Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:59 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

GW....not a bad start...and glad you caught SEA and ARI for DET...but you need to look at DAL at 9-7 as well and not winning East.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:53 am
 

NFC 9-7 tiebreakers check list

 

If there are two vacant 9-7 wild card spots in the NFC after week 17, this checklist should do it.

Step 1:
Check if CHI are 9-7 -> CHI are in
Step 2:
Check if SEA or ARI are 9-7 -> SEA or ARI are in

If there is at least one remaining spot, continue:
Step 3:
Check if DAL are 9-7 and not winning the division -> DAL are in

If there is a remaining spot, continue:
Step 4:
ATL are in

If ATL (or NO) are the #5 seed and DET are 9-7:

Step 1:
Check if SEA are 9-7 -> SEA are in

If there is a remaining spot, continue:
Step 2:
Check if CHI are 9-7 -> CHI are in

If there is a remaining spot, continue:
Step 3:
Check if ARI are 9-7 -> ARI are in

If there is a remaining spot, continue:
Step 4:
DET are in

If DET are the #5 seed and ATL are 9-7:

Step 1:
Check if CHI are 9-7 -> If SEA are 9-7, SEA are in, otherwise CHI are in.

If there is a remaining spot, continue:
Step 2:
Check if ARI are 9-7 -> ARI are in

If there is a remaining spot, continue:
Step 3:
Check if DAL are 9-7 and not winning the division -> DAL are in

If there is a remaining spot, continue:
Step 4:
ATL are in
 

I hope, that hould do the trick




Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:44 am
 

NFC 9-7 tiebreakers check list




Since: Dec 7, 2011
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:29 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I don't think what you have is sufficient for DET or ATL because of the possibility that DAL could finish 9-7 and not win the NFC East.  This would occur if both DAL and NYG won this week and NYG beat DAL in Week 17.

DAL would win H2H with ATL at 9-7.  Thus, in addition to what you have (CHI loss/tie + ARI loss/tie), ATL would need either a DAL loss/tie or NYG loss/tie.  A DAL loss this week means DAL only gets to 9-7 by beating NYG next week, which would clinch the division for DAL (a tie makes a 9-6-1 or 8-6-2 DAL a division winner as well).  If DAL wins, a NYG loss/tie would clinch the division for DAL.  So I have the following for clinching scenario for ATL:
1. Win/tie
2. CHI loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + DAL loss/tie
3. CHI loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + NYG loss/tie

Although DET would win a H2H against DAL, DAL could use ATL to jump DET in the event all three teams finish 9-7.  To prevent this, DET needs a DAL loss/tie or NYG loss/tie (for the same reasons as above) or an ATL win/tie (preventing the 3-way tie).  So I have hte following clinching scenario for DET
1. Win/tie
2. CHI loss/tie + SEA loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + DAL loss/tie
3. CHI loss/tie + SEA loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + NYG loss/tie
4. CHI loss/tie + SEA loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + ATL win/tie



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:20 am
 

NFC 9-7 tiebreakers

In the NFC the picture is somewhat clear. If both, DET and ATL win at least of their remaining two games, all other wild card contenders are eliminated. But once either DET and/or ATL finish 9-7, the picture gets far more complicated for the #5 and/or #6 seed.

NYG 9-7:
division winners.

DAL 9-7:
check first: division winners if NYG lose to NYJ in week 16 or to DAL in week 17.
if both DET and ATL are 9-7, they are in unless two out of CHI, SEA, ARI are also 9-7.
if only ATL are 9-7, they are in unless CHI or ARI are also 9-7.
if only DET are 9-7, they are out.

DET 9-7:
if ATL are 10-6 or better, they are out if any team other than DAL are also 9-7.
if ATL are 9-7, they are out

CHI 9-7:
if both DET and ATL are 9-7, they are in.
if either DET or ATL are 9-7, they are in unless SEA are also 9-7.

