Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Dec 16, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:31 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Noob -
I love the checklist idea.

But I think I found a couple holes...
DAL, SEA, ATL @ 9-7 (DET already in):  Your checklist promotes ATL, whereas I see SEA on CWLT.
Likewise, I believe DAL holds the tiebreak in the DAL - DET - ATL case on CWLT, where your checklist appears to promote ATL and DET.

Regards,

-Dave



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2011 11:24 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

With so many teams eliminated LAST week, it's really amazing that not one team was eliminated this week.  Very strange occurance indeed.


Yes.  Very strange indeed.  There were 22 teams still alive after Week 14, and we still have 22 teams in contention now with two weeks to play.  This is the first week that a team was not eliminated in the last five weeks of a season since 2002 Week 15.  Also, 22 teams is the most we have had at this point since 2006 when there were 24 teams still alive with two weeks left.

By the way Joe, you described this week's games as WACKY.  I couldn't describe it better.  Yesterday was only the third time in NFL history that an undefeated team lost and a winless team won on the same day (at least 11 games into a season):

1953 Week 12 (12/13/1953):

CLE 11-0 (L, at Phi 42-27)
CHI CARDS 0-10-1 (W, at Chi. Bears 24-17)

1984 Week 12 (11/18/1984):

MIA 11-0 (L, at SD 34-28 OT)
BUF 0-11 (W, DAL 14-3)

2011 Week 15 (12/18/2011):

GB 13-0 (L, at KC 19-14)
IND 0-13 (W, TEN 27-13)  




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2011 11:01 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Noob:  Nice job on that checklist for the potential 9-7 NFC wild cards.  As I look back on my ATL and DET clinching scenarios, I'm thinking I can add a NYG loss/tie to Both ATL and DET, as that would assure the NFC East for DAL at 9-7.

In the AFC, we could have a similar situation at 9-7 for the last wild card.  Potential wild cards at 9-7 are NYJ, CIN, OAK, DEN, SD, and TEN.  However, only one of OAK/SD can be 9-7 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2011 9:50 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

So you can see why myself and others had been lead to believe that you too shared this position that the correct course of action is to apply H2H record for when there is a full H2H round robin in the absense of a pure sweep.
database,

that TOO was my understanding -- even though I did not embrace it as you and brett had -- that according to Joe, "practice" was to use record if they had all played.

But Joe seems to say that his verification with the League and Elias was that this was not the practice, and with nflrules historical perspective, that really any confusion over this was corrected 30- to 40 years ago with successive explanatory notes.




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2011 9:40 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I have more to say about the procedure and the need to continue updating it, but I won't tangent into that in this post.

We'll see.
Hope you find some work soon, Jerry.



Since: Mar 21, 2008
Posted on: December 19, 2011 8:04 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I know that CIN can still catch NYJ in regards to SoV, I think its -11 now, and they'll pick up some by wining the last 2, but realistically what are the chances they beat the Jets in SoV?

Thanks.
Steve 



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2011 7:24 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

To Joe and the others,

I appologize for my posts being more related to the tie-breaking procedure rather than the clinching scenarios.  However, this is the only forum that gets the attention that these questions deserve.  I remember you created a dedicated blog entry two years ago to move all the procedural questions away from the week to week clinching scenrio discussions.  In theory this was a great idea, and no doubt a lot of very good stuff got discussed in that thread, however there were a lot of questions that were left unanswered and some perhaps misguided advice.  Of particular interest were the following: On December 22, 2009 4:02 am KellynMatt asked you Joe the following.  

Joe,

I'll try to not ask any questions about re-seeding, but I am curious about one thing.  If there are 4 teams tied for a wildcard (ie, one team from each division lines is in the tie-breaker and we have broken any and all ties within the division), and let's say that all four teams have all played one another.  Does that have a bearing on anything?  If two teams are 2-1 against the other teams and the other two are 1-2 would the step be skipped entirely?

