Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 25, 2011 8:17 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

ApOlogize in advance for multitude of posts. Pillbox, while youre completely right, there are tons of games like that in a season. If the giants hadnt completely laid an egg against Washington, they'd have clinched already. If Chicago hadn't "miraculously" lost to Denver, they'd be 8-6 and one upset by Carolina away from possibly winning the wild card (CHI beats MIN and NO beats ATL). If Baltimore hadn't lost to STL or JAX of all teams, they'd have clinched #1 seed most likely by now. As it is, they still have to win to win the division. Anyway, my point here was only that every game matters significantly, and its hard to go retrospectively pointing out a given one as the key (but with tebow involved, it's tempting isn't it!).



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 25, 2011 8:07 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett, I think in your typo correcting post, you made another error actually. Neither scenario is alive because NE is 12-3 and all ties would be broken at 12-4. BAL still clinched but it is a different scenario (I'm pointing this out because of your :( when no one corrected your last typo)



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 25, 2011 8:04 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

<<However...on your 2nd to last bullet for AFC#6 seed, I think it may be a typo and you meant to say NYJ (not Tennessee) would be #6 seed on common opponents.>>




Hey Joe, regarding KellynMatt's 2nd to last bullet, I believe the Jets would advance on conference record, if only they and the Bengals are 9-7 non-division winnners (though they'd have the common opponents edge too).


For perspective, it's amazing how the Jets losing to Denver impacted their season. They probably would have needed nothing more than a Cincy loss to Baltimore in the final week, had they not blown that game (assuming they could win SoV over Tennessee). But now look at everything that must happen! Tebowed!   



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 25, 2011 7:53 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Gw, my mistake. I partially mixed up Tennessee and Cincy scenarios before i wrote that. Kellynmatt, no way are you the only one! Not only did I want an 8-8 afc west, I wanted 5 teams tied for the afc wild card going into next week, which obviously didn't happen. Oh well! At least I as a NYG fan got my play-in game I wanted for the NFC east! And sadly enough, after tonight's and tomorrow's games should GB and NO win, that play-in game will basically be the only important NFC game, withe the only possible seeding fluctuations being SF/NO for the 2 seed (requiring an sf loss to stl) and ATL or DET for 5/6 seeds (important as both teams would much rather play NYG/DAL than NO, but you would figure DET might find a way to beat the packers practice squad and win that (or ATL losing to CAR isn't out of the question now thanks to the best rookie qb ever..). Happy Holidays to all!!



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 25, 2011 5:56 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

No one caught my typo :(

c)  11-5 each with Bal win (vs. Cle) + Bal loss (at Cin):
NE best case: 83-90 + 3 common results.  (+ 37-43 for best case SoS)
Bal worst case: 83-90 + 3 common results. (+ 39-41 for worst case SoS)

d)  11-5 each with Bal win (vs. Cle) + Bal loss (at Cin):
NE best case: 83-90 + 3 common results.
Bal worst case: 86-87 + 3 common results

SoV scenario (d) should be:

d)  11-5 each with Bal loss (vs. Cle) + Bal win (at Cin):
NE best case: 83-90 + 3 common results.
Bal worst case: 86-87 + 3 common results

All irrelevant now as only scenario (c) is alive and decidedly clinched by Baltimore.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 25, 2011 4:23 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Someone needs some sleep before they type stuff.  That someone is me.:)  Thanks for pointing those out!



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 25, 2011 4:01 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

KellynMatt...

Another small typo in NFC for #3 seed 2nd bullet.  Should be "San Francisco is the #3 seed".

Also...for #6 seed for clarity sake...i would use your wording for #5.  How bout this:

Seed 6
  • If Atlanta wins out or if Atlanta wins one game and Detroit loses to Green Bay, Detroit is the #6 seed
  • If Atlanta loses both and Chicago does not win out Or Atlanta loses one game and Detroit beats Green Bay, Atlanta is the #6 seed
  • If Chicago beats Green Bay & Minnesota and Atlanta loses to New Orleans & Tampa Bay, Chicago is the #6 seed



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 25, 2011 3:19 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Yes, that is a typo.  I guess it is uncoorectable and will live in infamy as one of my many typo's!  Am I the only one disappointed that the AFC West didn't end with four 8-8 teams?



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 25, 2011 2:55 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

KellynMatt...

Good work as usual. and your format is similar to how i've laid out my own notes.

However...on your 2nd to last bullet for AFC#6 seed, I think it may be a typo and you meant to say NYJ (not Tennessee) would be #6 seed on common opponents. 

And yes...I Have OAK already having clinched SOV over NYJ and TEN. 

And theNFLrules....great job on grid as well.  will peruse...but first glance looks good.

Joe

MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HOLIDAYS to ALL!!!!     



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 25, 2011 2:47 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Thanks to those who replied with your contact info.

@Brett and @thenflrules, I still would like to get your contact info too.  As you know I maintain playoffrace.com and I am working on some new features for next season and I would like to get your input on a few things before making them public.  Thanks.

reply to:

TiebreakerContacts@gmail.com


-Cheers
-Jerry





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