Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
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Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

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Comments

Since: Oct 25, 2006
Posted on: December 21, 2011 7:27 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Good points, agn, and perhaps a "happy medium" might be that those teams can clinch AT LEAST a wild card spot (only teams that could still potentially take their division).  If a team can only clinch a wild card spot and not the division, then the wording stays as is.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 21, 2011 7:14 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Just a comment on scenario (NOT procedure) wording:


Up until this week Joe has consistently used "play-off berth" in his scenarios, for teams which have not secured a division championship.

This week however Joe changes to "wild-card spot".


I think this should be refined.

While BAL, PIT, NO, have clinched a play-off berth, they have not clinched a wild-card spot. Nor will DEN, or ATL clinch a wild-card spot this week (ATL might, but that was not described in the scenario, since it would require NO win/tie.)

In fact, only DET can be accurately said to be in a position to clinch a wild-card spot, since they cannot  win the NFC Norris

I think, as in the past, we should reserve clinched wild-card spot for clubs that cannot win their division.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 21, 2011 6:14 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

 If Cincinnati and the Jets each win this week, the Jets can gain control of their playoff destiny by clinching SoV outright over Cincinnati (SoV at 10-6 each).

 

 The Jets need 5.5 of 21 SoV results remaining in the final two weeks. 12 results come this weekend, so there is a decent chance it could happen then. (Tied games count as half results.)

 

 A tie in SoV + win in SoS is very unlikely for the Jets; Cincinnati needs only 2.5 of 16 SoS results remaining to clinch SoS in the “SoV is tied” scenario. Furthermore, 12 of the 19 games (2 counting double) that can help the Jets clinch SoV, SIMULTANEOUSLY help Cincinnati clinch SoS.

 

To clinch SoV outright:

The Jets would need 5.5 (or more) of the following 21 results (12 in Week 16). Ties count as half results.

 

To clinch at least a tie in SoV:

The Jets would need 5.0 results. In the event that SoV does end tied, 2.5 (or more) results from the SoS games would clinch SoS outright for Cincinnati.

 

      
;     &nbs
p;    Week 16

SoV results for NYJ (7), SoS results for Cin (8)

(These games simultaneously help NYJ clinch SoV and help Cin clinch SoS.)

 

Mia win (at NE):  double result for SoV and SoS

KC win (vs. Oak)

Dal win (vs. Phi)

StL loss (at Pit):  double result for SoS

Ind loss (vs. Hou)

Sea loss (vs. SF)

 

Additional SoV results for NYJ (5)

SD win (at Det)

Buf win (vs. Den)

Jac win (at Ten)

Was win (vs. Min)

Cle loss (at Bal)

 

(No additional SoS results for Cin)

 

      
;     &nbs
p;   Week 17

SoV results for NYJ (7), SoS results for Cin (8)

(These games simultaneously help NYJ clinch SoV and help Cin clinch SoS.)

 

Buf win (at NE):  double result for SoS

SD win (at Oak)

Was win (at Phi)

Cle loss (vs. Pit):  double result for SoV and SoS

Ten loss (at Hou)

StL loss (vs. SF)

 

Additional SoV results for NYJ (2)

Jac win (vs. Ind)

KC win (at Den)

 

(No additional SoS results for Cin)

 

Cincinnati, needing 16.5 SoV results (or 16.0 + SoS tiebreaker), cannot clinch "control of their own destiny" in Week 16.



Since: Nov 26, 2009
Posted on: December 21, 2011 5:43 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Playoff Seed Control:
* denotes that by winning out, the team controls that seed.

NFC
GB (13-1) - 1*,2
SF (11-3) - 1,2*,3
NO (11-3) - 2,3*,5
DAL (8-6) - 4*,5,6,E
ATL (9-5) - 2,3,5*,6,E
DET (9-5) - 5,6*,E
SEA (7-7) - 5,6,E*
CHI (7-7) - 5,6,E*
NYG (7-7) - 4*,E
ARI (7-7) - 5,6,E*
PHI (6-8) - 4,E*

AFC
NE (11-3) - 1*,2,3
BAL (10-4) - 1,2*,3,4,5
HOU (10-4) - 1,2,3*,4
DEN (8-6) - 2,3,4*,6,E
PIT (10-4) - 1,2,3,5*
NYJ (8-6) - 6,E*
CIN (8-6) - 6,E*
TEN (7-7) - 6,E*
OAK (7-7) - 4,6,E*
SD (7-7) - 4,6,E*
KC (6-8) - 4,E*

No team controls the #6 seed in the AFC due to the fact that NYJ and CIN both at 10-6 would come down to SoV, which NYJ leads at the moment but has not clinched.
Two teams control the #4 seed in the NFC due to the fact that, if the NYG win out, they beat DAL (week 17) and have the tiebreaker over them by head-to-head sweep.



Since: Nov 26, 2009
Posted on: December 21, 2011 5:28 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Just a quick note, Joe. You said that SF lost, but they beat PIT 20-3.


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