This is essentially a H2H round robin question, is it not?  Unfortunately it never got answered.  Then on December 24, 2009 12:12am KellynMatt again asked a similar question.

Joe et al,

If there are 4 teams tied for a wildcard (ie, one team from each division lines is in the tie-breaker and we have broken any and all ties within the division), and let's say that all four teams have all played one another.  Does that have a bearing on anything?  If two teams are 2-1 against the other teams and the other two are 1-2 would the step be skipped entirely?  It says head-to-head sweep, but I thought I had heard that if everyone had played everyone else that would be used as a step.  Is this correct?


Unfortunately, no one again responded to KellynMatt's question.

Then there was the ongoing discussion between Brett and AGN regarding SOV and also the process for reverting to step 1.  Here is an excerpt from one of AGN's posts, sent on December 22, 2009 7:16 am

But I do think the terminology for head-to-head sweep is just plain wrong, since Joe has said in the past that a pure "sweep" is not required where all teams have played each other.


Then there is the famous post from Brett on New Years day 2010 @ 10:21 pm

3) In the format for 3 or more clubs, it refers specifically to "head-to-head sweeps", but makes no mention of head-to-head games counting in the absence of a sweep. Yet we all agree that it is inferred that if each team has played each of the others, head-to-head record would in fact count, even in the absence of sweep.


So you can see why myself and others had been lead to believe that you too shared this position that the correct course of action is to apply H2H record for when there is a full H2H round robin in the absense of a pure sweep.  And like I've said before, I know that you can't possibly respond to every single post, but had you been paying closer attention to these dialouges and maybe answered KellynMatt's question or corrected Brett or AGN misunderstanding (if that is in fact what it was) then we wouldn't be having this discussion because any possible confusion regarding this H2H step could have been layed to rest then.

Having said that I believe that resorting to H2H record in the presence of a full round robin and absence of a sweep is what we should be doing.  Because it doesn't make sense to advance a division team under the same circumstance but not a conference team.  Perhaps you too share this same opinion.  Mabye that is what you shared previously (your opinion) and Brett and AGN ran with it as though it was proper procedure, who knows, since I can't go back into the CBS blog entries past 2009.

I have more to say about the procedure and the need to continue updating it, but I won't tangent into that in this post.

-Cheers
-Jerry 




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2011 3:03 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Noob....I like the Checklist...clever approach.

Also like that with the 2 teams at 9-7 and others needing 2 wins to get to 9-7, I don't have to worry about tie games.  ;-) 



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 19, 2011 2:26 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Sorry, forget to include CHI while writing this down:

To check for the NFC wildcards follow the steps until you have two wildcard winners.

Step 1: ATL not 9-7?
-> Wildcard to ATL (or NO)

Step 2: DET not 9-7?
-> Wildcard to DET

Step 3: SEA 9-7 and (DET 9-7 or CHI 9-7)?
-> Wildcard to SEA

Step 4: CHI 9-7?
- > Wildcard to CHI

Step 5: ARI 9-7?
-> Wildcard to ARI

Step 6: DAL 9-7 and not winning the division and DET not 9-7?
-> Wildcard to DAL

Step 7:
-> Wildcard to ATL

Step 8:
-> Wildcard to DET

Let me know your thoughts... again...



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 19, 2011 2:23 am
 

NFC Wildcard Tiebraker checklist

Just found out, that the checklist may be much shorter.

To check for the NFC wildcards follow the steps until you have two wildcard winners.

Step 1: ATL not 9-7?
-> Wildcard to ATL (or NO)

Step 2: DET not 9-7?
-> Wildcard to DET

Step 3: SEA 9-7 and (DET 9-7 or CHI 9-7)?
-> Wildcard to SEA

Step 4: ARI 9-7?
-> Wildcard to ARI

Step 5: DAL 9-7 and not winning the division and DET not 9-7?
-> Wildcard to DAL

Step 6:
-> Wildcard to ATL

Step 7:
-> Wildcard to DET

Let me know your thoughts...




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