Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 21, 2011 7:22 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Cowboys on conf record 7-5 over 6-6



Since: Dec 21, 2011
Posted on: December 21, 2011 7:01 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Question?

What if Cowboys beat Phi and lose Giants, Giants also win this weekend.  Atlanta loses out and Detroit wins 1 game.  That puts only teams at 9-7 as Cowboys, Giants, & Falcons assuming others lose somewhere (Sea/Chi).  Giants win division, so who gets wildcard with Cowboys-Falcons both at 9-7?



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 21, 2011 6:01 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS



Guys....i typically use "Clinches Playoff Berth" but for this week i copied the version the NFL was going to publish which uses "Wild Card spot".  Prefer Clinches Playoff Berth.  No biggie though.
I thought that was the case, which is why I looked at how nfl.com and the factbook were presented.

No biggie indeed.

 
 



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 21, 2011 5:41 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

nygbsb42
I did double check that 4-way 9-7 tie involving NYJ, CIN, TEN, and SD with all four teams finishing at 7-5 AC record.  In looking at the common opponents among the teams (BAL, NYJ, DEN, BUF)  SD and TEN tie at 4-1 and CIN and NYJ are 3-2.  SD beat BAL, BUF, JAX and 1-1 vs DEN.  TEN has wins over BUF, BAL, and DEN and 1-1 vs JAX..  So it would come down to an SoV between TEN and SD.  I haven't checked the SoV numbers on SD yet.



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2011 5:19 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Thanks NYGSB42.  I get confused on teams that can use other teams to clinch.  2 teams I am okay with but is there any way to get better for 3 teams?




Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 21, 2011 5:02 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Ryanmarcantonio,
If DET wins, SEA cannot catch them. This means that SEA needs ATL to lose out to 9-7. If ATL loses out, SEA was beaten by them, so they need CHI to win out to 9-7, so ATL is eliminated via conf record and then SEA beat CHI h2h. If CHI loses, that 3 way tie can't happen, so ATL would win tiebreaker h2h. ARI cannot add to the tiebreaker because SEA at 9-7 means they beat ARI in week 17. 



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 21, 2011 4:47 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

GW,
In the 8-8 scenario, DEN owns a very big SoV advantage over everyone else.
In the 9-7 scenario, DEN and OAK I am pretty sure have clinched (and if not are a couple results away) SoV over CIN or TEN or NYJ. Any tiebreak involving SD actually goes to common games (amazingly, SD, TEN, CIN, and NYJ ALL played BAL, BUF, DEN, JAX!) where SD wins or ties vs TEN pending TEN vs. JAX result. So that tie at 9-7 is not actually as exciting as you had hoped. However, I sure do want to see Crennel and the Chiefs march into Denver and shock Tebow Nation and win the first 4 way tie division ever! 



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2011 4:36 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Can anyone explain can be eliminated with a (Detroit win and a Chicago loss).


I think I am missing something in the wording.    &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;    



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 21, 2011 4:25 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

OK everyone, I'm going to  throw out a poosible scenario where there is a 4-way 8-8 tie in the AFC West and a 4-way 8-8 tie for the last AFC wild card.

A 4-way tie at 8-8 in the AFC West would result in KC winning the AFC West based on the 4-way h2h/div record at 4-2, where the best the others can do is 3-3.  Assuming that the other 3 teams split h2h and tie division record.  DEN would go into the 8-8 wild card round due to better record vs. common opponents over OAK and SD.

Then you have the four 8-8 teams, CIN, NYJ, TEN, and DEN,  h2h sweep doesn't apply, as DEN lost to TEN, but defeated NYJ and CIN. All four teams are tied at 6-6 AFC record.  Common opponents is N/A. so we come down to a 4-way SoV.  This will be fun to figure out.

Another strange scenario, involes a 4-way 9-7 tie for the last AFC wild card, but then the 4-way 8-8 AFC West tie wouldn't occur in that scenario.  In that scenario, TEN and any one of OAK/DEN/SD would finish at a 7-5 AFC record.  NYJ and CIN could finish with an AFC record 7-5 or 6-6. 

Scenario 1: all four teams finish at 7-5 AFC record.
1. 4-way SoV 

Scenario 2: NYJ finishes 6-6 in AFC
1.  NYJ out, then a 3-way Sov with CIN, TEN, and DEN/OAK/SD

Scenario 3: CIN finishes 6-6 in AFC
1. CIN out, then a 3-way SoV with NYJ. TEN, DEN/OAK/SD

Scenario 4: NYJ and CIN finish at 6-6 AFC record, eliminates both NYJ and CIN based on AFC record.  Then 2- way ties are resolved:
1. TEN & DEN: TEN gets the wc due to h2h over DEN
2. TEN & OAK: TEN wins common opponents 4-1 to 3-2 
3. TEN & SD:  Comes down to SoV

Week 17 for the AFC may not come down to the above mentioned scenarios, but if it does, we'll have an interesting week 17.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 21, 2011 4:23 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Another seeding scenario:

Houston can clinch #3 with:
  1. Win/tie
  2. DEN tie/loss
  3. Clinch SOV over DEN, by getting 9.5 or 10 of the following 10 results (all results count as 1):
  • JAX d TEN
  • CLE d BAL
  • PIT d STL
  • ATL d NO
  • TB d CAR
  • OAK d KC
  • DET d SD
  • NYG d NYJ
  • GB d CHI
  • WAS d MIN

Houston getting 9 results is no good, as that tie results in looking at SOS, which DEN has clinched over Houston.

Finally, in talking SOS, I looked into the IND - MIN - STL ties for #1 draft choice.  In the week 15 thread it was reported that IND needed some results to clinch [the worst] SOS, but I did not find that to be the case.  I'm showing IND clinches worst SOS against both MIN & STL at 2-14, 2-13-1, and 3-13.  In the event that IND ends at 3-13, I believe MIN has clinched a worse SOS than STL at 2-14.  However, at 2-13-1, if MIN ties WAS, and STL ties SFO, I think SOS could tie.  In that case, STL would get the #1 pick due to a worse conf record than MIN.  Chime in if you disagree, as I find the draft order explanation totally confusing.



The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com