Blog Entry

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Comments

Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 18, 2011 4:19 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Quick order of teams after 1pm ET games Wk 15:

AFC = BAL, NE, HOU, DEN, PIT, NYJ, CIN, OAK, TEN, SD, KAN

NFC = GB, NO, SF, DAL, ATl, DET, SEA, CHI, NYG, ARZ, PHI



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 18, 2011 2:03 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

WACKY Week 15 already!!!

Cam and Panthers dominated the Texans....

NY Giants are sleep-walking through Skins game and getting beat bad...

and Chiefs dominated the Pack on both sides of the ball.

WOW.   Stay tuned...    &nb
sp;  



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 18, 2011 1:15 pm
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

brettis6 said:

I would be very interested in obtaining the current opinions of the 1972 authors regarding our current head-to-head argument. I do care about if and what they thought about this in 1972, but I care more about what they think about our argument today in 2011-2012.
Just to take things to the lighter side for a moment.  Most of the 1972 authors are probably OLD now.  I was 4 in 1972 and I wasn't compiling NFL tiebreaker scenarios then. ;)   Lets just say these men(and perhaps women) were 40 at the time.  That means they're 79 now.  Probably either have Alzheimer's or are pushing up daisies.  :)

Congrats on your degree Brett.  Good luck to you in the job hunt.  Now on to week 15's games.  Go Pack Go........lets make it 14-0.

Jeff  Cool



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 18, 2011 11:27 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Another more easily possible tied game only scenario would be if the eagles win today and so do the giants and Seahawks and cardinals, the eagles would have to win out, hope DET loses out, hope CHI loses to MIN and one other game, hope SEA and ARI each lose next week, and hope SEA and ARI TIE in week 17. All the results necessary for this scenario actually could go right today, unlike a DEN tie (well, who knows what God could do for tebow...)



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 18, 2011 10:45 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Just so that we're all on the same page....

We are rooting for Pit loss + NYJ win or tie + Oak win + Den tie.
That way Pit does not clinch today and the only scenario keeping them out is the possibility of a wk 17 [KC at Den] tied game.





Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 18, 2011 9:56 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett: I think the logic is ideal there; it's just a matter of whether it's considered enough games to make a legit distinction on. But if one h2h game is enough to decide a wc tiebreak, and one game is enough to decide who advances to the next round of the playoffs, I think you are exactly right. It would definitely be interesting to see the evolutions on the POVs though from the authors' standpoint and the NFL's standpoint. It is pretty clear from the last few days of this blog that everybody has their own...



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 18, 2011 9:53 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

So, summing up,, Joe, Elias, and NFL all agree that sweep means sweep.

Nflrules has shown that while wording in the past allowed for best record instead of sweep, they tightened this up 40 years ago, and have not changed it since.

The wording changes also seem to indicate that the such a TB step would not be deciding factor unless 1 team swpet or was swept, precluding the various 4-way 2-1/1-2 scenarios that have ben discussed.

 



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 18, 2011 9:46 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I think trying to figure out intent from a 1972 printed sentence is about as fruitless as trying to figure out the correct way to apply a tiebreaker when the current language doesn't spell out exactly what to do.

I would be very interested in obtaining the current opinions of the 1972 authors regarding our current head-to-head argument. I do care about if and what they thought about this in 1972, but I care more about what they think about our argument today in 2011-2012. For our argument's sake, I think it would be more relevant what the framers would think/decide today. Next would be to ask the Competition Committee what they prefer today. It would be great if we could find evidence in the form of "prior intent" - but if we can't find this, then the only thing that matters is what the Committee thinks today.

From a logical standpoint, our best argument I believe is the following:

For 3-way ties:
Since [2-1-1, 2-2-0, 1-2-1] can decide a division winner, then [1-0-1, 1-1-0, 0-1-1] should be able to determine a Wild Card winner.

For 4-way ties:
Since [3-2-1, 3-3-0, 3-3-0, 2-3-1] can decide a division winner, then [2-0-1, 2-1-0, 1-2-0, 0-2-1] should be able to determine a Wild Card winner.
AND
Since [4-2, 4-2, 2-4, 2-4] narrows down a division winner to two eligible teams, then [2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2] should be able to narrow down a Wild Card winnner to two eligible teams.







Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 18, 2011 8:15 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Database, I definitely like your argument. However, I think there is another way to look at it. The 1972 rewording says to use h2h record when applicable, and then defines applicable. It does not cover all mathematically applicable circumstances, but from a logic standpoint, it is complete. If whoever wrote this did not think about ties, these mean the same thing. Thus, I'm not so sure that this would prove intent for h2h record. The use of it in a division is also different I think because each team plays 4 h2h games in a 3 way tie. Thus the bigger set is considered a more powerful determinant. In 2 way, the set is only two games, but to win that, a team must beat its opponent and not lose to it, whereas in 3 way wc h2h sweep, a team can beat one team and tie another. I think your argument is a strong one, I just wanted to provide an alternate angle.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 18, 2011 5:01 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

database,

The key thing to remember is that all the tiebreakers are trying to assess who best among the collection of teams not who is dominant over each team in the collection individually.

In the 2-0-1 scenario, Team A is without any doubt the best among the collection of tied teams. Regardless if one factors in the missing 6th match between B and D or not. They are best based on all 5 games actually played.

But as you said, it's a more of a philosophical debate to have the H2H tiebreaker within the conference not following the usual logic of all other tiebreakers steps. It's a philosophy like "mininum of four" in common games. Why four? Could be three, five, nine, whatever. No logic behind that. So, yes, that's how it's works. The philosophy behind that is not to check for potential outcomes of games never played.






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