Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2011 8:22 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

AGN, if Joe would prefer me not to discuss procedure stuff in this blog then he can tell me that directly. Id be more than happy to receive answers to procedural based questions in the tiebreaker discussions blog. But as i pointed out yesterday that blog didnt seem to seem to get as much attention from Joe as we would have liked to have gotten. It's my opinion that the discussion of the tiebreaking procedure is as important as the clinching scenarios themselves. Afterall it's through proper application of the procedure that we are able arrive at the correct scenarios. Furthermore the procedure is still broken as has been pointed out by Brett and myself on numerous occasions. I think the NFL has the greatest fans in all of sports and I think the fans and media should be rewarded with a procedure that everyone can understand and learn to successfully apply without needing to spend years in here trying to gleen the proper application of said procedure. I'd personally like to know how much of a hand Joe had in getting this most recent rev of the procedure updated to clear up the reverting issue. Brett and I would still like to improve the procedure so knowing as much about the chain of events and people involved that brought about this change to a vote is very interesting to us. I appreciate your thoughts on the scenario convention stuff, but no offense, you've been wrong on some pretty critical stuff in the past so if it's true what you said about the convention then I'll let Joe speak to that. In my opinion it seems fine to list the games a team controls as win/tie and to list the games a team does not control as loss/tie. Any thoughts Joe? -Cheers -Jerry



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 7:24 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

 I kept with your ususal convention of listing the teams that need to lose, ....
Actually, the convention is to show the result of the team that is primarily involved. It is ATL's WIN against whomever that is important, not NO' loss.

That is why it is listed ATL Win/tie by convention.

    

 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 7:20 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Now that the week 16 work is complete any chance you might be able to elaborate your thoughts/opinions more on the H2H sweep/round robin situation and get around to answering some of Brett's questions about how to continue improving the procedure?
Joe, keep the wish we both made in Week 12 alive to NOT diescuss this on this blog....please?







Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 20, 2011 4:45 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Joe,

My scenerios are in sync with yours, although I had a slightly different wording on the 4th DET scenario.  I kept with your ususal convention of listing the teams that need to lose, so instead of

4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie
 
I've got mine listed as:

4) CHI loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + SEA loss/tie + NO loss/tie 


Now that the week 16 work is complete any chance you might be able to elaborate your thoughts/opinions more on the H2H sweep/round robin situation and get around to answering some of Brett's questions about how to continue improving the procedure?

- Cheers
- Jerry 



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 20, 2011 2:47 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Always forgetting some detail :-(

Giants are eliminated:
   1) NYG loss + DAL win or tie
   2) NYG tie + DAL win



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 20, 2011 2:30 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

NFC ELIMINATION

  Seattle are eliminated:
   1) SEA loss or tie
   2) DET win or tie + ATL win or tie
   3) DET win or tie + CHI loss or tie
 
  Chiago are eliminated:
   1) CHI loss or tie
   2) ATL win or tie + DET win or tie
 
  Arizona are eliminated:
   1) ARI loss or tie
   2) ATL win or tie + DET win or tie
 
  Dallas cannot clinch a wildcard, must win division:
   1) DAL loss or tie
   2) ATL win or tie




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 20, 2011 1:57 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Here's where we are boys and girls....
I added #4 to DET playoff clinching scenario as you know that DET needs to avoid DAL getting to 9-7 as a Wild Card entry since DAL can get in over DET on conf record with multiple team ties.  However, if the other game results occur (SEA loss/tie, CHI loss/tie and ARI loss/tie), an ATL win or tie (thus avoiding 3-team tie with ATL-DET-DAL) gets DET in the Playoffs with H2H advantage over DAL.

  
NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie
 
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie
 
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 DALLAS COWBOYS
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA FALCONS
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT LIONS
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss
  **BAL has clinched SOV tiebreaker over NE in this scenario

 DENVER BRONCOS
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie




Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2011 10:02 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Great thoughts Brett, Joe the wackiness of week 15 continues as I sit here watching this lighting delay due to the power outage during tonight's MNF game. What is the official tiebreaking process if a game gets cancelled and not rescheduled. Can I assume the procedure is robust enough to handle these scenarios because most everything is based on percentage. What if the cancelled game was a division game or possibly two cancelled division games. Would H2H record no longer be applicable in the division since two cancelled division games would mean that their no longer exists a full round robin. Just some food for thought. Perhaps the thenflrules has some insights of how the tiebreakers were handled for the shortened seasons during the past strikes? -Cheers -Jerry



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2011 8:53 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett, the competition committee should care what WE think on the tiebreaking process, not the other way around.  When I say we I mean all of us here.

That's a very good point. We've definitely spent many more hours thinking about the procedure than they have. Although, I still value their opinions.

To answer one of Jerry's previous questions:

I joined the party here in 2008, so I can't speak about any seasons prior to that. But, when I returned in 2009, the first thing I noticed was that all of my posts and all of Joe's blogs from the year before were gone. This is why, at the end of the 2009 season, I created my own blog to continue our many discussions in 2009. However, the 2009 and 2010 blogs are still here!





Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2011 5:32 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

NYJ are well behind Cin in SoS (in the event that SoV ends tied with each team at 10-6 overall).
So far behind that they cannot clinch in Week 16.

Continuing from the Jets persepective:
NYJ would need 15 of these 17 results to clinch a tie in SoS.
(15.5 results to clinch a win in SoS)

Week 15 (tonight)
Pit loss (vs. SF)

Week 16
NE win (vs. Mia) counts as TWO results; One full result if tied.
Oak win (at KC)
Phi win (at Dal)
Pit loss (vs. Stl) counts as TWO results; One full result if tied.
Hou loss (at Ind)
SF loss (at Sea)

Week 17
NE win (vs. Buf) counts as TWO results; One full result if tied.
Oak win (vs. SD)
Phi win (vs. Was)
Pit loss (at Cle) counts as TWO results; One full result if tied.
Hou loss (vs. Ten)
SF loss (at StL)

Cincinnati would therefore need only 2 of the 17 opposite results to clinch a tie in SoS. (2.5 to clinch a win.)

The NYJ's Strength of Victory (SoV) actually benefits from the opposite of every one of the above games. Thus if the Jets get exactly 5 of the 21 SoV results needed to tie Cincinnati in SoV, most of the combinations will preclude them from being able to tie Cincinnati in SoS. Therefore...

Given the Jets nearly insurmountable deficit in SoS, rather than figuring out which combinations of exactly 5 SoV results will still give them a shot at winning SoS, I think we can assume the Jets will need to win SoV outright by getting at least 5.5 SoV results in their favor.









The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com