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WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 25, 2011 11:48 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

The correction Joe pointed out

 Seeds 1,2, and 5
Three games could have an impact on these seeds.  New England-Buffalo, Baltimore-Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh-Cleveland.

If New England wins, they are the #1 seed.
  • In this scenario, if Baltimore wins or Pittsburgh loses, Baltimore is the #2 seed (and Pittsburgh is the #5 seed).
  • If Cincinnati beats Baltimore and Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh is the #2 seed (and Baltimore is the #5 seed).
If New England loses
  • If Baltimore wins, they are the #1 seed (and New England is the #2 seed and Pittsburgh is the #5 seed).
  • If Baltimore loses and Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh is the #1 seed (and New England is #2 and Baltimore is #5).
  • If Baltimore loses and Pittsburgh loses, New England is the #1 seed (and Baltimore is #2 and Pittsburgh is #5).
HOUSTON IS THE #3 SEED

Seed #4

If Denver wins, they are the #4 seed.
If Denver loses, then Oakland is the #4 seed if they win.
If Denver and Oakland both lose, Denver is the #4 seed.

Now for the wackiness that is the #6 seed. If Cincinnati wins, they are the #6 seed.  But if Cincinnati loses (to a motivated Baltimore team), that is when the craziness ensues.
  • If Oakland (and Denver), NY Jets, and Tennessee all win, I have that Oakland would be #6 seed on SoV*
  • If Oakland (and Denver) and Tennessee all win, I have that Tennessee would be #6 seed on Common Opponents*
  • If Oakland (and Denver) and NY Jets all win, I have that Oakland would be #6 seed on head to head over the Jets*
  • If NY Jets and Tennessee both win, I have that Tennessee would be #6 seed on Common Opponents*
  • If Oakland (and Denver) only win (Tenn and Jets lose), Oakland would be the #6 seed on Conference Record
  • If NY Jets only win ([Oak or Den] and Tenn lose), I have that NY Jets would be #6 seed on Conference Record
  • If Tennessee only wins ([Oak or Den] and Jets lose), I have Cincinnati as #6 seed on head to head over Tennessee
 *-Cincinnati would be eliminated at Conference Record in the first step

Kind of crazy that if Cincinnati loses, neither Oakland, nor Tennessee, nor NY Jets "control their destiny."  If they all win Oakland is in, but if the NY Jets lose, Oakland is not in but Tennessee is.  



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 25, 2011 11:40 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I totally missed the Atlanta winning the division scenario, sorry

Seed 1—Green Bay

Seed 2
  • If San Francisco wins against St. Louis or New Orleans loses one game, San Francisco is the #2 seed.
  • If San Francisco loses to St. Louis and New Orleans wins out, New Orleans is the #2 seed
Seed 3
  • If New Orleans loses one game or San Francisco wins, New Orleans will be the #3 seed
  • If San Francisco loses to St. Louis and New Orleans wins out, San Francisco is the #3 seed
  • If Atlanta wins out and New Orleans loses out, Atlanta is the #3 seed
Seed 4
  • The winner of the NY Giants-Dallas game will be the #4 seed
Seed 5
  • If New Orleans loses the division, New Orleans is the #5 seed
  • If Detroit and Atlanta finish with the same record, Atlanta is the #5 seed
  • If Atlanta loses both or they lose one and Detroit beats Green Bay, Detroit is the #5 seed
Seed 6
  • If Atlanta wins out or if Atlanta wins one game and Detroit loses to Green Bay, Detroit is the #6 seed
  • If Atlanta loses both or Atlanta loses one game and Detroit beats Green Bay, Atlanta is the #6 seed


 



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 25, 2011 11:31 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Seed 1—Green Bay

Seed 2
  • If San Francisco wins against St. Louis or New Orleans loses one game, San Francisco is the #2 seed.
  • If San Francisco loses to St. Louis and New Orleans wins out, New Orleans is the #2 seed
Seed 3
  • If New Orleans loses either game or San Francisco wins, New Orleans will be the #3 seed
  • If San Francisco loses to St. Louis and New Orleans wins out, San Francisco is the #3 seed
Seed 4
  • The winner of the NY Giants-Dallas game will be the #4 seed
Seed 5
  • If Detroit and Atlanta finish with the same record, Atlanta is the #5 seed
  • If Atlanta loses both or they lose one and Detroit beats Green Bay, Detroit is the #5 seed
Seed 6
  • If Atlanta wins out or if Atlanta wins one game and Detroit loses to Green Bay, Detroit is the #6 seed
  • If Atlanta loses both or Atlanta loses one game and Detroit beats Green Bay, Atlanta is the #6 seed



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 25, 2011 4:21 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Gents....going to post Week 17 Scenarios blog now.   Here's where we are now.  The use of "Wild Card spot" vs. "Playoff berth" for the NFL actually works now.

