Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Nov 26, 2010
Posted on: December 19, 2011 12:19 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Denver doesn't need both oak and SD to lose if they win. They play each other week 17, so they can't both end up with 9 wins.  And Den will have the common games tb over SD if it ends up Den & SD tied at 9-7.  So if Den wins, they only need Oak to lose to clinch.

I have Denver's division clinching scenarios as follows:

1. Win + OAK loss/tie
2. Tie + SD loss/tie + OAK loss
3. OAK loss + SD loss + KC loss/tie 



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2011 12:16 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Oops, I need to change DET to:
1. win/tie
2. CHI loss/tie + SEA loss/tie


CHI can win the div record tiebreaker over DET at 9-7.  SEA loss would be neccessary as SEA would beat DET in conference record 8-4 to 6-6     



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 19, 2011 12:08 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Just some quick scenarios for week 16:

NFC:

DAL clinches NFC East with
1. Win + NYG loss/tie
2. Tie + NYG loss

NO clinches NFC south with:
1. Win/tie

ATL clinches playoff spot with
1. win/tie
2. CHI loss

GB clinches #1 seed with
1. SF loss/tie  

DET clinches playoff spot with:
1. win/tie
2. SEA loss

AFC:

DEN clinches AFC West with:
1. Win + SD loss + OAK loss      

PIT now has control of the #1 seed in the AFC.

Let me know how this looks.     
;     &nbs
p;    



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 18, 2011 10:25 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

With so many teams eliminated LAST week, it's really amazing that not one team was eliminated this week.  Very strange occurance indeed.

Oops......had that slightly wrong on the last post. 



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 18, 2011 9:53 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

With so many teams eliminated this week, it's really amazing that not one team was eliminated this week.  Very strange occurance indeed.  That's mainly because the teams that had a chance for elimination. came through and won this week. 

With the Giants losing and the Falcons and Lions winning this week, the Giants can only make the playoffs by winning their division.  They can accomplish this with either 2 wins or with a win next week(over the Jets) and a Eagles win over Dallas next week and then the Giants would simply just need to tie the Cowboys in week 17. 

Which means that if the Giants win next week over the Jets, the Eagles are eliminated.




Since: Oct 21, 2008
Posted on: December 18, 2011 9:50 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Required for San Diego to win AFC West if they lose tonight:
1-2. SD beats OAK, DET to finish 8-8.
3-4. DEN loses to KC, BUF to finish 8-8.
5. OAK beats or ties KC to finish 8-8 or 7-8-1; KC finishes 7-9 or 7-8-1.

If KC beats OAK, they'd have a superior division record and win the division, and we can't have that.
Now we have a tie for the division. SD and DEN (and OAK if in the mix) all split with all other teams in division, so head-to-head and division record are inconclusive. Common games would eliminate Oakland, as they won both of their uncommon games, while Denver and San Diego would have lost one each. So the tie moves to SOV. Crossing out like wins, we're left with:
Denver = NY Jets + Cincinnati + Chicago = 23 + up to 6 more
San Diego = Buffalo + Jacksonville + Detroit = 18 + up to 6 more
We have BUF > DEN (+1 for SD) and SD > DET (0 for SD), so that means we need all the other results to work perfectly.

6-7. NYJ lose to MIA, NYG
8-9. CIN loses to BAL, ARZ
10-11. CHI loses to GB, MIN
12. BUF beats NE
13-14. JAX beats IND, TEN
15. DET beats GB

Now SOV is tied, and we move to SOS. The only unlike games are
Denver = Cincinnati + Tennessee = 15 + TEN vs HOU
San Diego = Baltimore + Jacksonville = 17 + BAL vs CLE
So San Diego would win the division if those 15 results occur. The ONLY place with any margin for error is that KC is allowed to tie OAK instead of losing.




Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 18, 2011 8:24 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Joe, NYJ can get to min. 67 wins if all goes right by the end of next week. CIN would have max of 60 in that scenario. I accidentally hit alt f4 and wiped out an entire post I almost completed, but I'm 99.9% certain that I'm right about this.



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 18, 2011 8:03 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Joe,

I agree the language is quite clear, which is why I orginally coded my logic to use only true sweeps.

Joe, I admit that you and I have never had direct discussions on this H2H matter, but I am still confused then why I can find posts within this blog from 2009 where Brett and AGN refer to your having said that you would apply the logical inference of Best Combined H2H record in instances where a round robin occured.  I know you can't possibly respond to ever post that is made on here so when they cited your having said that you would apply H2H record for round robins, I took their word on faith.  Did Brett, AGN and others simply misunderstand you.  I know no one at this blog would intentionally mislead one another.  So perhaps this has been a gigantic misunderstanding.  

I guess it really doesn't matter who said what and when.  All I care about is what are we going to do if this scenario ever rears its ugly head.  
We should push for another rule update to clear up this matter.  It is inconsistent to advance a division team with the best H2H record but not advance a conference team on best H2H record when a full round robin exists.  One could try to make an argument of their not being enough H2H conference games to apply H2H record for round robins, but then that doesn't make sense either since a sweep can advance a team with even less H2H games having been played.  I feel like I've made some pretty strong arguements on this.  If I had unilateral power over this matter we would be updating the tiebreaking language to address this concern.

I own some Green Bay Packer stock (still sad about the loss today), so I'm gonna go ahead and cast my vote for this update to the H2H language for conference ties with 3 or more teams.  Anyone else care to cast their vote.  

On a side note, It's my suspicion that the representative of the competition committee are not as well versed on these fine details of the tiebreaking process.  In my opinion there are few people that are more qualified to weigh in on these tiebreaking language changes then those who have been participating in this blog over the past few years.

Brett, the competition committee should care what WE think on the tiebreaking process, not the other way around.  When I say we I mean all of us here.

Joe or anyone else who has knowledge on this, can you please share with us everything you know relating to how one goes about promoting a recommended change to the tiebreaking procedure to an agenda item that can be voted on at those competition committee.

-Cheers
-Jerry
 



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 18, 2011 7:36 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

have one for you guys to play with....

seeing who controls destiny with NYJ-CIN...comes down to SOV with NYJ leading now.   Need to know if they can clinch that next week (knowing CIN could have big win wk 17 over BAL).




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 18, 2011 5:04 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Jerry....

I have always used H2H sweep with tiebreakers for 3 or more teams for Wild Card.  Nothing else.  I believe last year I said I can see the argument you might make, but the language is pretty clear it's a SWEEP needed.

By the way, the Competition Committee is the Committee that decides on rule changes and their recommendations on voted on by the "membership" which are the League Owners or their designated representatives.


Joe    


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com