ATL 9-7:
if DET are 10-6 or better, they are out if any team other than SEA are also 9-7.
if DET are 9-7, they are out if two or more out of DAL, CHI, SEA, ARI are also 9-7.

SEA 9-7:
if both DET and ATL are 9-7, they are in
if only DET are 9-7, they are in
in only ATL are 9-7, they are in if CHI are also 9-7

ARI 9-7:
if both DET and ATL are 9-7, they are in
if either DET or ATL are 9-7, they are in unless CHI are also 9-7








Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:04 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Ok guys, so is this how it looks after the discussions:

DAL clinches NFC East with:
1. Win + NYG loss/tie
2. Tie + NYG loss

NO clinches NFC South with
1. win/tie

GB clinches the #1 seed in the NFC with:
1. SF loss/tie

ATL clinches a playoff spot with
1. win/tie
2. CHI loss/tie + AZ loss/tie (ATL has h2h over SEA)

DET Clinches playoff spot with:
1. Win/tie
2. CHI loss/tie + SEA loss/tie + AZ loss /tie   &nb
sp;    

DEN clinches AFC West with:
1. Win + OAK loss
2. Tie + OAK loss + SD loss

NE can clinch a first round bye with:
1. Win + HOU loss/tie

What I see with NYG is that NYG can only make the playoffs as a division winner.  NYG has a terrible 4-7 NFC record, which puts NYG out of any possible wild card ties.  Also, only one of SEA or AZ can make the playoffs as SEA and AZ play each other in week 17. 

How does this look?   



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2011 1:02 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Earlier in the Week 15 Blog I mentioned that we had 1(of 32) of the Non-Common games decided.  That was Cleveland @ Indianapolis.  That game was decided before this week.  When I made my comment, we had another Non-Common game decided already.  But that game got scheduled after Jacksonville lost on Thursday.  That new Non-Common game for next year is Cincinnati @ Jacksonville.  This game is now on the 2012 schedule because the Bengals have clinched 3rd place in the AFC North and Jacksonville clinched 3rd in the AFC South and those 2 divisions aren't scheduled to play a full round robin next year.

Clinched Places in Each Division:

NFC East---no places have been clinched, but some can be in Week 16

NFC North---2 and 3 to be decided between the Lions and Bears(can be decided in Week 16)

1---Green Bay
4---Minnesota

NFC South---no places have been clinched, but some can be in Week 16

NFC West---2 and 3 to be decided between the Seahawks and Cardinals(to be decided on Week 17)

1---San Francisco
4---St. Louis

AFC East---Miami can clinch 3rd with a win and a Bills loss in Week 16, thus handing the Bills 4th(and to think they led the division this year)

1---New England
2---N.Y. Jets

AFC North---1 and 2 to be decided between Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  This can be decided in Week 16 if the Steelers win tomorrow and next week and if Baltimore loses to Cleveland next week.

3---Cincinnati
4---Cleveland

AFC South---all decided here

1---Houston
2---Tennessee
3---Jacksonville
4---Indianapolis

AFC West---most spots can be decided next week OR it's very possible that NONE of the positions will be decided until Week 17.  Could be a very fun Week 17 in the AFC West if all goes perfect in Week 16.   :)



Since: Dec 17, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2011 12:41 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Don't forget about Arizona: by winning both remaining games, they could still win a two-way tiebreak with ATL or DET based on conference record (7-5 to 6-6 in both cases).



Since: Nov 26, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2011 12:37 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

And disregard my own #3, as oak is playing kc, so they can't both lose 



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2011 12:36 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

PITreed

I got you on the OAK SD game in week 17, but your #3 scenario doesn't work as an OAK loss = KC win.  OAK and KC play each other next week.  What's even crazire is that KC  can win the AFC West in a 4-way tie at 8-8 based on division record tiebreaker, which is the exact same thing as a 4-way h2h between all the teams. 


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com