 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
      
;     &nbs
p;   San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
      
;     &nbs
p;   New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
      
;     &nbs
p;   Detroit Lions -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Seattle,
      
;     &nbs
p;    Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) one GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win
   2) SF tie + one NO loss or tie
   3) one NO loss
  San Francisco clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:  
   1) SF win + two GB losses

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) one NO win or tie
   2) one ATL loss or tie
  New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) two NO wins + SF loss or tie
   2) one NO win + one NO tie + SF loss

 NEW YORK GIANTS
  NY Giants clinch NFC East Division:
   1) NYG win or tie

 DALLAS COWBOYS
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win

 ATLANTA FALCONS
  Atlanta clinches NFC South Division:
   1) two ATL wins + two NO losses
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) one ATL win or tie
   2) one CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO BEARS
  Chicago clinches a wild card spot:
   1) two CHI wins + two ATL losses

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England Patriots -- East Division and a first-round bye.
      
;     &nbs
p;   Houston Texans -- South Division.
      
;     &nbs
p;   Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
      
;     &nbs
p;   Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami,
      
;     &nbs
p;     Jacksonville, San Diego

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win
   2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) BAL win + NE loss

 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie
   2) PIT tie + BAL loss
  Pittsburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

 DENVER BRONCOS
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) OAK loss

 OAKLAND RAIDERS
  Oakland clinches AFC West Division:
   1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie
   2) OAK tie + DEN loss
  Oakland clinches a wild card spot:
   1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie
   2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win
 
 CINCINNATI BENGALS
  Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:
   1) CIN win or tie
   2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
 
 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:
   1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 TENNESSEE TITANS
  Tennessee clinches a wild card spot:
   1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie
   2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie
   3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 25, 2011 2:55 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

If Baltimore hadn't lost to STL or JAX of all teams, they'd have clinched #1 seed most likely by now.
As a Baltimore fan living in Baltimore, I remember well they lost to Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, and San Diego. At this point in the season, only the Jacksonville loss looks truly unforgivable.
Brett, I think in your typo correcting post, you made another error actually. Neither scenario is alive because NE is 12-3
That's funny I made that mistake because I was debating whether or not to add two Bal wins to scenarios (a) and (b), and add two NE losses to scenarios (c) and (d). I eventually decided they were too obvious to add! If only I had added them, I probably would have caught my mistake before it was made. I read Joe's comment about my scenario (c) possibly having relevance in the late evening/early morning, but must not have been paying attention to the fact that the comment was made before the Pats-Dolphins game went final.
 (I'm pointing this out because of your :( when no one corrected your last typo)
Ha. Always correct my typos, or mistakes!

BAL still clinched [the tiebreaker over New England] but it is a different scenario
It's my scenario (a).

a)  12-4 each with NE win (vs. Mia) + NE loss (vs. Buf) + 2 Baltimore wins (vs. Cle, at Cin):
NE best case SoV: 88-102 + 2 common results. (going into week 16)
Bal worst case SoV: 90-100 + 2 common results. (going into week 16)



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 25, 2011 1:29 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Happy Holidays to my fellow blog posters.

Looking at the week 17 AFC matchups, the only AFC team that can clinch anything from the 1 PM games is NE, where NE can clinch the #1 seed with a win/tie over BUF.  Oops, IND could also clinch the first pick in the draft with a loss to JAX.

Here's what could happen as the result of the 1 PM AFC games:

NYJ is eliminted with a loss/tie or with a TEN win
TEN is eliminated with a loss/tie

This actually makes all four of the late AFC games very meaningful to all the playoff contenders, whether it's for clinching a playoff spot or for a better playoff seeding.



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 25, 2011 1:03 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Bengals cannot clinch before their game; if they lose they require an oAK or DEN loss



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 25, 2011 9:03 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

sorry for the double post-- the system got wonky!



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 25, 2011 9:02 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Oh absolutely nygsb42! That's what makes the NFL so great! It just struck me that that particular scenario would have been so different. Because of the way it swung the tiebreakers against the Jets, it had the impact of 2 losses (at least!). The Bears-Broncos game was even more inexcusable. That was an utter mental blunder on Marion Barber's case to run of bounds in the last 2 minutes of regulation. If he doesn't, the Bears win and the scenarios in both conferences are different today.

I'm sorry for those hoping for armegeddon in Week 17, but if memory serves me correct this is still seems better than last year.

One question that I'm still not sure of -- is it possible the Bengals would have clinched AFC#6 by their 4:15 kickoff, or is that contingent on the Oakland and Denver results?

Also, moving the Falcons to 4:15 is interesting. They also may have nothing to play for by then, and can take the opportunity to rest players. That one doesn't make sense to me.     



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 25, 2011 9:00 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Oh absolutely nygsb42! That's what makes the NFL so great! It just struck me that that particular scenario would have been so different. Because of the way it swung the tiebreakers against the Jets, it had the impact of 2 losses (at least!). The Bears-Broncos game was even more inexcusable. That was an utter mental blunder on Marion Barber's case to run of bounds in the last 2 minutes of regulation. If he doesn't, the Bears win and the scenarios in both conferences are different today.

I'm sorry for those hoping for armegeddon in Week 17, but if memory serves me correct this is still seems better than last year. 

One question that I'm still not sure of -- is it possible the Bengals would have clinched AFC#6 by their 4:15 kickoff, or is that contingent on the Oakland and Denver results?

Also, moving the Falcons to 4:15 is interesting. They also may have nothing to play for by then, and can take the opportunity to rest players. That one doesn't make sense to me.     &n
bsp; 


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