cincinnati cannot clinch this tiebreaker in Week 16.





Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 11:13 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

They might even be happy to "outsource" tiebreaking issues to us.
They out-source it to Elias already, so why not?



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 11:12 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I would suggest brett and Jerry get a room  ressurect their other blog on TB wording/improvement issues.Innocent



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 20, 2011 10:18 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Agn is correct - it's usually the team involved that is listed, whether that's "lose" or "win". This can get difficult to tell because often there are two teams involved that play each other. I think in that case, it usually is the team that needs to lose that is listed (rather than the team that needs to win).
I think the NFL has the greatest fans in all of sports and I think the fans and media should be rewarded with a procedure that everyone can understand and learn to successfully apply without needing to spend years in here trying to glean the proper application of said procedure.

It's not just here: But all over the world people still ask,  "What is a common game? Do two games against the same common opponent each count? And no matter how many notes are added to the procedure, people still may think that you eliminate only one team at a given step, or that you can rank multiple teams in a division at a single step." The reason "added clarification" is needed and continued to be needed, is because something in the existing language is intrinsically confusing. Without properly fixing up the existing language, no amount of added clarification will ever be enough; the confusion will inevitably continue to exist.

This is not rocket scientist, however we do have a rocket scientist in our presence (Jerry!), and several other incredibly bright people, including Joe himself. If the Competition Committee (or anyone on that committee) read these blogs, I think they, he, or she, would be incredibly proud of our thinking and would gladly defer to our expertise. They might even be happy to "outsource" tiebreaking issues to us. I think from here on forward, we could call ourselves the "Tiebreaking Committee" with Joe Ferreira as our first committee head. All we need then is to get approval from the Competition Committee, at which point we can start making official recommendations for them. First we would clean up the existing language so, like Jerry says, "everyone can gleen the proper application of said procedure". After we achieve this, we can start working on tightening up the application of common games results and head-to-head results in multi-team ties.

Noob once said:
Regarding tiebreakers, efforts should be made to make things more easy for those who do not sleep with the NFL rulebook under their pillow.

I think I speak for nearly everyone here when I say, "I could not agree more."



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 10:11 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

AGN, if Joe would prefer me not to discuss procedure stuff in this blog then he can tell me that directly.
In fact he DID tell all of us that:
From the intro blog for 2011:

@agn....love you brother...and YES...let's keep it to tiebreaker scenario discussions and not what is wrong with the language in the official NFL tiebreaker procedures....PLEASE!
I guess that isn't good enough for Jerry.

But as i pointed out yesterday that blog didnt seem to seem to get as much attention from Joe as we would have liked to have gotten.
Exactly. There is a reason for that.

As to "convention"

From the 2010 Week 14 Scenarios:

PITTSBURGH
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + JAC loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
   2) PIT win + IND loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) PIT win + IND loss or tie + NE win or tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   4) PIT win + IND loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   5) PIT tie + MIA loss or tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss or tie + IND loss
So, when it is the win of a particular team that matters, not the loss by some random team, the convention is to show the result for that team.


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