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Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Nov 26, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2011 5:08 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

If someone has already done this, I apologize, but I've been working on clinching scenarios for Indy "clinching" the #1 draft pick in week 16.  I've figured that STL will have a stronger SoS than Indy, so the only SoS that comes into play is with MIN.  I'll refer to those as SoS games.  I have IND getting the #1 pick with any of these 5 scenarios:

1) IND loss + MIN win/tie
2) IND loss + 3.5 SoS games
3) IND tie + MIN win + STL win/tie
4) IND tie + MIN tie + STL win/tie + 3 SoS games
5) IND win + MIN win + STL win + 2.5 SoS games

SoS games:
SF over PIT (wk 15)
ARI over CIN (x2)
OAK over KC
MIA over NE
STL over PIT
DEN over BUF
DET over SD

Let me know if you get anything different



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 19, 2011 3:56 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett: that's what I meant by "if all goes right". Using "min" and "max" definitely is confusing though, so next time I will stick with best case. However, had i not wiped out my almost finished post, it would have been made clear i think. Ultimately, in other words, the jets are extremely likely to win SoV and have a definite shot at it next week.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 19, 2011 3:36 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Dave was right *thumbs up*
The checklist was incorrect for that second scenario. But it can be fixed ... I think. In Step 6 it must be "ATL 9-7" instead of "DET not 9-7".

Likewise, I believe DAL holds the tiebreak in the DAL - DET - ATL case on CWLT, where your checklist appears to promote ATL and DET.

Step 1: ATL not 9-7 -> wildcard to ATL (or NO)
no wildcard at this step

Step 2: DET not 9-7 -> wildcard to DET
no wildcard at this step

Step 3: SEA 9-7 and (DET 9-7 or CHI 9-7) -> wildcard to SEA
no wildcard at this step

Step 4: CHI 9-7 -> wildcard to CHI
no wildcard at this step

Step 5: ARI 9-7 -> wildcard to ARI
no wildcard at this step

Step 6: DAL 9-7 and not winning the division and ATL 9-7 -> wildcard to DAL
first wildcard to DAL at this step

Step 7: wildcard to ATL
second wildcard to ATL at this step

Step 8: wildcard to DET


I hope it holds up now...





Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2011 3:32 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


Joe, NYJ can get to min. 67 wins if all goes right by the end of next week. CIN would have max of 60 in that scenario. I accidentally hit alt f4 and wiped out an entire post I almost completed, but I'm 99.9% certain that I'm right about this.
nygsb42,
Since Cin is better off with Buf losing in week 17, then you could count this as a loss in Cin's best case Week 17 scenarioleaving them with 60 wins and NYJ with 67 wins. If this is what you did, then I just got tripped up over the word "max". It would be more accurately stated as,
 "If all goes right in Week 16 for the NYJ, then CIN would have a best case scenario of 60 wins at the end of Week 17."



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2011 3:21 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


Joe, NYJ can get to min. 67 wins if all goes right by the end of next week. CIN would have max of 60 in that scenario. I accidentally hit alt f4 and wiped out an entire post I almost completed, but I'm 99.9% certain that I'm right about this.
Almost correct. If all results go in NYJ's favor in Week 16, they will have 67 wins (at the end of Week 16). However, this includes [Buf win (vs. Den)] which would give Cin a win in Week 16. Therefore, Cin would then be able to get to 61 wins in Week 17. Also, if Cin gets to 61 wins in Week 17, that would include [Buf win (at NE)], which would give NYJ an extra two wins (having beat Buf twice). This would put NJY at a min of 69 wins (at the end of the Week 17).

The "wins only" method works well for some people, but i find the following method easier. Full SoV clinching scenarios are included.

The original question is:
"Can the Jets gain control of their playoff destiny in Week 16 by clinching SoV over Cincinnati?"
(SoV in the case that both teams finish 10-6)

If both teams win out, they'll be 10-6 overall. They will be tied in conference record (at 7-5) and tied in common games record (at 3-2). The next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory record (SoV). If tied in SoV, the next tiebreaker is Strength of Schedule record (SoS).

This post focuses entirely on SoV. The next post will deal with SoS in the event that SoV is tied.

