Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 21, 2011 3:59 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

A few random, unrelated thoughts... first off, I'm sorry to see the conversation has gotten a little chippy.  I enjoy the comments from all the regulars, mostly because everybody has a slightly different focus about tiebreaking matters.  I don't really care either way whether it pertains to scenarios or procedures or terminology.  On some level it is all related.

Concerning clinching, it's a minor point, but Joe left out NE clinching homefield with a tie and losses by HOU, PIT, and BAL.

Concerning eliminations, I agree with what's been previously posted for the NFC.  For the AFC, I don't remember seeing anything.  So here's my take:

Kansas City
Eliminated with
  1. Tie/loss
  2. DEN win/tie

San Diego

Eliminated with

  1. Loss + NYJ win/tie
  2. Loss + CIN win/tie
  3. Tie + DEN win/tie + NYJ win
  4. Tie + DEN win/tie + CIN win

Note: SD cannot win AFCW given a Denver victory over Buffalo.

Oakland

Eliminated with:

  1. Loss + NYJ win/tie
  2. Loss + CIN win/tie
  3. Tie + DEN win + NYJ win
  4. Tie + DEN win + CIN win

Tennessee

Eliminated with:

  1. Loss + NYJ win/tie
  2. Loss + CIN win/tie
  3. Tie + NYJ win
  4. Tie + CIN win

One way Tennessee stays alive with a loss by the fact that OAK and SD can tie in Week 17, allowing a tie between only NYJ, CIN, and TEN.  NYJ & TEN have 3-2 common games records (vs. CIN 2-3), and NYJ cannot clinch SOV over TEN this week.  KC could be involved (inferior conf rec), and I don't think OAK can clinch SOV over TEN either.

I also agree that both NYJ and CIN cannot clinch or be eliminated this weekend.




Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2011 3:58 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

is already eliminated from WC, so you would only need the div elim scenario.



Since: Dec 21, 2011
Posted on: December 21, 2011 3:15 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Here are other clinching/eliminations scenarios for Week 16:

AFC
HOU can clinch no worse than the AFC #3 seed with a win or a DEN loss
PIT can clinch no worse than the AFC #5 seed with a win or a NYJ loss
TEN will be eliminated from AFC playoff contention with a loss or a NYJ win
OAK & SD will be eliminated from AFC West Div. contention with a loss or a DEN win
OAK & SD also will be eliminated from AFC playoff contention with a loss, DEN win, and NYJ win
KC will be eliminated from AFC West Div. contention with a loss or DEN win
KC also will be eliminated from AFC playoff contention with a loss, DEN win, and NYJ win


NFC   
CHI will be eliminated from NFC playoff contention with a loss or wins by ATL & DET
NYG will be eliminated from NFC East contention with a loss & DAL win
NYG also will be eliminated from NFC playoff contention with a loss, DAL win, ATL win, & DET win
SEA & ARI will be eliminated from NFC playoff contention with a loss or wins by both ATL & DET
PHI will be eliminated from NFC East Div. contention with a loss or DAL win
PHI will be eliminated from NFC playoff contention with a loss and wins by DAL, ATL, & DET




Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 21, 2011 1:19 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Guys....i typically use "Clinches Playoff Berth" but for this week i copied the version the NFL was going to publish which uses "Wild Card spot".  Prefer Clinches Playoff Berth.  No biggie though.

Joe



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 21, 2011 12:27 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

why does it not say Oakland win (So Den wouldn't win the division)?

ryan,

Because DEN does not need OAK to clinch a play-off spot, which is the issue of that aprticualr line in the scenarios.




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 21, 2011 9:42 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Good points, agn, and perhaps a "happy medium" might be that those teams can clinch AT LEAST a wild card spot
Yup. "at least wild-card spot" is equivalent to "play-off spot". Thta was how Joe used to report it.

I will say this though, nfl.com uses "y - Clinches Wild Card" on their standings page when referring to BAL,PIT, NO, so that is consistent with Joe. On their play-off page however  they use x-c linched playoff" for those teams. So they are inconsistent

cbssports.com uses "x- clinched playoff berth" and does not distinguish between teams that can and cannot win division.

In the NFL factbook, mid-season they use '# - clinched Play-off berth' and do not distinguish between teams that can and cannot win division, until the final season standings.

Perhaps we need a play-off scenario wording blog, which would establish this along with the order of reporting win/tie/loss and should results be posted for the team needing to WIN or the Team needing to Lose.... so many issues.



Just kidding



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 21, 2011 8:34 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

nygsb42, I have to think Giants-Cowboys will be the flex game if it matters, even though they played on SNF a few weeks ago. Denver-KC would be number 2, in that win-and-in scenario.

The problem this year is what happens if the Cowboys, Broncos, Falcons and Lions all clinch playoff spots this coming weekend.  The way the AFC#6 tiebreakers are, there could be no true "win and in" scenario going into Week 17. It's possible for the Jets, based on Bretteis6's SoV calculations, but unlikely. I can't imagine they'd put the Jets-Dolphins on SNF in that instance, but you never know!



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2011 8:33 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie


why does it not say Oakland win (So Den wouldn't win the division)?




Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 21, 2011 8:13 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Minimum of 1? That would make for a boring final weekend! I'm thinking maximum of 5 would be more fun! (especially if it includes a shot at an 8-8 4 way division...who would be prime time game, giants cowboys or tebow vs crennel?)



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 21, 2011 7:42 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I mentioned this in the Week 15 blog (it got largely buried in all the dreck about the H2H discussion), but I don't think there's any way the Jets or Cincinnati can clinch OR be eliminated in Week 16, making then the only 2 teams to fall into that category.

Denver, obviously, cannot be eliminated either but they can clinch the divsion.

The NFC is much more clear-cut (at least for this coming week).  

It'll be really interesting to see how many playoff spots will still be available in the final week (minimum right now of one).  


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com