Factoring in as many future results as possible:
NYJ's SoV sits at 58-87.  15 results remaining but 2 are shared* with Cin. So, 13 remaining.
Cin's SoV sits at 55-95.  10 results remaining but 2 are shared* with NYJ. So, 8 remaining.

First, let's look at NYJ's SoV clinching scenario.
NYJ's worst case SoV is 58-100.
Cin's best case SoV is 63-95.
This is a difference of 5 games.
Thus, of the remaining 13+8=21 results, NYJ would need 5 in their favor to clinch a tie in SoV.

Now let's look at Cin's SoV clinching scenario.
Cin's worst case SoV is 55-103.
NYJ's best case SoV is 71-87.
This is a difference of 16 games.
Thus, of the remaining 13+8=21 results, Cin would need 16 in their favor to clinch a tie in SoV.

Here are the remaining games with results given from the Jet's perspective.
The Jets need 5 of the following 21 results to clinch a tie in SoV.
(5.5 to clinch SoV outright - tied results count as 0.5)

Week 16
Mia win
(at NE) counts as TWO results; One full result if tied.
Buf win (vs. Den)
Jac win (at Ten)**
KC win (vs. Oak)
SD win (at Det)
Dal win (vs. Phi)
Was win (vs. Min)
Cle loss (at Bal)
Ind loss (vs. Hou)
Sea loss (vs. SF)
StL loss (at Pit)

Week 17
Buf win (at NE)
Jac win (vs. Ind)**
KC win (at Den)
SD win (at Oak)
Was win (at Phi)
Cle loss (vs. Pit) counts as TWO results; One full result if tied.
Ten loss (at Hou)
StL loss (vs. SF)

Because Cin needs 16 results to clinch a tie in SoV, they cannot clinch in Week 16.

Additional Explanations.
*After factoring in all future results, the next step would be to ignore the future games that affect both team's SoV equally. In this case there aren't any (not exactly, there aren't). But, since NY Jets beat Buf twice while Cincincinati beat Buf once, on NY Jets slate of SoV games, we can reduce [wk 16: Buf vs. Den] and [wk 17: Buf at NE] from counting twice to counting only once. Then, on Cincinati's slate of SoV games, we can ignore these two games entirely. Reducing/ignoring these two games reduces each team's best and worst case SoV records from 160 to 158 total games.  (10 teams)x(16 games per team) = 160 games.

**Both teams beat Jac, but Cin also beat both of Jac's opponents: Ten and Ind. Therefore, each of Jac's future game results have already been factored into Cin's SoV, but remain on the Jet's SoV slate of games.




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2011 3:10 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

dave....

i see what you're saying on his wording for Step 6 in 2nd Scenario.  Perhaps it's:

DAL is 9-7 and not winning division and Either DET is not 9-7 OR both ATL and DET are 9-7?   



Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2011 3:02 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Joe,

You're totally right on the first scenario.  I missed the sweep.

As for the 2nd:
Step 1:  ATL is 9-7, no action.
Step 2:  DET is 9-7, no action.
Step 3:  SEA is not 9-7, no action.
Step 4:  CHI is not 9-7, no action.
Step 5:  ARI is not 9-7, no action.

*Step 6:
 a) DAL is 9-7: TRUE - proceed:
 b) DAL is not winning Division: TRUE - proceed:
 c) DET is not 9-7: FALSE -> no action.

Step 7:  1st WC to ATL.

Repeat, and the 2nd WC is given to DET by same rationale in Step 6.
Or am I overthinking this?

-Dave




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2011 2:07 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Dave....

I think Noob's Checklist holds up under the scenarios you raise (and matches what I have):

But I think I found a couple holes...
DAL, SEA, ATL @ 9-7 (DET already in):  Your checklist promotes ATL, whereas I see SEA on CWLT.
Likewise, I believe DAL holds the tiebreak in the DAL - DET - ATL case on CWLT, where your checklist appears to promote ATL and DET.

In your first scenario with DAL-SEA-ATL (with DET ahead of 9-7), I have DAL as the #6 seed in that case as SEA was SWEPT by DAL and ATL and drops out and DAL beats ATL on conf record.   Noob's chart reflects this below:

Step 1: ATL not 9-7?  (JOE: bypass this as ATL is 9-7)
-> Wildcard to ATL (or NO)

Step 2: DET not 9-7?  (JOE: DET is not 9-7 so one WILD CARD goes to DET)
-> Wildcard to DET

Step 3: SEA 9-7 and (DET 9-7 or CHI 9-7)?  (JOE: SEA is 9-7 BUT (!) neither DET nor CHI are 9-7 so bypass this)
-> Wildcard to SEA

Step 4: CHI 9-7?  (JOE: CHI not 9-7 so bypass this)
- > Wildcard to CHI

Step 5: ARI 9-7?  (JOE: ARI not 9-7 so bypass this)
-> Wildcard to ARI

Step 6: DAL 9-7 and not winning the division and DET not 9-7?  (JOE: DAL is 9-7 and DET is not 9-7 so WILD CARD to DAL)
-> Wildcard to DAL

Step 7:
-> Wildcard to ATL

Step 8:
-> Wildcard to DET

In your 2nd example...i also have DAL as a WILD CARD (in addition to ATL as 2nd WILD CARD) but I think Noob's checklist reflects this as well if you walk through the steps.  Perhaps the "ATL not 9-7?" and "DET not 9-7?" is confusing you?




Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:50 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Tarheels: assuming they tie at 10-6, cin has a min 55 wins and the jets have min 58. Cin has only 8 matchups to catch up though, and the jets have 12 or so to add to their lead. Given the usual improbability of SoV wins due to the fact that both teams beat mostly weak teams which lose to most teams, the jets have a very good shot to win SoV over Cincy at 10-6. At 9-7, Cincy has a slightly better shot, but that tiebreaker is less likely to occur at 9-7 because oakland or Tennessee will likely be in it, and oak owns SoV over the jets and Cincy



Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:40 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I updated my Divisional Tiebreakers with the results of this week's games - and they're much simpler now.  Only the AFCW still has divergent outcomes...

NFCE:  (PHI –) NYG – DAL in any tie.
8-8:  
DAL-NYG:  NYG (H2H), DAL-PHI: PHI (H2H), DAL-PHI-NYG: PHI (H2H elim DAL;  DWLT over NYG)
8-7-1: NYG (H2H)
9-7:  NYG (H2H)
NFCW:  SEA in any tie.
8-8:  SEA (H2H or SoV)
8-7-1: SEA (H2H)
NFCS:  ATL in any tie.
11-5:  ATL (DWLT)
NFCN:  CHI in any tie.
9-7: CHI (DWLT)
CHI @ 9-7, DET @ 8-6-2: CHI (DWLT)

AFCS:  No ties possible.  HOU.
AFCE:  No ties possible.  NE.
AFCN:  BAL – PIT (– CIN) in any tie.
AFCW:
9-7:
SD-DEN: DEN (DWLT or CG)
OAK-DEN:
a)    DEN lose 16 – DEN (CG)
b)    DEN win 16 – OAK (DWLT)
8-7-1:
SD-OAK:  OAK (H2H)
SD-DEN:  DEN (DWLT or CG)
DEN-OAK:
a)    DEN tie 16 – OAK (DWLT)
b)    DEN tie 17 – DEN (CG)
DEN-OAK-SD:
a)    DEN tie 16 – OAK (DWLT)- (DEN –SD (CG or DWLT))
b)    DEN tie 17 – (DEN-OAK (CG))-SD (DWLT)
9-7:
SD @ 9-7, DEN @ 8-6-2: DEN (DWLT)
OAK @ 9-7, DEN @ 8-6-2: OAK (DWLT)

8-8:
KC-DEN: KC (DWLT)
KC-DEN-OAK: KC (H2H)-DEN (CG)-OAK
KC-DEN-SD: KC (DWLT)-DEN (CG) - SD
KC-DEN-SD-OAK: KC (DWLT)-(DEN - OAK (CG)) – SD (DWLT)
DEN-OAK-SD:  DEN (CG) – SD (CWLT) – OAK
DEN @ 8-8, SD, OAK @ 7-7-2: OAK (H2H)-DEN (DWLT) - SD


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